UGA Football is Off| What Will Happen with This Weekend in College Ball? Dawg Post Picks
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football are off this week after a long and winding first seven games of the season. The Dawgs will kick back and watch as the rest of college football goes hard this weekend. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 8 Ole Miss (+4.5) at No. 13 Oklahoma | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m going to go completely against the strategy that has already secured me last place in this thing. Ole Miss is a good team that gave Georgia hell for four quarters. Oklahoma’s offense looks really off. This seems like way too many points to me. I think this game will come down to the wire, and the Rebels can actually win this thing if they can get some stops defensively. Saying all that, I’ll pick the Sooners at home to cover. Oklahoma (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This one is tough. How will Ole Miss respond to the Georgia loss? We haven’t seen how the Rebels handle losses yet. Oklahoma has one of the top defenses statistically and has the home field. I would usually roll with that. I have Ole Miss (+4.5) instead. I want the points.
Dean’s Pick: This line has taken off against the Rebels, our buddies at BetQL let us know. We got this line earlier in the week, but it is now at OU -5.5. That's a pretty significant move considering the ability of Ole Miss. But the Rebels are playing on the road, and there is chitter chatter about Lane leaving his post as the top confederate. George Pickett did not die for this! Give me Oklahoma (-4.5).
No. 4 Alabama (-13.5) at South Carolina | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This South Carolina team is so bad. This feels like an Alabama lock, so that means Carolina gives them a real fight. Still, the vibes in Columbia are too bad. Ty Simpson is playing like the best QB in the country. The Tide will get to around the 30-point mark and the Carolina offense can’t move the ball. This one feels easy, so everyone else shouls fade and pick Carolina. Go make some money. But I’m really bad at this so I’ll take Alabama (-13.5).
Ryan’s Pick: South Carolina lost by 19 at home to Oklahoma. Vanderbilt went into Williams-Brice and won by 24. The Cocks lost by nine at home to Missouri. They lost by 10 to LSU. Alabama is better than all of those teams. I’ll take the Tide (-13.5) to cover.
Dean’s Pick: You have to wonder if the Tide will use being the homecoming opponent as motivation this week (they will). This is a Carolina program that is spinning right now. BetQL tells us USC should be only a nine-point dog in this one, and yet this line is as high as 12.5 in some places. Sharp money is pretty split on this one. I'm going to pound the Cocks in this case - but the long-term forecast for this season in Cootlumbia is pretty rough. A losing season is more likely than not - and upsetting a listless Clemson won't save Shane Beamer from his critics... no matter how much he cries with sunglasses on. So long as Ty Simpson remains confident and plays well Alabama won't lose this season. The key to beating Alabama is bothering Simpson... if you can. Carolina can't, but give me USC (+13.5) getting nearly two touchdowns at home as Bama comes down slightly after an emption win over the Vols.
No. 15 Missouri (+3.5) at No. 10 Vanderbilt | ESPN | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: That half a point scares me as I consistently get that wrong, but damn it, I’m doing it again. Give me Vanderbilt at home. That’s a good football team with a coaching staff that has a real vision. The Tigers are due for another SEC loss and I think it comes this weekend. Of course, Vanderbilt will likely win this game by three points, so Missouri is probably the smart play. But, I don’t care. Give me the ‘Dores with another big victory. Vanderbilt (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Call it a culture pick. Call it a moxie pick. Call it the right pick. I have Vanderbilt (-3.5) here. I am probably higher on Missouri than most. I like that running back and the Tigers just play hard. I just have a feeling about Vanderbilt in this one.
Dean’s Pick: Two pretty solid teams here. This game getting kicked to ESPN is a slight shame, but when you have a lineup that includes Ole Miss-OU, No. 4 Alabama on the road and LSU-TAMU this gets kicked to the Worldwide Leader. No matter. I trust Vanderbilt more than I trust Missouri. Perhaps more interesting is 5-star Jared Curtis' official visit to Vandy this weekend. Give me Vanderbilt (-3.5) to cover.
No. 22 Texas (-6.5) at Mississippi State | SECN | 4:15 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Longhorns are complete frauds. I know playing in Lexington is tricky. I get it. It’s a win and get out game. But I don’t think Texas is getting any better. Lot’s of wasted talent out there. State’s obviously not a good football team, but I can’t live with myself if I picked Texas again. Total frauds. I’m sure this is dumb, but I’ll take Mississippi State to cover. The Horns will win a tight, ugly game at the end, but State covers the line. Mississippi State (+6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I’ll say it. Texas has its back up against the wall right now. Teams can struggle up in Lexington. Look no further than 2022 and 2024 Georgia. I feel as if I am going against the grain by taking Texas. I don’t trust the Longhorns, but this feels like a game they will win. I’m taking Texas (-6.5). Just rock with me here.
Dean’s Pick: I've watched Texas enough to know that the Horns need to consider a change at QB. Some insiders think that's not out of the realm of possibility. We will see. BetQL is saying Texas should be an eight-point favorite. That's probably based on that impressive defense. But State can be tricky to defend. The sharp money has shifted to State - at a massive clip here later in the week. I will ride that wave - Give me State (+6.5).
Syracuse (+17.5) at No. 7 Georgia Tech | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I thought about Syracuse for a second here because that’s a lot of points. Then I remembered that Syracuse stinks. They haven’t won a game since beating a really bad Clemson team on the road. They can’t stop anyone on defense and have been blown out several times already. I don’t think Georgia Tech should be No. 7, and I’m not going to forget their ugly game against Wake Forest, but I’ll take the Jackets to get a big homecoming win over a bad Syracuse team. Jackets get it done and cover the big line. Georgia Tech (-17.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Does it look right to you to see that No. 7 next to Georgia Tech? The Yellow Jackets have earned it so far by making it to this point unscathed. Unless they trip up against someone they shouldn’t. Georgia Tech is gonna weasel its way into the College Football Playoff. I’m rolling with Tech (-17.5).
