UGA Football Hosts Lane Kiffin's Rebs | Who Will Win Georgia-Ole Miss? Dawg Post Picks
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 9 UGA football have another top-ten showdown this time against No. 5 Ole Miss. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 10 LSU (+1.5) at No. 17 Vanderbilt | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m taking the logos off the helmets here. LSU can’t score and Vandy has had two weeks to prepare. I just don’t trust LSU’s offense on the road against a respectable ‘Dores defense. This just feels like a Vanderbilt win. I’m expecting Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense to try and bounce back after a tough loss to the Tide. This Vanderbilt team is still hungry and they’ll win a close game at home. Vanderbilt (-1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I have been trusting LSU all season. My string of picking the Tigers finds the end of the line, here. I like Vanderbilt (-1.5) in this one. There is not much of a home environment for the Commorders, but avoiding a trip to Baton Rouge matters to me.
LSU’s offense has still yet to string together an impressive game with explosive plays. I’m rolling with Pavia and the crew.
Dean’s Pick: The line of this game has shifted slightly towards Vandy here at the end of the week. Vanderbilt has had the week off after starting well, but getting doubled up by Alabama. Now Vandy, which is a legit CFP contender, needs to have a good win to punch onto their resume. Here comes an uneven LSU squad that can't play offense for a lick. If someone told you Vanderbilt would have the better quarterback going against LSU you might slap them. The Tigers have produced two Hiesman Trophy winners lately. But here we sit, with LSU struggling, and Vandy smelling blood. Give me the Commodores (-1.5).
No. 12 Georgia Tech (+1.5) at Duke | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Jackets have had a better season, and they’ve looked like the better team, but I think this is where they get tripped up. This is a strong Duke team that has played really well over the last three weeks. They’ll be back at home after two big road trips. The Jackets are good enough to make me look bad here, but I think the home team gets it done. Two of the best in the ACC going at it. The Jackets fight hard, but quarterback Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils get it done. Duke (-1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Duke is a solid squad who is playing better. Georgia Tech is bound to trip up at some point. I am betting that does not happen on Saturday. I do think that the Yellow Jackets are the better team. I like to take the better team when it is given the points. Georgia Tech (+1.5).
Dean’s Pick:
I will admit, it is easy to sit around and talk about how good Georgia Tech is this season. They have a play-making QB. They are undefeated. They are so obviously different than the Georgia Tech we have seen since perhaps... what 2009?
But they are underdogs on the road at Duke. That tells you that the Jackets might be all of those things, and yet, not that great at the end of the day. Tech's best win of the year is over either at Colorado or over Clemson. Neither of those teams are worth much. Tech is about two plays away from 4-2. But they are something to content with if Haynes ing is healthy. Still, even he can't do it all by himself. Tech saved themselves at Wake, and I mean the ACC officiating saved them (cue Auburn complaining about officiating on Tech's behalf).
Good teams, and Tech "seems" like a good team, don't lose at Duke. Give me the Blue Devils (-1.5).
No. 14 Oklahoma (-5.5) at South Carolina | SECN | 12:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m a little torn here. My first thought is that the Sooner’s front seven could absolutely dominate this game. They could have Sellers running for his life all day and come out with a strong win. As we know, this South Carolina team just isn’t good. Plain and simple. However, the Sooners are coming off a bad loss to Texas and now have to take the road trip out to Columbia. That’s a tough ask. And it might be too many points. History says the Gamecocks are due for a big win that will surprise us all. They may not win this one, but at home, I think they’ll keep it close. I hate it, but I’ll take South Carolina (+5.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is my “I have no idea of the week.” Maybe that is a segment I will introduce in Five for Friday. I am going to go with South Carolina, and this is more about Oklahoma. I really thought the Sooners were going to take care of business last week in the Red River Rivalry. I was heavily mistaken.
Both of these teams have huge question marks- South Carolina’s more are glaring. I am taking the Gamecocks (+5.5), anyways.
