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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football are on the road for the final time in SEC play at Mississippi State. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Northwestern (+14.5) at No. 20 USC | FOX | 8:00 PM | Friday
Matt’s Pick: They did just lose to a bad Nebraska team, but I think Northwestern hangs in there on Friday night. They know what it’s like to win games, their defense isn’t completely terrible, and they know how to fight. They’re not a great team, and they’ll lose this one, but I expect them to come out fighting. Trojans win, but I’ll take Northwestern with the points. Even on the road, that just seems like a a lot. Northwestern (+14.5).
Ryan’s Pick: USC has beaten every B1G opponent it has played at home by this margin or more. I am putting my confidence in the Trojans (-14.5). USC still has an outside shot at the B1G championship game, but I don’t expect Ohio State and Indiana to falter before that.
Dean’s Pick: I'm pretty happy we've got this game on a Friday night. The Dawg Post crew will be, hopefully, getting to the Starkville metropolitan area about the time this game gets going. As a consumer I love these Friday night games on Friday night. As a late-night Saturday night watcher... I would rather see this game on Saturday night.
We don't get good games really late anymore, and I understand why that's the case. But this game would have been ideal for that sort of watching this Saturday. Instead we have to suffer through this one Friday night. I've got USC (-14.5) in this one even though it feels like slightly more than two scores might be slightly more than I would like to have to cover.
No. 2 Indiana (-13.5) at Penn State | FOX | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me the Hoosiers. They’re on a mission. Penn State gave everything they had last week against the Buckeyes and completely fell apart in the second half. They’re a sinking ship and have nothing left for Indiana. The Hoosiers are better in every phase of the game. This one might be tight for a half, but Indiana will cruise and do their best to put up style points. Even on the road, Indiana rolls late and gets the cover. Indiana (-13.5).
Ryan’s Pick: A two-touchdown road line? Let’s do it. I’ll go with Indiana (-13.5) who wants to score as many points. No team in the Power Four has as good of an average margin of victory as the Hoosiers do. I expect Curt Cignetti to take that new contract and rub it in Penn State’s face by running up the score.
Dean’s Pick: Indiana "looks" like it could be or is the best team in the country. They have an outstanding quarterback. I will say - this was the time of year things slowed down for IU last year. No worry about that in 2025. Indiana is going to go an entire season playing two ranked teams. It looks like Georgia is going to play two this month alone. The Hoosiers look like the real deal, but that Big Ten is pretty bad - and Penn State certainly is bad. I have no problem going with Indiana (-13.5) even on the road at Penn State.
No. 8 BYU (+10.5) at Texas Tech | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Just too many points. I like Texas Tech here, but this one could be a lot tighter than people think. This Cougars are a fine football team. They haven’t looked all that great at times, but they clearly know how to win. They’re well-coached and they’ll make this a tight game. The Red Raiders are solid too, and they need this win badly, but it won’t be easy. Texas Tech gets the win but BYU gets the cover. BYU (+10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: You have to be bold to win these picks. I am going to be bold by saying that Texas Tech (-10.5) will cover this line against undefeated BYU. I have been more impressed with the Red Raiders than I have the Cougars. Texas Tech’s loss has a huge asterisk next to it in my eyes. Starting QB Behren Morton missed that game and it was on the road.
Dean’s Pick: A showdown in the Big 12 that could be lots of fun. I won't see a snap of this game because of when it kicks off. If the Big 12 wants to get two teams in the playoff (probably not happening) they probably need these two teams to split the regular season and conference title game. I don't love BYU's crazy ass. But I think, even on the road, over ten points is a lot.
Give me the Cougs (+10.5) and hit my theme music.