Dean’s Pick: A lot of folks have picked up on Tech being undefeated. That's been the case since the first Friday night of the season when the Jackets escaped the clutches of Colorado. Now more than ever folks are inspecting Tech's resume, and it's not so hot. Georgia Tech is a massive favorite in this one. I get it. I don't see Syracuse winning this game. It is concerning for the ACC that both of these teams' best wins of the season are a 3-4 Tater team. BetQL says Tech should be favored by 19. That's probably right. Give me Tech (-17.5).
Auburn (-1.5) at Arkansas | SECN | 12:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: Hugh Freeze has one foot out the door, and he’ll be coaching for his job this weekend. IF they lose, which could happen, there’s no point in Freeze getting on the plane home. This Auburn offense is total trash, but Arkansas can’t stop anyone. They may have the worst defense in the country. The Hogs have a quarterback, but the Tigers defense should keep him in check for the most part. With Freeze’s job on the line, I think the Tigers escape with a tight win. Auburn is complete garbage, but Arkansas is total trash. Auburn (-1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: My prediction: Arkansas gets this win and Hugh Freeze returns to Auburn without his job. I heard they were seriously considering getting rid of him after losing to Georgia, but gave him some grace because of officiating in the games against Oklahoma and the Dawgs. Who knows. I like Arkansas (+1.5). Give me those points.
Dean’s Pick: The cut man has a responsibility - to save his fighter when the time comes to do so. We don't need to see serious harm or death come to a man during athletic competition. Its time. Someone needs to do it. Someone needs to throw the towel in on these two teams/programs.
Lord, this game.
This is about as bad as it gets. The sharps are on Arkansas hard, BetQL tells us. Auburn thinks there is a conspiracy against them by the SEC office. Arkansas thinks there is a conspiracy that involves not playing defense. This is going to be a rough watch. Sorry Auburn Framily - give me the Hogs (+1.5).
No. 17 Tennessee (-9.5) at Kentucky | SECN | 7:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: My brain immidiately says Tennessee covers this line, so I know that likely won’t be the case. Kentucky has only scored more than 24 points once this year. They’ve been held to under 15 points in each of their last three games. I don’t think they can keep up with the Vols. This game will be tricky at night in Lexington, so if you’re smart you’ll pick the Cats to give Tennessee everything they have and keep it close. But I’m not very smart, so I’ll pick Tennessee to get the job done. Give me Tennessee (-9.5).
Ryan’s Pick: No overthinking on this one. Tennessee is getting 30 points up in Lexington. Tennessee is now in desperation territory. It can’t lose again and it needs to look good in these wins to secure a playoff spot at the end of the year. Tennessee (-9.5) covers.
Dean’s Pick: So this is probably an undervalued rivalry in the world of the SEC. And it comes at a tricky time for the Vols, who just lost probably the biggest game they play each season. Back-to-back rivalry games for Tennessee... a team that's lost the two huge games they've played in this season - and who have sandwiched those games with unimpressive games against State and Arkansas. Meanwhile, the Cats were smothered by Carolina and then covered by the Dawgs. In 100% Kentucky football fashion, UK took the week off, and pushed Texas to the limit before figuring out how to lose to the Horns in overtime. Going winless in the SEC is not out of the question for UK, but they do play listless Auburn. I think one of two things happens here. UK gets destroyed because they've given up; or UK fights the Vols, who are thinking about last week, to then end and lose to Tennessee at the end. I think it is the second one. Give me UK (+9.5).
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2.5) at No. 20 LSU | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Aggies probably aren’t the No. 3 team in the country. They have a loss coming their way at some point, but it won’t be on Saturday. LSU still can’t score and the Aggie running game shouldn’t be all that effected by the Tiger Stadium crowd. It’s against the law to pick someone else over LSU at night, but Texas A&M is the better football team. LSU, even in this environment, simply can’t be trusted. This will be a tight game, but the Aggies get it done. Texas A&M (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Ugh. This week was tough to pick and we are ending it with a difficult one. If I were still in my preseason thought process, I would not hesitate to take LSU with the points at home. In fact, it feels wrong to go against the Tigers in this scenario, but I am doing it. I am going with Texas A&M (-2.5). I don’t think the scores of the Aggies’ games have indicated how well the team has played. LSU shockingly struggles to put points on the board. I feel like I am making a mistake.
Dean’s Pick: It is possible LSU gets enough juice to go with this game. The Aggies have not played well in a while to be frank. Winning at night in Death Valley is hardly a walk in the park. BUT WILL THEY PLAY NECK?
Yes, Grandma Lucille, they'll play Neck, but you have to control yourself this time.
BetQL lets us know the money on this one is pretty split. A&M has a relatively difficult close to the season, and this is the start of that. "If" TAMU can get a win here it sure looks like playing in the CFP is possible or even probable. Winning at Texas is hardly asking a lot this season. Playing at Missouri might be the toughest task remaining.
I'm going to take LSU (+2.5) because I think it is back-against-the-wall time for Brian Kelly. When "buyout" is the first thing that pops up on your Google machine about someone...
So expect LSU to fight and maybe even win this game. This is a real challenge for A&M.
Season ATS
Matt 22-45
Ryan 35-32
Dean 29-38
