Dawgs And Cats| What Will Happen with UGA Football vs. Kentucky? Dawg Post Picks
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and UGA football tangle with the Kentucky Wildcats this Saturday afternoon Between the Hedges. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 9 Texas (-6.5) At Florida - ESPN - 3:30
Matt’s Pick: I can’t say I’m a giant fan of either one of these teams. I think Texas wins, but I’m not sure how much. In the end I just don’t trust this Florida offense. Especially against a strong Longhorns defense. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the Horns by seven. The Gators are 0-3 against the spread in their last four games. The Texas defense won’t be giving up much. I think Texas scrapes by with an ugly win and barely get the cover. Texas (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Florida can’t score. The Gators struggle to move the ball. I don’t trust that team. Let’s see if Texas has found its footing. Just bounced back against Sam Houston, and yes I think you can gain momentum with a big win against a bad team. We will see how much, but I expect Texas to play at least a little bit better coming out of the bye week. I am going with the Longhorns (-6.5).
Dean’s Pick: I like the points and the Gators here - BetQL is letting you know that the sharps are hitting the Gators here, too ( 66% of the money; 58% of the tickets on the Gators). This is a feel pick for me. I don't think the Gators are close to giving up, and when you are at home getting nearly a touchdown against an offense that's struggled a lot of the season you take it. I think Florida's defense can slow the Horns down enough to stay competitive. I have no hope that Florida will score against this Texas defense, so I am looking at a very low-scoring game. Give me Florida (+6.5).
No. 16 Vanderbilt (+10.5) at No. 10 Alabama - ABC - 3:30
Matt’s Pick: Give me the Commodores. They have veteran quarterback play, they’re well-coached, and they play hard. The ‘Dores defense scares me a little bit, and since I’m picking them to cover I’m sure they’ll get crushed. However, I think they’re offense will keep them in the game the entire way. They’ll play efficient, manage the clock, and keep this a game into the 4th quarter. The Tide will get the victory, but I’ll take Vanderbilt to keep it closer than the experts think. Vanderbilt (+10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am very much looking forward to this game. I am glad that we will be able to catch at least the fourth quarter, if not the whole second half. Vanderbilt has had as strong a start as you could have thunk for the Commodores. I think Vanderbilt has enough juice on offense to make this a tight game, but I have a hard time seeing that team going into Tuscaloosa and beating the Tide for a second-straight season.
This program is going to want revenge for last season. I think Ty Simpson is playing as clean as any quarterback in the country. Jam Miller getting another week to reintegrate into the offense could give it more balance. I like Alabama (-10.5) to cover this line late.
Dean’s Pick: I don't think it is out of the question that Vandy wins this game outright. Alabama played its best game of the season last week, but Vandy has been pretty steady all year. According to BetQL, sharp betters are ALL OVER Vandy and the points here. 96% of sharp money is on Vandy. Vanderbilt has only scored fewer than 32 points once this season - during a blowout road win over the Cocks. I would be very concerned about this game if I'm Alabama. Very. Give me Vanderbilt (+10.5).
No. 3 Miami (-4.5) at No. 18 Florida State - ABC - 7:30
Matt’s Pick: This Miami team is beattable. It’s only a matter of time before they fall, and this weekend could be the time. The ‘Noles are coming off a tough loss to Virginia, but I think they’ll bounce back. I expect this game to go down to the wire. I think Miami’s the better team, but I think the Noles keep it tight until the end. Night game at home against their biggest rival. I’m expecting them to play at a high level. Florida State (+4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am really jumping after this one. I like Florida State (+4.5) in a home game at night. The Seminoles lost a Friday night fight in Virginia which proved its vulnerability, but Miami is vulnerable too - some people just aren’t seeing it yet. I don’t think Carson Beck is all the way back and the Hurricanes have yet to be tested on the road. Miami’s wins are not as impressive to me as they might be on paper, and I don’t think it looks that amazing on paper.
Dean’s Pick: I don't love either of these teams to be frank. I think I might like the Noles slightly more because they are at home. If you love Miami it might be that you have watched the Notre Dame game and the start of the Florida game. Carson Beck is more like he was in 2024 than he was in 2023. And at some point if the Canes are going to get deep into the CFP Carson is going to have to play better. Miami let the Gators nearly steal that game late two weeks ago. Miami isn't pinned up - they aren't great on all the details. Someone is going to catch them because they aren't unreal (possibly Louisville, but they don't play a lot from here on out). Give me the points and the home Noles (+4.5).
Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M (-14.5) - SEC Network - 7:30
Matt’s Pick: This one feels too easy. That’s why I’ll 100% get this pick wrong. I’m going with Mississippi State and the points. That’s not a bad team. They’ve got players. They have a staff that looks like they know what they’re doing. The Aggies are probably better, but that’s just too many points for me. Like Miami, Texas A&M is going to fall at some point. It may not be this weekend, but I think this one will be closer than most think. Mississippi State (+14.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Texas A&M is playing teams tighter than it should be. I thought the Aggies would handle Auburn easier than it did. It didn’t look that great in the non-power four games. I am still high on A&M, but it might not be as good as I thought. With that, I think Mississippi State (+14.5) will play enough to stay within a couple of touchdowns. Texas A&M wins by a 10-14- point margin.
