UGA Football Travels to Auburn | Who Will Win Georgia-Auburn? Dawg Post Picks
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 10 UGA football travel to Jordan-Hare Stadium for the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 1 Ohio State (-14.5) at No. 17 Illinois | FOX | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: It’s never smart to pick a road team to cover that many points. Especially against a top-20 opponent. But I love this Buckeye defense and think they’ll be the difference in a big win. They’ll be locked in for a noon game. They’ve got enough explosiveness to score quickly on offense and the defense could have another giant game. Ohio State is rolling and I think they get another impressive win. Ohio State (-14.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Illinois isn’t bad. It is a good team. Ohio State is just that much better. I like the Buckeyes (-14.5) to get this done late.
Dean’s Pick: This feels like the sort of game that might press Ohio State a little. They just got back from Seattle. They play a noon game on the road. And we are expecting them to cover a two-touchdown line with a hook? Not for me. If Ohio State gets it done they get it done. I'm going to take the home team in conference play that gets "that" many points. Give me Illinois (+14.5).
No. 8 Alabama (-3.5) at No. 14 Missouri | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: If this game was at night, maybe I’d lean Missouri’s way. The crowd shouldn’t be too much of a factor and Ty Simpsom is playing at a really high level. They’re good enough to go on the road and get a big win. This should be a four-quarter game, but I think Alabama takes it by a touchdown. The Tide roll on the road. Alabama (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I like Missouri (+3.5) and the points here at home, even if it is just at noon. I think that crowd will wake up and get after it for this one. It can be jumpy in Columbia. Nobody has performed as well on the ground (running and stropping it) as the Missouri Tigers in the SEC. Alabama did not fare well against a mobile quarterback in week one. I am predicting that it will struggle again.
Dean’s Pick: Man this line keeps ticking down. This thing started at Alabama -5.5. It is at Bama -3 right now. We got this at AL -3.5. It could be lower than that by the time you read this. I'm going to take Missouri (+3.5). As well as Alabama has played they will have to play their best game once more - for the third game in a row - to win again. By the way they play the Vols next week... this is a brutal schedule for Alabama.
Missouri has played "pretty well" this season. They were sloppy against Kansas for a time, and certainly against South Carolina two weeks ago. BetQL informs us that sharp betters have placed 82% of their cash on Missouri - you don't see that a ton with Alabama playing. That's why the number has moved so much.
No. 6 Oklahoma (+2.5) vs. Texas | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is a really odd line. Maybe Vegas knows something I don’t. What am I talking about? Of course they do. I’m awful at this. But I’ll take the biat. The Oklahoma defense might smother that Texas offense all day long. I expect the Sooners to win the line of scrimmage and get good enough play from the backup to get the job done. Oklahoma has looked better than Texas all year long and they should win the game. Give me Oklahoma (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I don’t know what to make of Texas. I really don’t. I don’t trust Oklahoma’s backup quarterback either. Sigh. Texas should be embarrassed. Just give me the points, which are going to Oklahoma (+3.5) in this case.
Dean’s Pick: So you have a missing starting quarterback in this game, and I'm not talking about what Arch Manning was supposed to be. Texas is favored in this game, which really is amazing to me - and the line keeps going up. We got this at Texas (-2.5). It is already up to TX -3 in some places. I'm not saying this is a must-win game for both teams, but it would help.
The Horns have looked lost for a while. This game would give them at least the ability to rest things before traveling to Lexington and then State in back-to-back weeks. Oklahoma stole a game against Auburn - literally - and now they are the No. 6 team in the nation and an underdog to a non-ranked team that just got trucked by the Gators.
Man.
Is Oklahoma "that" unimpressive? I'm going to take the Sooners (+2.5) even with the backup. I realize this, like most trips to any state fair, is provably a mistake.
No. 7 Indiana (+7.5) at No. 3 Oregon | CBS | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Oh boy. Dan Lanning has his Ducks playing really well. The Hoosiers are better than theyw ere last year, and they’ll fight hard, but I think Oregon gets the late cover. This definitely feels like a line I’ll be on the wrong side of though. That extra point worries me but I’ll take the Ducks anyway at home. They’re one of the best teams in the country and will look like it on Saturday. Oregon (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Indiana is a good team. The Hoosiers proved that by demolishing Illinois a couple of primetime slots ago. Fernando Mendoza has been the best quarterback in college football to some.
I am taking Oregon (-7.5). The Ducks are arguably the best team I have watched this season. Their quarterback, Dante Moore, is as good as anybody. Dan Lanning is completely settled in with this program. These are the games you need to look good in to get people believing. I think that happens.
Dean’s Pick: This is a great game for CBS to get. You have to wonder how great a strategy it is for the Big Ten to spread all of their games around. Three different broadcast networks and two cable channels no one watches? The money is good, but the exposure... I mean, I would want some continuity. You can leave it on ABC all day long. And people do.
Nonetheless.
Indiana is out here acting like they are for real. But BetQL says the Sharps are heavy on the Ducks. The Hoosier's 20-15 win at Iowa didn't give me tons of confidence going into this one. That was the first time since August Indiana didn't score at least 50. Now they are going to play an Oregon team that's not yet permitted 25 points in a game. Give me the Ducks (-7.5), but the hook might bring you back.