Dean’s Pick: Our friends at BetQL are telling us how much this line has moved against the Sooners over the week, and it has. I Carolina has a real shot of winning this game straight up. This is a long flight, and early game. That's never ideal for the traveling team.
I will take South Carolina (+5.5) and the near touchdown I get. I'm a little concerned about Oklahoma right now. They've been fine this season, but they stole that game from Auburn, and the Texas game was a bad look - even though you can't trust the Red River Rivalry in any way.
No. 21 Texas (-12.5) at Kentucky | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: That’s a lot of points, but the ‘Horns might be starting to find some chemistry. Their defense was outstanding against Oklahoma and I expect that to travel with them to Lexington. This Kentucky team is bad, but they’re coming off a much-needed off week. Maybe they come out strong and make this one a game, but I just don’t see them moving the ball much. Look for Texas to pour it on and do whatever they can to get that offense rolling. Give me Texas (-12.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Kentucky is the early candidate to be the worst team in the conference. It is between the Wildcats and Arkansas right now. Texas is not to be trusted in the long run, but I like the Longhorns (-12.5) to cover here… late. Texas is a very talented defensive group that just needs to start putting it together on offense.
Dean’s Pick: I've got Texas to win the game, but I am going to grab the Cats (+12.5) and the double digits at home. I just think that's too many - even as bad as Kentucky has been on offense. The Cats at night can be a real fight in Commonwealth. Texas hasn't played there in modern history. UK usually gives at least one so-called power a real fight each year at home. I think this is that game (Lord knows we are running out of games for that to happen this season). If Texas wins convincingly they may have figured some things out - time will tell, but I am skeptical that's the case.
No. 23 Utah (-3.5) at No. 15 BYU | FOX | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’ll be honest. I love this game. These teams really hate each other. I like the mountain game. The colors look great on the field. MY neighbors have their BYU flags out but I think the Utes get it done on the road. BYU may be 6-0 but they really haven’t been all that impressive. Utah got smashed by Texas Tech but have been playing really well ever since. Utah needs this one to stay in the Big 12 race and I think they get it done on the road. Utah (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I proclaimed to all of you that Utah was the best team in the Big 12, and then Texas Tech destroyed the Utes. The Red Raiders have claimed that title for now. When I look at BYU’s schedule, it is playing already- the Cougars are getting by. I think that the undefeated streak ends at the hands of the Utes. Utah (-3.5) is playing better right now and is the more talented squad.
Dean’s Pick: This is a fun game, and I watch way too much BYU for a normal person, so I am into this one. Utah is the better team. They were destroyed by Texas Tech, but they've really been good the rest of the way. Again, in my watching of BYU - they aren't buttoned up the way they need to be for me to be comfortable taking them. This is a night game in Provo - and those can get a little hairy, but I expect the Utes (-3.5) to leave with a win and a cover.
No. 20 USC (+9.5) at No. 13 Notre Dame | NBC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Man, that’s a lot of points. Too many points for me. I know the Irish have been rolling of late, and I do think they’ll win this game, but I think we’ll have a closer game. The Trojans can score and they defended Justice Haynes and the Michigan rushing attack really well last week. If they can slow down the Irish on the ground this will be a 4th quarter game. I think Notre Dame wins a close one but I’ll take USC to cover. USC (+9.5)
Ryan’s Pick: Notre Dame was unlucky with the schedule it was given to start the season. Big games against Miami and Texas A&M is not. After those two losses, the Irish are performing much better.
USC can score. I like Jayden Maiava at quarterback. I am not guaranteeing a USC win, but I like the Trojans (+9.5) to cover.
Dean’s Pick:
I would say I am beyond bothered that this is a final USC-Notre Dame game scheduled. The final game of this unique rivalry? We added USC to the Big Ten so this game could get killed off? Notre Dame added Clemson in the future so we could kill off this game?