No. 3 Texas A&M (-6.5) at No. 19 Missouri | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This one’s tricky. I’m expecting a fight here. Missouri’s season is on the line if it isn’t over already. The Aggies are rolling and could easily have a let-down game here on the road. They can afford a loss and the Tigers can’t. This might be the dumb move as the Aggies can absolutely win this game by a touchdown, but my gut says they escape with a tight road win. Missouri will give them their best and keep it close. Missouri (+6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Missouri is a tough team, and I think it will continue to be a tough team with Matt Zollers at quarterback after Beau Pribula went down. I really liked what I saw out of Zollers in the second half of the Vanderbilt loss. I do think that this will be too tough a game in his first career start. I am about as high on Texas A&M as anybody else is right now. Give me the Aggies (-6.5) to leave Missouri with the cover.
Dean’s Pick: I would watch it here if I'm A&M. I. Would. Watch. It.
I don't love the the Missouri starting QB is out for this one, but I do like Missouri (+6.5) getting nearly a touchdown at home. Texas A&M got Notre Dame in the best win of the season. They can be explosive on offense to be sure.
They also narrowly beat Auburn at home; and narrowly beat Arkansas on the road. Let's not get too jazzed up about them quite yet. Beating LSU ain't what it used to be.
LSU (+10.5) at No. 4 Alabama | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I think the Tide roll big at home. The entire LSU program is in disarray and now they have to play the Tide. On the road. At night. Alabama completely embarrassed LSU in Baton Rouge last year and I expect the same thing to happen in Tuscaloosa. I’m sure I’ll be wrong here like I have all season long, but I’m picking Alabama to win by at least 14. They’re clearly better than LSU and Ty Simpson could be the clear Heisman front-runner with a big game. I think both Simpson and the Tide get it done Saturday night. Alabama (-10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am picking Alabama (-10.5) with confidence here. I don’t think the Crimson Tide will struggle too much the rest of the way. Maybe against Oklahoma, but I don’t believe we will see that this weekend. We are definitely going to hit some traffic coming back from Starkville.
Dean’s Pick: If you aren't on the front row at Bryant-Denny acting like a T Rex are you really living your best life? I love LSU's stupidity. NO ONE DOES STUPIDITY LIKE LSU. They are elite at it. And I'm going to tell you this - being elite at stupidity in this league? You've really done something with that, son - you have really done something.
Look at bro hit that T Rex stomp. Why can’t Ryan be like that?
So as Jeff Landry brings his Tigers into Bryant-Denny for this showdown I want to see what changes he's made to LSU's offense. Can he get Garrett Nussmeier going? That's really the thing - we know what Nussmeier can do, but is he healthy? Can LSU figure out how to hang in there long enough to made Bama nervous in the 4th?
Going to be a lot to learn from the Tigers this Saturday night in T Town. That said - give me Alabama (-10.5) and keep it moving.
Auburn (+7.5) at No. 15 Vanderbilt | SECN | 4:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Yikes. Give me Vady. I want the ‘Dores here by double-digits. A change in leadership with give Auburn a first-half spark, and they’ll come out playing with energy, but it won’t be enough. The Auburn Tigers are losers. That’s what they do. They’re going to lose again on the road to a Vanderbilt team that can’t afford another loss. They need a solid, impressive win over an Auburn team that can’t even beat Kentucky at home. Tigers fight but Vandy pulls away late. Vanderbilt (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Auburn scored three points at home last week at night?! And, it was against one of the worst teams in the conference. Bad. Vanderbilt will win this game by double digits. The Commodores are the much better team. Give me Vandy (-7.5).
Dean’s Pick: Vanderbilt needs this one. As Lord Vader (in Auburn Framily Voice) would say to Luke: “It is too late for me”. I wouldn't be surprised if the Auburn Framily stuck around for a while, but Vandy (-7.5) is just too powerful an offense. And Auburn just sucks.
Florida (-3.5) at Kentucky | SECN | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Gators played the Dawgs strong, and they’re the more talented team, but I’m going to take the Cats at home. That half a point is tricky and has me leading Kentucky’s way. They’re playing with a little more confidence after beating Auburn and have the Gators at home. Florida might find a way to win but the ‘Cats are going to make them earn it. Lexington is tricky and this one could down to the very end. Florida’s probably better, but I’ll take the Cats to get the cover at home. Kentucky (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I don’t like this one bit. There was definitely a better game we could have picked, or at least a more interesting one. In this scenario, I am going to take the team that is getting the points at home at night. Kentucky played Texas really close up in Lexington. We have seen, for whatever reason, that it is a tough place to play. No hate or disrespect, I just never completely understood why teams struggle so much there. Kentucky (+3.5).
