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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 4 UGA football are getting set to take on Charlotte. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Missouri (+7.5) at No. 8 Oklahoma | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This one could be really fun to watch. The Tigers have an outstanding rushing attack, and they’ll need it in a big way if they want to pull off the upset. Alabama couldn’t run it, and we saw what happened there. The Sooners are sound defensively with lots of talent up front, but this one could get real tricky if they can’t get stops. I think Missouri’s rushing attack will keep them in this one until the end. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sooners escaped late. I’ll take the points here. Missouri (+7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: The top rushing attack in the conference meets the SEC’s top run defense. Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy hit the 300-yard mark by himself against Mississippi State last week. Oklahoma has shut down many run games throughout the season. These are the types of matchups that you look forward to.
Because I do not trust Oklahoma’s offense to be explosive against a pretty good Missouri defense that has kept it in almost every game, I am taking Mizzou (+7.5). I think Oklahoma guts out a close win at home. That half-point has me leaning in Missouri’s direction for this.
Dean’s Pick: I’m going to take Missouri (+7.5) here. This has been such a disappointing run for the Tigers from the Alabama game on. It's like their season has fallen out from underneath them. First the overtime game win over Auburn. Then a tight loss to Vandy, and you lose your QB. Then a 21-point loss to A&M at home... this OU game is a shot to get things halfway right. I don't expect a Missouri win. I expect a Sooner hangover. May the Big Eight live on forever!
Kentucky (+9.5) at No. 14 Vanderbilt | ESPN | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: As crazy as it sounds, the Cats haven’t been completely terrible since getting blown out by the Dawgs. They blew a chance to beat Texas at home, scored 34 points on Tennessee, beat Auburn on the road, crushed the Gators and are fresh off a comfortable cupcake victory. They’re playing with confidence, and their defense is fighting. Vanderbilt seems like the easy pick here, but I’m going in the opposite direction. The Cats badly want to get that sixth win. I think they’ll play hard and maybe get a back-door cover at the end. I’ll take Kentucky (+9.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Kentucky has played better the last few weeks. Vanderbilt is not playing as well as it did in September and parts of October. I am going to roll with Vanderbilt (-9.5) even though I do not feel great about it. I was really concerned with the late-game management by Vanderbilt’s staff against Auburn, and I was certainly concerned about their inability to guard Cam Coleman. Kentucky doesn’t have anyone like that.
If you want to get invited to New York, Diego Pavia, the time is now.
Dean’s Pick: This is one of three games over the next two weeks that directly affects the SEC championship race. Georgia wants Kentucky to win this game straight up, and I don't think that's asking too much considering everything. I'm going to take the Cats (+9.5) here because that's far too many points. I expect a Vandy win.
Arkansas (+8.5) at No. 17 Texas | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m not a fan of the vibes in Austin right now. As bad as Arkansas is defensively, Texas just can’t run the football. The Hogs consistently play tight games, and I think they’ll do it again this weekend. I don’t see a one-demensional Texas offense winning this game by nine. The Horns win a tight one, but I’ll take the points here. The Hogs are 2-8, but they still fight. If they can get a run game going and the Horns continue to shoot themselves in the foot with drops and penalties, this one will be tight until the very end. Razorbacks (+8.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Texas doesn’t have many results where it covers a line like this. Arkansas has played in so many close conference games - it has just lost them all. The Razorbacks are winless in the SEC. Texas’ season-long struggles were magnified in Sanford Stadium the other night.
This is a really tough line to pick because I do believe in bounce backs, and I obviously believe in home-field advantage. I have a feeling Texas (-8.5) is going to grab this win by about 10 points. The numbers throughout the season would tell you otherwise. Arkansas’ biggest loss in the conference was by nine points.
It is desperation time for the Longhorns. If you want any chance at slipping into the top-12, you are going to need style points in addition to a win over the Aggies.
Dean’s Pick: I'm rolling with the underdogs a lot this week, and Arkansas (+8.5) is getting a lot of points against a Texas team that can't score. Arkansas can score, and I would be concerned about an upset if I were the Horns.
No. 15 USC (+10.5) at No. 7 Oregon | CBS | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Man, this just seems like too many points. I like Oregon to win the game, but I don’t think it will be that easy. The Ducks are 9-1 but there are too many times where they simply don’t look like a top-10 team. I like USC’s offense enough to keep them in this one. The Ducks are sound defensively, so that matchup might determine the cover. Give me a close Oregon win with a Trojan cover. USC (+10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is the game that I am looking forward to the most this weekend. There are plenty of future NFL players in this matchup, and I need to see Oregon against another good team.
I like the Ducks here, but this line is just a little too big, so I am taking USC (+10.5). Oregon may very well win by 10, and I could also see a backdoor cover from the Ducks. I just think the Trojans will compete long enough to avoid a blowout loss.
Dean’s Pick: Great game. How in the world is this ending up on CBS? It is so hard to follow what the Big Ten is doing each week... the SEC? All of the games that matter are on ABC. Problem solved. I'm not a giant fan of defending double-digit conference games. These two teams are fighting for their playoff lives, and I does seem like Tommy Trojan and company are getting things together. That's too many points. Give me USC (+10.5).
No. 11 BYU (-2.5) at Cincinnati | FOX | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I don’t know what happened to Cincinatti, but they’ve looked bad the last two weeks. The Cougars are coming off a strong win over TCU. Bear Bachmeier could have a really big day if they can handle the crowd noise. BYU wants another shot at Texas Tech. I think they need a big win here and find a way to get the job done. I’m expecting a close one, but I don’t trust Cincinatti right now, even at home. I’ll take BYU (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is not my lock of the week necessarily, but I do think that this line is a little small. BYU has not been as good on the road but not to the point to where I don’t think the Cougars can pull this off. There is nothing like a night environment in college football, I expect Cincinnati to play better than the past couple of weeks.
