Who Will Win? The Georgia Bulldogs Take on the Texas Longhorns in a Top-Ten Fight
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football have another top-ten fight Between the Hedges in Sanford Stadium - this time against the No. 10 Texas Longhorns. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Clemson (+3.5) at No. 19 Louisville | ESPN | 7:30 PM, Friday
Matt’s Pick: Not buying it. I know Louisville lost a tough one to Cal last week, but the Cal offense is better than Clemson’s. I think the Tigers fight hard and keep it close, but I’ll take Louisville with a bounce-back win. They’ve been the more consistent team this season. They’ve got Clemson at home at night. I love running back Keyjuan Brown. He and Miller Moss will out-score the Tigers at home. Big home win for Louisville. Louisville (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: There have been some upsets on Friday nights this season. Clemson is playing a little better than it was at the beginning of the year. Give me Louisville (-3.5) anyway. I like the offensive playmakers for the Cardinals.
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take Clemson (+3.5) here. I'm not sure who wins this game. At a minimum, Clemson has a puncher's chance to win this game. But not much more than that. A six-loss season would be a pretty horrible look for Dabo Swinney at this point in his career. He's experienced five- and seven-loss seasons. I have to say, Clemson is looking far more like 2008-2010 Clemson under Dabo lately than anything else we've seen in the glory years. Closing this season out strong matters a ton in Tatertown.
Iowa (+6.5) at No. 17 USC | CBS | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I like this Iowa defense, but holding Oregon to 18 points at home in the rain is easier than defending this USC offense on the road. The Trojans are running the ball really well lately and the Hawkeyes haven’t played on the road in over a month. I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring four-quarter game, but the Trojans get it done with a late touchdown. USC (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is the most interesting game of the week. Iowa has not lost by more than five points this season. It held Indiana to 20 and Oregon to 18 points. Iowa has one of the best statistical defenses in college football. I am going against the grain, going to be a little bold and say that USC (-6.5) wins by a touchdown.
Dean’s Pick: Does it matter that USC is clearly the better team? Does it matter that Iowa can't score? Don't get too confused, neither of these two are much to write home about, but this is an afternoon game in Los Angeles, and those have not been unreal for the Midwestern teams from the Big Ten (Penn State, I'm talking very specifically about you). Anyway, I'm going to take USC (-6.5) here, but I am well aware that this game might be tough to predict - even the actual winner of the game. But the Trojans are better, and will have to screw this up, which they can be good at.
Florida (+13.5) at No. 6 Ole Miss | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Running with the Rebels here. If this was a 14.5-point spread I might lean Florida’s way, but the Rebels are good enough offensively to run away with this one. DJ Lagway is lost. The Ole Miss fans will get loud and stay for a solid three quarters. This is a “can’t lose” game for the Rebels who seem to have a playoff spot locked in with wins over the Gators and State. Rebels get the job done in impressive fashion. Ole Miss (-13.5).
Ryan’s Pick: It is bad at Florida. This won’t be like last year when Ole Miss lost its playoff chance in Gainesville. These teams are even further apart, and Ole Miss (-13.5) has been taking care of big lines at home.
Dean’s Pick: Dude, Florida has quit. Rebels (-13.5) super big.
Mississippi State (+11.5) at Missouri | SECN | 7:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: I don’t like this game for State. They got punched in the fave about 100 times but the Dawgs last week. They continue to loss. Missouri’s coming off a big loss to the Aggies. I expect the Tigers to bounce back strong with a home night game. State’s waving the white flag at this point. The Tigers can run the ball and State can’t stop it. Give me Missouri (-11.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This was tough, especially knowing the line has been shrinking. I don’t care. I have Missouri (-11.5). I think that the Tigers are more than capable of a double-digit home win over a Mississippi State team with a vulnerable defense. Mississippi State has now allowed three huge days on the ground. Look for Missouri to make that four on the back of Ahmad Hardy.
Dean’s Pick: This line has settled at seven - wow. That's a heck of a movement from where we got it on Sunday night. It could be that Alabama broke Mizzou. Or it could be that Missouri no longer has the starting quarterback they really needed to get the job done in all of these SEC games. State has the capacity to score. But they aren't a good team. Missouri has lost three of its last four... Give me State (+11.5) and double digits in the SEC. Free money.
TCU (+5.5) at No. 12 BYU | ESPN | 10:15 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’ll take the Cougars here. They play really well at home and they’re looking for a big bounce-back win. They have stable quarterback play and should move the ball easier on the Frogs defense compared to that might Red Raider defense that stopped them last week. The Cougars will have their fans excited for their first home game in almost a month. BYU wins this one by a touchdown. BYU (-5.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I believe in TCU. I do, but I think this will be tough, and I think that BYU will manage to bounce back in a night game in Provo. I think the Cougars will be able to run the ball on the Horned Frogs. I don’t think it will be a blowout, but I have BYU (-5.5).