Dean’s Pick: I heard some discontent about my including this game in this week's picks from Ryan and Matt "Fall Wedding" DeBary.
I'm going to let you know right now that 25-yard old Matt DeBary would be pretty disappointed with current Matt DeBary missing GEORGIA-FLORIDA for a "wedding". I get it. Your wife's sister is getting married. I get it. I do.
I have a wife. She has a sister, and she's a crazy person. Do I miss games to participate in fall weddings for in-laws?
I do not.
Do my in-laws think a chili dog is a hot dog bun without a hot dog that only has chili in it?
They do.
I established dominance decades ago. I will deal with certain stupidity, but not LSU-level stupidity. And that's what happened to Matt Saturday. And, you know, he left me alone in Jacksonville with Ryan rambling on about how the Falcons "still have a shot" to get where they need to go... then something about the Hawks.
YEAH. WE ARE PICKING THE GATORS AT KENTUCKY BECAUSE THE OTHER OPTIONS WERE MARYLAND-RUTGERS, STANFORD-NORTH CAROLINA AND FSU-CLEMSON.
The Taters-Noles are on the ACC Network, which is the in-law chili dog of sports networks.
Give me Kentucky (+3.5) you two cowards.
No. 5 Georgia (-7.5) at Mississippi State | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I like Georgia in this game, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy. I’m expecting this to come down to the end where Georgia will find a way to get the job done. However, Kirby Smart doesn’t care about your cover, and if this ends up being a high-scoring shootout, getting this cover might be close. This is a win or go home scenario for Georgia. State’s offense will keep them in this game the entire way. If this is a 6.5-point line I’m probably taking Georgia, but that half a point has me leaning State’s way. The Bulldogs are going to give it everything they have with top-5 Georgia in town. They keep this one close for most of the game but Georgia once again wins the 4th quarter. Dawgs win, Bulldogs cover. Mississippi State (+7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Georgia is going to run all over this team. That is the Dawgs’ game plan, and Mississippi State’s run defense is going to allow it. I think this is one of the few games this year where we see Georgia in control for most of it. That has not been the case. No 4th quarter comeback this weekend because Georgia (-7.5) will get a double digit win out in Starkville.
Mississippi State has been more competitive this season than the previous few, but with a poor def4nse, I think it just won’t be enough Georgia can score, it has just faced some tough units. We have seen against Tennessee and Ole Miss that Georgia can get into the 40s.
Dean’s Pick: Someone must have laid a huge bet on State when this line came out at 10.5 because it dropped way down to 7.5 on Sunday. Now, later in the week, the line has moved back up to 9.5 - a much more reasonable place to be in my view.
I know this Georgia team has shown the capability to play in the dirt with anyone, but I don't think this is an ideal matchup for State. We spent a lot of time discussing State throwing the ball on our Friday video, and that's great. But they aren't overly explosive. They aren't Ole Miss or Tennessee. State has shown it will compete in SEC play. That said, they have not played a team that can run the way this Georgia team can. That's the issue for me in this one.
Georgia can run it; State is bad at stopping the run; State is one of the most penalized teams in America. Again, I am under no illusion of what this game could turn out to be - it could be a challenge.
Or it could be what Georgia did to Kentucky. Everyone outside of Ole Miss and the Vols have struggled to score against this Georgia team - MU 7; AP 6; AL 24; UK 14; AU 10; UF 20.
Now, Georgia has been held under 30 three times this season already (AL, AU and UF) - so that's something to consider, but State isn't slowing much down (UT 41; A&M 31; TX 45; AR 35).
I'll take the Dawgs (-7.5) to cover in this one - particularly at the number we got.
Season ATS
Matt - 31-52
Ryan - 45-38
Dean - 37-46
Week 10 Picks