I just have to go with the better team and more dynamic offense. BYU (-2.5) has both of those.
Dean’s Pick: It is hard to get into the Big 12. We recorded BYU-TCU last week, but these teams... there is no match. There is no rivalry. It feels wrong. i will watch it beccause I have no self control, but there's not much compelling about this league. It is too spread out. And this game is a great example of that. This is a tight game, and the stakes are clear for the Cougs. But UC has fallen on its face lately. BYU (-2.5) is better. Give me the Cougs.
No. 20 Tennessee (-3.5) at Florida | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Remember when this game meant something? Once again, we’ve got a Florida-Tennessee game with nothing on the line. It’s sad and hilarious at the same time. I have zero trust in Tennessee’s defense and think this one could get real tricky in the Swamp. One of these home teams is going to cover, and I think it might be Florida. Tennessee hasn’t won in the Swamp since 2003. They may sneak out with a victory on Saturday night, but I think it will come down to the end. Give me the Gators at home to cover. Florida (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Florida went to Oxford and played Ole Miss really tough. That is now ⅔ games without Billy Napier where Florida had a real chance - both against better teams than Tennessee and neither in Gainesville. Now the Vols have to go on the road, something that it's struggled with this season, to play a Florida team that has nothing to lose.
What a predicament to pick. I’m gonna go with Tennessee (-3.5) in a close one, but man I do not feel good about it.
Dean’s Pick: Now this is more like it. Florida may be coachless trash, but at least we understand this game - this rivalry. These are two SEC brands that have seen better days. Florida will see a new coach soon, but who will it be? Tennessee is a very narrow favorite in a game that's just about pride at this point. Where did it all go wrong for the Vols? I was told this would be a playoff team. That said, considering everything, this hasn't been a "bad" year for the Vols. They replaced their high-paid starting QB at the start of the season and didn't seem to miss a beat on that side of the ball. They just lost to UGA and Alabama, and then the difficult loss to the Sooners. If the Vols take out the Gators this week, and Vandy (UT -3.5) next week things are OK. Not unreal, but just fine. After all, you could be what you just were... or worse you could be the Gators. If Florida wins this game at the Swamp UGA's chances of going to Atlanta go way up. Give me the Vols (-4.5) to cover.
Pitt (+2.5) at No. 16 Georgia Tech | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This might be an ACC game I’m actually looking forward to. I don’t know who will win, but I know there could be 100 points scored in this game. These defense can’t stop anyone but Syracuse. In the end, I’ll take Haynes King and the Jackets at home. This is the ultimate trap game, and the Panthers have their season on the line, but Haynes King is different. I think the Jackets find a way to get just enough stops on defense to get the job done. Big game for King and the Jackets in Atlanta. Georgia Tech (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Georgia Tech is not playing as well as it was earlier in the season. The last two results were a loss and a last-second win. Will the Yellow Jackets be looking ahead to the Georgia game? They can’t afford to do that and win a battle in the ACC standings.
Notre Dame just had a solid day on the ground against Pitt. I suspect similar results for Georgia Tech. Haynes King really wills the Yellow Jackets to points on some of these drives. Expect to see at least a little bit of that on Saturday night. Georgia Tech (-2.5).
Dean’s Pick: I have to say that I am tempted to take Pitt to with this game straight up, but then I watched them make fools of themselves last week. I don't see it. We've spilt a lot of zeros and ones talking about how great Tech is, or how unreal Haynes King can be (it should be noted the Jackets have the No. 1 offense in the country / this is what Georgia Tech, sitting in the middle of Atlanta, should be - powerful on offense). And those things are true.
But Tech has to play defense, too. And Tech is bad at defense. Bad. I am betting Tech gets I done one last time before what I expect to be a 10-1 vs. 10-1 showdown in Atlanta. Give me Tech (-2.5) in this primetime showdown.
Charlotte (+44.5) at No. 4 Georgia | SECN | 12:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m in last place by a mile. I haven’t looked at my overall record in weeks. Picking Charlotte just feels wrong. It’s probably smart, but it still feels wrong. I’ve got nothing to lose. Give me the Dawgs big here on senior day. The offense should be able to score on every drive, and I have a hard time seeing Charlotte getting to the 10-point mark. A late backdoor cover is certainly possible, but I expect Georgia’s backups to thrive and put up some late points to get the job done. Why not? Give me Georgia (-44.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Georgia doesn’t cover these big lines. It just doesn’t. I do think that each game is independent of the others, but this is difficult to make a decision on.
Charlotte has had such a tough year. It has been held to 11 points or fewer four different times and only has one win.
I am going with Georgia (-44.5). The Dawgs are going to run the ball a lot, but I think they are going to do it well. I also suspect we see a little bit of Ryan Puglisi slinging it around in the third quarter.
Dean’s Pick: Man, listen, what are we talking about here? This line is far too large for Georgia. Look, Charlotte is horrible. I mean they are Charlotte Bobcats bad. Twice in its school history has Georgia covered a 40-plus point line. Both games were in 2014 (Charleston Southern and Troy). Does Mark Richt appear to be patrolling the sideline in Athens suddenly? What we need here is a game that's under 200 minutes from kickoff to the final horn. I'm unclear, but I don't think a running clock is permitted. Still, we need a running clock... figuratively, so run the ball Kirby. Run. The. Ball. Give me the Bobcats (+44.5).
Season ATS
Matt - 37-62
Ryan - 55-44
Dean - 45-54
