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NEW ORLEANS - Kirby Smart and No. 3 UGA football are in the 2026 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans to face No. 6 Ole Miss. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 23 Iowa (+5.5) vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt | ESPN | 12:00 PM, Wednesday| ReliaQuest Bowl
Matt’s Pick: This one could be fun. Or it could be a disaster. I’m not sure which way this one is going. What I do know is that Diego Pavia season is over. He’s checked out. No Heisman. No playoffs. No motivation. I think Iowa will bring their best defensively and I don’t expect to see the usual Pavia in the world-renowned ReliaQuest Bowl. I think Iowa would love nothing more than to play physical defense and beat an SEC team to end the season. They may not win, but I’ll take the Hawkeyes to play hard and keep this one close. Iowa (+5.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Iowa’s defense allowed the Hawkeyes to keep it close against some of the best teams in college football this season. Iowa didn’t lose by more than five points this season and it played Indiana, Oregon and USC. That makes this game interesting to choose.
I don’t really trust Vanderbilt. Can they be the first team to beat Iowa by six points? Vegas knows what it is doing with some of these lines. I’ll unconfidently take Vanderbilt (-5.5). I feel like this game will mean something to them.
I am rooting for Iowa, by the way.
Dean’s Pick: The SEC needs this one. I don't think Iowa has seen something like Diego Pavia lately. And even if you have you'll have a hard time stopping this guy. Give me Vanderbilt (-5.5) here.
Arizona State (+3) vs. Duke | CBS | 2:00 PM, Wednesday | Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Matt’s Pick: Give me Duke here. The Blue Devils are ACC Champs and are looking for more. I like their quarterback and they appear to be playing some of their best football of the season. I’m not sold on the Arizona State offense right now. Give me Duke to finish the season strong with a big Sun Bowl win. Duke (-3).
Ryan’s Pick: I didn’t know that there was a Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, but I am all about that. I like Duke (-3) here. I really like their quarterback Darian Mensah, and the momentum of that ACC Championship should carry over. I like Arizona State’s coach, yet I am not so high on that team. I think they were one of the more disappointing squads this year.
Dean’s Pick: Gross. This game seems to be on life support each year, and yet CBS continues to shove it down our throats each New Year's Eve. At least there is a sugary cereal involved. I'll take Duke (-3).
No. 18 Michigan (+7) vs. No. 13 Texas | ABC | 3:00 PM, Wednesday | Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Matt’s Pick: I’ll take Texas. Too many bad vibes right now in Ann Arbor. Texas was a borderline playoff team with Arch Manning looking to end the season on a strong note. The Horns are still playing for now. Michigan has their eyes on next year. A loss to Michigan would be embarrassing. I expect Texas to come out strong and out this one away early. Texas (-7).
Ryan’s Pick: I am all over Texas here. Michigan has been a headline disaster recently. Texas is angry that it didn’t make the playoff. You gotta beat Florida, guys. I am going with the Longhorns (-7), big.
Dean’s Pick: This is a curious one. I'm certain neither of these teams really want to be here. Texas is coping with a season they wasted with a loss to the Gators (who only played well against CFP-level teams). Michigan is on its third head coach in four seasons - Yikes. Give me Texas (-7), but a loss here would be... bad for Sark.
Nebraska (+14) vs. No. 15 Utah | ESPN | 3:30 PM, Wednesday | SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Matt’s Pick: This screams way too many points. Is Nebraska this bad? 14-point underdogs? This was supposed to be a small step forward. Year two of Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola. What a disaster. They can;t block anyone up front and they’re still soft everywhere else. Utah can play and they at least know how to win. Watch them embarrass Nebraska. Another lost season for the Cornhuskers. Utah (-14).
Ryan’s Pick: This is super icky. No starting QB for the Cornhuskers. No real head coach for Utah. I do not like it as far as picking goes. Give me the Utes (-14).
Dean’s Pick: Lol. Nebraska. Remember when they mattered?
Me either. Utah (-14) - big.
No. 10 Miami (+9.5) vs. No. 2 Ohio State | ESPN | 7:30, Wednesday | Cotton Bowl - CFP Quarterfinal
Matt’s Pick: I don’t like this line. I think Miami can hang with Ohio State for four quarters. I don’t see them winning the game, but their defense should keep them in it. That front seven is elite and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them give Ohio State some trouble. If they can get one or two explosive plays on offense this one could come down to the wire. I’m taking Ohio State to win because I don’t beleive in Carson Beck against that Buckeye defense, but I think the ‘Canes defense keeps them in it and leads to a cover. Miami (+9.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I really went back and forth with this. I wanted to take Miami. I think their defense is mean and can help keep the Hurricanes in this game.
I have now been convinced by people that Ohio State is going to crush them. The Buckeye defense is even better. I have a hard time seeing Carson Beck putting on a great performance. I think Mark Fletcher is a good back, but the Buckeyes are going to be too much. I am rolling with Ohio State (-9.5).
Dean’s Pick: So I am going to take the Canes here because I think this game will get eaten up with two good defenses. It's clear Ohio State ain't what they used to be on offense. It is clear Carson Beck ain't what he used to be after that injury a season ago. And yet the Canes have chance to get to the desert for a CFP semifinal. I don't think Miami does that, but I do think they keep it close enough to grab some points. Take Miami (+9.5) and the points.