Dean’s Pick: I've got State here because that's a lot of points - even on the road in the SEC. 70% of sharp better tickets are on State for this one according to BetQL - I get it. I have State (+14.5).
No. 11 Texas Tech (-10.5) at Houston - 7:00 - ESPN
Matt’s Pick: I’m rolling with the Red Raiders here. Mainly because of that Utah game. They looked solid. Houston’s a respectable opponent and they’ll take on Tech at home. At night. I expect the Cougars to put up a fight, but a late score by Texas Tech gets them the cover. They know how to play on the road and I think they’ll take care of business. Texas Tech (-10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Texas Tech is a good team. The Red Raiders proved me wrong against Utah. This is the best team in the Big 12 from what I have watched, and I have had my eye on a fair amount of the conference so far. I think Houston is a solid squad and will not allow a blowout, but give me the Red Raiders (-10.5).
Deans’ Pick Covering two scored on the road is a lot. Texas Tech might be able to do that because they don't allow anyone to score. The Red Raiders haven't allowed more than two touchdowns in any game this season. That's pretty good. Give me Texas Tech (-10.5) to cover.
Minnesota at Ohio State (-24.5) - 7:30 - NBC
Matt’s Pick: I’m taking the Buckeyes, so if you’re able to gamble, put your next paycheck on Minnessota. I’m done fading the Buckeyes. They always make me look like a fool. I expect them to play really well in a home environment at night. Their defense might be the best in the country. I could see this one being close at the half, but the Buckeyes are just too good. I’m taking Ohio State to cover, so in reality, they’re going to win by 24. A smart person would take the Gophers, but I’m taking the Buckeyes. Ohio State (-24.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I think this Ohio State team will get better as the season goes on. Julian Sayin certainly has talent, and there is no question that the talent around him is more than capable of propelling a team to a deep College Football Playoff run. The Buckeyes have shown me enough that it is ready for a big win. I like Ohio State (-24.5).
Dean’s Pick: I’ve got Ohio State (-24.5) here, but I don’t love it. This isn’t the same Ohio State team as a year ago. I will leave it there.
Duke (-2.5) at Cal - 10:30 - ESPN
Matt’s Pick: I like taking the home team on these cross-country games. It’s bit me in the butt on more than one occassion, but I’m going to stubbornly stick with my incorrect ways. Give me Cal to keep this one close and possibly win. These teams feel even, but I’m going with the home team here. If you want to win some money I would suggest taking Duke. But my brain is telling me Cal gets a big home win. Cal (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Let me be the first to tell you about Cal’s freshman quarterback, the lefty from Hawaii, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He is one of my sleeper players to watch this year. I am rolling with him and Cal (+2.5) and the points while hosting Duke on a cross-country trip.
Dean’s Pick: I'll be honest, I'm kind of into the Calgorithm these days. The Bears are only have a loss (of course it is San Diego State); they are hosting a solid Duke team; and the game is very, very late. ACC After Dark! I'm going to take the Bears (+2.5) here - straight up as well.
Kentucky (+20.5) at Georgia - 12:00 - ABC
Matt’s Pick: Kentucky is not a good team, but this just seems like way too many points. The Dawgs consistently start off slow and I expect them to do the same for a noon game. The crowd won;t get up for Kentucky. I can see the Dawgs getting off to another slow start before turning it on in the second half. Dawgs win comfortably, but I’ll take the points here. Kentucky (+20.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am changing my pick. In the video version, I took Kentucky to cover, but Dean convinced me otherwise, and I looked into it a little more. I’m tapping into what my feelings are telling me instead of my brain. My brain says take the points, Georgia doesn’t typically cover big lines.
My feeling is that Georgia is going to play really well. Couple that with my brain knowing that Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the conference. I think Georgia will run all over the Wildcats. Ole Miss went for over 200 yards on the ground in Lexington. South Carolina got close to that number on the Wildcats. I have a hard time seeing a very inexperienced quarterback in Cutter Boley lead a successful offense in Athens.
Georgia (-20.5) will bounce back this week with a solid win, and Kentucky will struggle to score. I’ll give a score prediction. Georgia wins 38-10.
Dean’s Pick: So here's the reason I am going to take the Dawgs (-20.5) to cover this line. Three scores - I mean that's a lot in for any league game. That said - according to BetQL 56% of sharp betters are taking the Dawgs to cover this line. BetQL has the Dawgs as a 21.5-point favorite to win the game... so perhaps this line is "slightly" low.
I don't think Kentucky is going to score hardly at all. Zach Calzada is likely to return for the Cats, but I'm not sure he makes a ton of difference. I expect Georgia to grind Kentucky down, and for the Cats not to be able to make enough first downs to stay in this game. Alabama converted 13 first downs a week ago. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cats converted five or fewer.
UK's offense is bad. UK's defense is worse. Kentucky has only 74 first downs this season - good for 114th in the nation. That's because they are struggling to throw the ball. The Cats are giving up 147 on the ground... this could get ugly. Take the Dawgs and avert your eyes.
Season ATS
Matt 15-28
Ryan 22-21
Dean 19-24