Arkansas (+12.5) at No. 12 Tennessee | SECN | 4:15 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Razorbacks are in shambles and the Vols were off last week. Now, they have a chance to regroup and take on the next part of their schedule. They do have Alabama looming, but I expect the Vols to come out and play hard. They need this win badly so their season isn’t completely on the line next week. This Arkansas defense can’t stop anyone and the Vols could put up 40+ points with ease. Big win for the Vols. Tennessee (-12.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Nobody wants to score points more than the Tennessee Volunteers. Arkansas has been disastrous so far. I’ll take Tennessee (-12.5) easily.
Dean’s Pick: Double digits is a lot in the SEC, so when you see that you have to be cautious. Tennessee really underperformed at State two weeks ago, but they won. They can score like crazy. They've not been held under 41 points this season. I mean, that's really scoring. It was a time for a change at Arkansas after the Hogs lost 56-13 to Notre Dame at home. Does the team rally now with new leadership? I'm not sure. I have Tennessee (-12.5) big here.
South Carolina (+9.5) at No. 11 LSU | SECN | 7:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: I can’t see Carolina winning this game, but that’s just too many points for me. The LSU offense isn’t what we thought it could be, and if the Carolina offense can put together a strong drive or two, along with a classic special teams play, Carolina could keep this one close into the 4th quarter. The Tigers pull away late, but Carolina is good enough to hang in there and get the cover. I can’t say I feel good about it, though. Cocks lose but make it interesting. South Carolina (+9.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going to be what I feel like is a little bold here. I am taking LSU (-9.5). I have faith that the Tigers can squeak out a 10-point win at home at that place at night. South Carolina’s offense does not look anything like it was being projected to be. LSU has been winning with very strong defense. That is not a strong combination for the Gamecocks heading into Death Valley. I think LSU’s offense will do enough to cover.
Dean’s Pick: So this line is a little jumpy. We got the Chickens getting nearly ten points. But the line has been knocked down to 8.5 in some circles. BetQL tells us that 90% of sharp money is on the Cocks. I don't love going on the road in the SEC with South Carolina. They are not trustworthy. Frankly, they are not good. They were slapped around by Vanderbilt, and then hung in there, but lost in Middle Earth to Missouri. I feel like LSU is jittery right now. They've played some tight ball games, and they just are not scoring. LSU hasn't scored more than 20 on a power-four team this season. South Carolina winning straight up isn't out of the question IF they can play well offensively. Give me them Cocks (+9.5).
No. 15 Michigan (+1.5) at USC | NBC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me the home team here. The Trojans are getting good quarterback play from Jayden Maiava and have enough offense to pull the upset. Long flight for Michigan. I think Justice Haynes could run through that Trojan defense, and he’ll absolutely go over the 100-yard mark, but I think the Trojans step up late and get the job done. Trojans (-1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This one is really a pick ‘em in my eyes. That is why I have to go with the home team here. Jayden Maiava has been one of the better quarterbacks in college football. Makai Lemon has arguably been the best receiver. USC lost a second half shootout last week. I don’t think it will this week. USC (-1.5).
Dean’s Pick: I will just say that it is curious to be that Michigan is an underdog in this game. What am I missing here? BetQL lets us know that the sharp money is heavily on USC. That gives me a lot of the data that I need for that one. According to BetQL, 97% of sharp money and 85% of the tickets are on USC. Give me the Trojans (-1.5) to cover the point and a half.
No. 10 Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m taking the Dawgs here and feel good about it. I like Georgia’s offense better. I think they’re be able to get the ground game going. I think Gunner Stockton’s legs will be a factor and I think Georgia pulls away in the second half. Georgia’s defese is stout against the run and Auburn’s offense line has really struggled. Jackson Arnold is a good athlete who will make some plays here and there, but he’s not a good quarterback. The Auburn offense is incredibly inconsistent and were terrible on 3rd down in their last game. They’ll give Georgia everything they have, but it won’t be enough. Georgia pulls away late and gets the cover. Georgia (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I like Georgia (-3.5) to win and cover this line. I think the Dawgs will win by 10-14 points. Can Auburn win through the air on offense? That is a factor that I think will have a big role in determining the outcome of the game. Georgia will likely win the ground game.
Dean’s Pick: Georgia travels to Auburn for a game it should win. The Dawgs are a narrow 3.5-point favorite to win this game. Auburn, statistically, isn't matchup up "great" in this game. But if the Tigers can play the run well they can make this game jumpier than the Dawgs might like.
BetQL tells us 66% of sharp better money is on the Dawgs to cover. I buy that as well. Give me Georgia (-3.5). Frankly, I could see Georgia routining Auburn in this one. Auburn has "really" struggled to score in SEC play. That should get better at home, but we will see. I do think UGA's offense, which is averaging 33 points per game in the SEC, is going to be tough to stop - even for an Auburn defense that permits only 88 rushing yards per game. Auburn's defense is legit it seems, but its offense is struggling.
I think that's going to be the problem. Georgia can score 28 - can Auburn?
Season ATS
Matt 17-34
Ryan 26-25
Dean 23-28
Week 7 Picks