No. 5 Oregon (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech | 12:00 PM, Thursday | Orange Bowl - CFP Quarterfinal
Matt’s Pick: Call it an upset if you want, but I’m taking Texas Tech in this one. This is nothing against Oregon, but I think the Red Raiders are strong enough defensively to keep them in this game and possibly win it. They’re a well-rounded team that plays hard and can make teams quit. I like this Oregon team and a Ducks win wouldn’t surprise me, but I think Texas Tech is for real. They’re in underdog mode, and I expect them to play Oregon tight the entire way. They’re outstanding on defense and they can match the Ducks physically. Give me Texas Tech (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is the toughest one of the week to make a selection on. That Texas Tech defense is legit. The question about the Red Raiders is how they are going to operate on offense against a far better opponent than they have dealt with all season long?
I really like this Texas Tech team. I have enjoyed watching them. They shocked me when they crushed Utah on the road, and I think Jacob Rodriguez should have been a Heisman finalist.
Oregon is a little too good for me to take Texas Tech over them. Ducks (-2.5) in a close one.
Dean’s Pick: This is a tough one. These two are the closest two in these quarters. I think Oregon is the better team. I'm not pumped up about the second half of the JMU game, but they slammed the former presidents in the first half. But TTU isn't JMU.
What do we know about Texas Tech? We know they were good enough to beat everyone but Arizona State. In that game they didn't have their starting quarterback and lost by four on the toad. Other than that game they weren't challenged much.
So it is possible they are the best team in college football. It is also possible that someone that couldn't get it done against Arizona State isn't that great. I think BYU is pretty good - and Texas Tech smashed them twice and Utah once. They've got a really good defense.
But I have to say we just don't know much about them. That's all. I'll take the Ducks (-2.5) to cover here.
No. 9 Alabama (+7) vs. No. 1 Indiana | ESPN | 4:00 PM, Thursday | Rose Bowl - CFP Quarterfinal
Matt’s Pick: I think Alabama’s spent. They gave everything they had against Oklahoma, and if we’re being honest, the Sooners did everything they could to give Alabama that game. I think Indiana is seeing a big opportunity to make a statement against a classic SEC powerhouse. I think the Hoosier defense will give Alabama trouble all game long. They’re goopd enough on offense to where they could cruse late in the game. This one could be tight for three quarters, but Indiana’s just better. They’ll prove it and come away with their first playoff win.
Ryan’s Pick: Alabama had a good day on offense against Oklahoma last week. The Tide needed that. I just don’t trust this Alabama team. The line being seven instead of 6.5 makes this really tough for me.
It is go time for Indiana. Fernando Mendoza, prove to me that you are not the weakest Heisman winner in the last 15 years. Hoosiers (-7). I think Indiana will be too much for Alabama’s defense, even if the Tide have a good offensive day.
Dean’s Pick: Alabama is a perfectly fine set of players. They are limited in ways that previous Alabama teams have not been. My issue in this game is more about Alabama than Indiana. If the Hoosiers are for real (they certainly look like they are) they should handle the Tide the same way Georgia did.
That's what I expect. This is a perfectly fine Alabama team. They'll probably fight Indiana for much or most of the game because that's still in their DNA. I wouldn't be shocked with an Alabama win, but I would be slightly surprised. Alabama has not played well as a team for a while.
You can't say that about Indiana. Then again Bama didn't close the season with Purdue and Wisconsin. Give me Indiana (-7.5) to cover the line.
No. 6 Ole Miss (+6.5) vs. No. 3 Georgia | ESPN | 8:00 PM, Thursday | Sugar Bowl - CFP Quarterfinal
Matt’s Pick: I’m rolling with Georgia here. The Dawgs are locked in and have their sights set on more. They’re healthy, confident, and have plenty of experience on this stage. Half the Ole Miss roster and staff have one foot out the door. The Rebels are still banged up and are going to have a very hard time winning this game if they can’t run the football. They can move the football, but just like in October, I don’t see them being able to score enough for four quarters to come out on top. Georgia’s been the better team all season and should come out of this Sugar Bowl victorious. Georgia (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I have been pretty open over the last few weeks about my feelings towards this game. I think Georgia is going to win, and that has not changed. I have the Dawgs (-6.5) covering as well.
Since the last matchup between these two, Georgia’s defense has only gotten better. The offense for the Dawgs has done enough to win every game besides one. In the first meeting, enough just so happened to be 43 points and no punts.
Georgia’s defense is better. No Lane Kiffin matters. Dawgs win by multiple scores.
Dean’s Pick: I think the group think here is a little concerning, but this line nearly got to eight, and now it has dropped to six and could get down to 5.5. We will see. BetQL thinks this should be UGA -8. The money is on the Dawgs 67% to 33%. So it is possible the public has seen the line and thinks it is too high at 6.5.
All that said, this game seems like the Texas game to me - something like that. I think Georgia has proven they've improved in a way that is obvious on defense. That's going right at Ole Miss' strength.
In addition, this entire run of time has been about Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin and all of the stupidity involved with that disaster. I expect a significant portion of this team in Baton Rouge next fall.
This is the most important game for the Rebels in 65 years. Does that matter Thursday? Are these guys carrying the weight of the last 60 years of Ole Miss football with them? I don't think so because the best player on the team wasn't on the team last year, and he probably won't be on the team next year.
This is a band of pirates without their captain on the high seas. They know how to grab the cargo and take hostages.
Kirby and these Dawgs aren't about taking prisoners. I'll take the Dawgs (-6.5) to cover and advance. Process over chaos.
Season ATS
Matt - 50-82
Ryan - 70-62
Dean - 60-72
Week 14 Picks (Championship Week)
Playoff Quarterfinals Week
Playoff Semifinals
National Championship
