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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 3 UGA football are headed back to Atlanta to take on Kalen DeBoer and his No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday afternoon in the 2025 SEC Championship Game. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Kennesaw State (+1.5) at Jacksonville State | CBSSN|7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Let’s go. Year one under Jerry Mack and the Owls are playing for the conference title. This is a team that can score, they play tough defense, and they find ways to win. Their only conference loss is to Jax State. Now, the Owls are coming for revenge. These Owls are hooting and they’ve coming for that trophy. They’ve got more talent on offense than you might think. Amari Odom is playing terrific at quarterback. They’ve got some veteran leaders. I think they’ll get the job done on the road and bring that Conference USA crown to Kennesaw. OWLS (+1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is for Matt. Give me Kennesaw State (+1.5). Hootie Hoo!! I am not doing any research for this pick. This is all heart and vibes. Matt has been making sure we have kept up with the Owls this season. They own Tuesday night. I was really hoping that they would end up being the top seed in the conference so we could go to this.
Dean’s Pick: I've got the Gamecocks, Jacksonville State (-1.5) getting a win over the Owls at home this weekend. Matt can talk all he wants about "hooting". The only thing that makes me think about is Hootie and the Blowfish, and we only have a few rules at Dawg Post.
1. No mustaches
2. No pooping in the hotel bathroom
3. No Hootie and the Blowfish
We have these rules for a reason.
Troy (+22.5) at No. 19 James Madison | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: That’s a lot of points but I don’t even care. Troy lost to Old Dominion 33-0 just a few weeks ago. They’re not a good football team. The Dukes have a respectable team and have been blowing teams out left and right this year. They can really run the football and shouldn’t have trouble doing it against a Troy defense that gave up 156 yards on the ground recently to a bad Georgia State team. Ole James Madison is going to be proud of his Dukes on Friday night after their big win. James Madison (-22.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going to take James Madison here. The Dukes have blown out a lot of teams. I am weary of all those points, but this feels like a fun pick. Dukes (-22.5).
Dean’s Pick: I think there is so much going on with JMU right now that the Dukes will be slightly distracted, so I am going to take the slightly more than three touchdowns and run with it. Troy (+22.5).
No. 20 North Texas (-2.5) at No. 21 Tulane | ABC | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Rolling with North Texas here. They’ve got a really balanced offense and a quarterback who has been terrific all season long. They’re not great defensively, but I’m just not sure Tulane can score with them. I think this one could be a really fun shootout, but I’m taking North Texas and Drew Mestemaker to light up the scoreboard again and get the job done. It won’t be easy on the road, but I think North Texas has been the better team this season and will leave town with a conference championship. North Texas (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I’m looking forward to this one. I like North Texas and the Mean Green’s high-powered offense. They have scored 50 points in seven games this season. That is ridiculous no matter the competition. This is probably the best game on Friday night. It also could very well be a de facto playoff game with the winner getting the 12-seed. Give me the Mean Green (-2.5).
Dean’s Pick: Man, North Texas can score. I'm going to tell you what. If you like offense they are the team to watch. The Mean Green can wiggle their way into the CFP with a few things going their way. Step one is winning Friday night in the Big Easy. Give me the Mean Green (-2.5).
UNLV (+3.5) at Boise State | FOX | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: It’s never easy to play up in Boise, but this isn’t the same Broncos team we’ve seen in the past. Ole Dan Mullen has his Runnin Rebels 1-2 and have been playing better football for most of the season. Even on the road, I think UNLV gets the cover and a possible win. UNLV (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: One of the things about these Group of Five conference championships that I am not a huge fan of is that they are on campuses. If this was a neutral site, I’d confidently take UNLV. Since they are on the road, I am going to unconfidently roll with Dan Mullen and the Rebels. They are just playing a little bit better right now. They have won close games, blowouts, on the road and at home. I like UNLV (+3.5) and those points.
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take Dan Mullen's squad here. Nevada-Las Vegas has survived at lot this season, and I think they'll get close enough to winning Friday night - that's if they can survive the winter slush on the way to the game. Nothing says you've made it to the big time like playing in upper 30s with a winter mixture of snow and rain. Gross. Rebels (+3.5).
No. 11 BYU (+13.5) vs. No. 5 Texas Tech | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is my first dumb pick of the week. I’m rolling with BYU here to keep this game close. This Texas Tech team is for real and are playing some of the best football in the country. BYU knows how to win, but it hasn’t always looked great. For some reason, I think BYU fights hard and keeps this one closer than the experts think. Unfortunately, part of me could see a giant Red Raider win. There’s a lot on the line for the Cougars so I think they’ll bring their best. BYU (+13.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This one is definitely tough. I pretty confidently took the Red Raiders to cover the line in the last matchup a month ago. That line was 10.5 I believe. Give me Texas Tech (13.5) again because of that defense. I have been a believer in this team ever since it crushed Utah on the road a while back. BYU needs to run the ball to have a successful day, and that is going to be tough to do against this defense. BYU could only muster 67 yards on the ground the first time around. I think this game will be a little higher scoring on each side than the last.
Dean’s Pick: Lots of defending this week in the way of BYU not letting its coach go to Happy Valley this week. A lot on the line for Notre Dame, Miami and beyond in this one. For me this is only about BYU either knocking the Irish out or not. I don't think anyone else has an issue. But that won't be a concern by the end of the game. TTU (+13.5).