Dean’s Pick: We will hustle home to Dawg Post world headquarters to put this game on after the Texas-UGA game... I used to be able to trust that You Tube TV would record this game, and we would be able to watch it, but we all have disappointments in live. I'm going to take TCU (+5.5) not quite getting a touchdown in this one. This line has dropped even lower than where we got it - it is at 3.5 right now - so I am super comfortable with this decision.
No. 9 Notre Dame (-10.5) at No. 23 Pitt | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m not sure Pitt’s going to ready for this one. Head coach Pat Narduzzi made it clear that this game isn’t as important as conference games. The Panthers have a solid team, but the Irish are rolling and are playing terrific defense. They can run the football, they’re getting strong quarterback play, and they’ve won every game this season by double-digits. Even on the road, I expect Notre Dame’s defense and running game to travel with them out the Pittsburgh. Irish get the job done on the road. Notre Dame (-10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I really wasn’t 100% sure about this one until Matt told us what Pat Narduzzi was saying to the media about how a loss to Notre Dame would be insignificant compared to the ACC games. EVERY GAME IS SIGNIFICANT FOR PITT. Do you want to get into the playoffs or not?
I’ll go with Notre Dame (-10.5). Better players. Better coach.
Dean’s Pick: So this is the type of game that you can talk yourself into picking against the better team. I'm here to warn you about that this time. Pitt is the type off team that can pick off other ACC teams. Notre Dame - hate them or whatever - is not another ACC team. They are playing well, and they are clearly better than a Pitt team that's on a roll having won its last five games. That said, those teams are not close to what Notre Dame is. Give me the Irish (-10.5) to cover a decent-sized line on the road.
No. 12 Oklahoma (+7.5) at No. 4 Alabama | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I want to pick Oklahoma here, but I just can’t do it. They have good players on defense but I don’t like what I’ve seen collectively out of that group over the last two weeks. John Mateer is not good enough to lead Oklahoma to a win in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have had trouble running the ball, but they still have Ty Simpson. He’ll lead Alabama to victory and it very well could be by double-digits. I don’t trust Oklahoma’s offense enough to stick around in this one. The Tide roll with a big home win. Alabama (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Another tough line to choose. I am saying that a lot this week. Alabama is not playing its best football right now. I think we can all recognize that. Oklahoma has some guys on defense and John Mateer is playing better than he was when he first came back from that hand injury.
I am going with Alabama (-7.5). I am looking for a backdoor cover out of the Tide. I think this will be a tough game.
Dean’s Pick: I'm taking Oklahoma (+7.5) here because Alabama isn't playing like it did earlier this season. And by earlier this season I don't mean like when they got worked by Florida State. I'm talking about the run from beating Wisconsin to Tennessee. In that time, Bama played some of the best football that's been played this season. They've regressed since - and it is noticeable to me. Oklahoma isn't great, so them winning this game... I have my doubts. But the Sooners can try to rely on their defense to hang in there for four quarters. I don't think that's asking too much.
No. 10 Texas (+6.5) at No. 5 Georgia | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me the Dawgs. I still don’t think this Texas team is great. They aren’t running the football, the offensive line has really struggled this year, and they’re barely beating bad teams. They’re not a great team on the road and I think the Bulldogs are finally hitting their stride. If Texas can’t run the football, they’re not beating Georgia. IF the Dawgs can continue to play sound, efficient football, they shouldn’t have a problem putting up points.
The Texas defense is strong, but they haven’t played an offense like Georgia’s. And yes, that includes Ohio State. I’m liking Georgia’s chances in this one more and more. If they play like they did in Starkville, they’ll win this game by double-digits. It’s a big night game in Athens and I don’t think this Texas team will be ready to play for four quarters. I’m expecting a close game for a while, but Georgia’s offense gets it done late and gets the cover. Georgia (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: It is difficult to figure out which version of Texas is going to show up. If you really study the Longhorns and have watched them play, you would know that almost every single result has been drastically different, and most games have been wildly disappointing relative to the preseason expectations.
Much of the hype train was generated in anticipation that Arch Manning was going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has not been that. I think it will take his best game or a lot to go wrong with Georgia for Texas to go into Athens and upset the Dawgs. That said, I have Georgia (-6.5).
I think the Dawgs will figure out a way to win this game, even if it is more difficult to run than they would like. Texas hasn’t faced a rushing attack like Georgia’s, and it hasn’t faced a team as complete as Georgia since week one.
Look at Matt and Dean figuring out that they need to have the same picks as me.
Dean’s Pick: I don't think taking Texas and getting 6.5 points is stupid here. BetQL tells us that sharp betters are firmly 50-50 on this game. The line moved from a Sunday open at 5.5 to 6.5 pretty quick. Georgia's offense has been surgical lately (about the last five games or so). Texas is coming off its best game (vs. Vandy). But in totality - no one can look at these two teams at pick Texas straight up. They are not at all the same. Texas could win, but I would need a quality explanation as to "why" they are going to win. There are far too many burnt orange flags on this one. The Dawgs have covered in four of their last five games (thanks for the knee Gunner). Texas has covered twice this season... Lordy. I'm not in love with it, but give me UGA (-6.5) to cover.
Season ATS
Matt - 33-58
Ryan - 51-40
Dean - 41-50