Miami (OH) (+2.5) vs. Western Michigan | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m not really sold on either team. Obviously. These are two teams that are on the same level playing field. Western Michigan took the loss earlier this season so I expect them to bounce back and win this game in Detroit. Neither team is all that great, but I’ll take Western to win a tight one. I don’t know why. Western Michigan (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I’ve got Western Michigan (-2.5) in this one. I haven’t watched either of these teams. I have done little research. Western Michigan wins the rematch.
Dean’s Pick: I don't care. You don't either. Pass me one of them Detroit Style Pizzas. Western Michigan (-2.5).
Duke (+2.5) vs. No. 16 Virginia | ABC | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me Virginia. This is a well-coaches team with a defense that could give the Blue Devils trouble. Duke has been a little too inconsistent for me. The Cavaliers beat the Blue Devils by 17 points just three weeks ago. Then they looked strong against a bad Virginia Tech team. I’m not trying to overthink this one. Virginia (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Virginia went to Durham and handled business just a few weeks ago. I have no real reason to think that it won’t happen again on a neutral field, especially with a small line. I have Virginia (-2.5). I like Duke’s quarterback. This team can score. I just can’t pick Duke for some reason.
Dean’s Pick: Gross. A Tech-Miami ACCCG would have been at least some fun. But no, the ACC had to go full-on 1-AA on us and give us something that's more likely to be an ACC Tournament Championship Game from the early 1980s. I've got the Hoos (-2.5) in this one. And I will have this as a second screen... I just won't be monitoring it a ton.
No. 2 Indiana (+6.5) vs. No. 1 Ohio State | FOX | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Dumb pick No. 2. For some reason, I have a gut feeling Indiana keeps this close. They’re for real and the best offense this elite Ohio State defense has seen all year. The smart pick here is Ohio State. There’s no reason to doubt this Buckeye team. On Saturday night I’ve got a feeling I’ll be feeling real dumb when I see Ohio State win this game by double-digits. Still, I’m rocking with the Hoosiers. Their backs are against the wall. Nobody expects them to win. This is the position they want to be in. Ohio State will probably win, but I think this could possibly be a three or four point game. Give me the Hoosiers to find a way to keep it close. I’m sure I’ll regret this, but I’ll take Indiana (+6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am not going to say that Indiana is about to get exposed, because I think the Hoosiers are a very good team, but Ohio State is the best team in the country. The defense for the Buckeyes is going to be the difference here. Indiana has not played a defense like this- one of the best units in the country.
Indiana will put up a good fight, but I am taking Ohio State (-6.5) to cover this, even if it doesn’t come until the fourth quarter.
Dean’s Pick: One of the things I will be paying attention to regarding this game is if it outdraws UGA-Bama. It really should considering this is No. 1 vs. No. 2, but we will see. Ohio State should win this game, but IU is better than they were a season ago. It is going to be hard for anyone to score on the Buckeyes, but if anyone can it's Indiana. We got this line pretty high - it's at 4 right now - so I feel good about going with Indiana (+6.5) getting nearly a TD.
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Alabama | ABC | 4:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: The biggest game of the weekend. Georgia and Alabama. In Atlanta. History says Georgia will get their heart ripped out, but I have a feeling the Dawgs finally get it done. Their defense has improved, Gunner Stockton will be locked in after a tough game last week, and there’s still a lot on the line. They need to beat Alabama more often and I expect them to finally get it done. There’s no reason they can’t. Georgia (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going to keep it rather brief here, but I have Georgia (-2.5). Everything I know about Georgia-Bama has me leaning towards Alabama. BUT, everything I know about football when you throw the logos out tells me that Georgia is the better team and will win the rematch
Dean’s Pick: I'm taking Georgia (-2.5) to win and cover. The explanation? Frankly, I think Georgia is the better team. To some degree it feels like if Kirby will just get out of the way and let the game play out Georgia will win. Then again, that's happened once.
The better team has only one this game twice this decade - 2020 in Tuscaloosa and 2021 in Indianapolis. Other than that Alabama has upset Georgia four times (2021 Atlanta, 2023 Atlanta 2024 Tuscaloosa and 2025 Athens). Another upset would be comical if it didn't bring up serious questions about what's going on with this game, specifically, and Kirby.
There is no explanation for two programs this close to have this many wins on one side and not the other. So I am going with what looks like a slightly fresher (if you want to call it that) Georgia team. Bama has survived Jordan-Hare a few times before beating UGA in Atlanta. But man, Ty Simpson was really rocked a few times. Simpson is very, very good.
But Georgia has improved quite a deal since these two met early in the season in Athens. How much will that matter? It should matter a considerable amount. In addition, Georgia needs to force the Tide to be the one burdened with mistakes. The way Georgia's defense has improved since these two last met gives me reason to think Simpson could have more pressure than Alabama would like.
Pressure causes mistakes. All of the work of the 2025 regular season has built to this moment. The season isn't over with a win or a loss, but the entire point of younger players getting more reps in games leading up to this one was for them to perform when the lights are the brightest.
We've reached that point. Now is the time to get it done.
Season ATS
Matt - 42-73
Ryan - 63-52
Dean - 51-64
Week 14 Picks (Championship Week)