What in the hell (Sorry Father) is going on out here? If you thought UGA-Missouri was bad wait until the SEC mandates UGA-Auburn goes away in favor of UGA-Texas A&M...
RANT INCOMING:
THAT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN. AND THE BIG TEN WONDERS WHY IT ISN'T GETTING THE RATINGS OF THE SEC? IT BECAUSE OF STUPID STUFF LIKE THIS.
NO ONE CARES IF USC IS PLAYING WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN STATE OR PURUDE. THEY "DO" CARE IF THEY ARE PLAYING NOTRE DAME.
What's Notre Dame thinking here? Are they good with this? Are you really who you are without your rivals? Who is Notre Dame's rival if it isn't USC? I wouldn't want to become Penn State if I were Notre Dame - wandering around looking for a rival... or being "unrivaled".
That's so stupid. You need rivals - they push you. They allow you something to measure yourself by. Notre Dame and USC - two of the premier private schools in the nation - are deciding not to band together for a future together. This is a massive mistake. This game is part of what both schools are - once you change that you might not get it back. Nebraska has never been the same since leaving the Big 8; Miami and Virginia Tech leaving the Big East; Maryland and the ACC. I can go on, but you get the point.
As soon as you change what is part of your DNA... are you what you are? Imagine a world where Georgia "didn't" play the Gators... that would not be good. Change is a part of life - the most consistent part of life in fact - but this change?
This is stupid.
Give me USC (+9.5), but I am not impressed by the situation these schools have gotten themselves into.
No. 11 Tennessee (+8.5) at No. 6 Alabama | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I think I’m rolling with the road teams a little too much this week, but that just seems like a lot of points. I think Tennessee can run the ball well enough to keep this one tight. The Vols can score and I don’t think the Alabama defense is going to slow them down all day long. This Alabama team looks like one of the best teams in the country, and they’ll win this one, but I can see a backdoor Tennessee cover late in the game. They’ll fight hard, but the Tide win by seven. Tennessee (+8.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I feel pretty good about my pick for this one. I am taking Alabama (-8.5) to cover at home. To me, this is clearly the most difficult test for Tennessee so far. The Vols played all three of its SEC games close. Now it has to go on the road to Tuscaloosa for a night kick against an Alabama team that is hot and is getting better? I’ve got the Tide.
Dean’s Pick: Look, I think the Vols can win this game outright, but they would need to play the way they did against UGA in the first quarter of that game, and just have not been playing that way. Alabama is due for a correction, but Josh Heupel hasn't been good on the road.
Now, my issue with the Tide is even with those madmen at WR and a very good QB - they seem limited on offense. I don't get that feeling AT ALL with the Vols. I think Tennessee (+8.5) sticks with the Tide long enough to get you a cover.
No. 5 Ole Miss (+6.5) at No. 9 Georgia | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: If this line moves over 7 I might take the Rebels, but this second I’m taking Georgia to win and cover. I think The Rebels will have some trouble playing for four quarters with this Georgia team on the road. I think Georgia gets its ground game going again and I think they’ll do what they do every game. They’ll give up a score or two in the first quarter and then start slowing down Chambliss and the Rebels offense. This is going to be a really big test for the Ole Miss offense, especially with Georgia’s secondary playing better and better. I think Georgia wins a 28-21 type of game. It won’t be a blowout, and it will likely be a 4th-quarter game, but I think Georgia’s defense will get enough stops down the stretch. Dawgs get it done. Georgia (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Things are going to get dicey for the Dawgs if they don’t leave Sanford Stadium on Saturday night with a W. Georgia has a little bit more to lose after falling to Alaama again, especially with the context of what happened in Oxford last year. Revenge game? Don’t say that to Kirby.
Ole Miss will be able to score. Georgia’s defense has been susceptible in the first half, and has shown susceptibility to good passing offenses. Ole Miss has that with Trinidad Chambliss. With Chambliss also comes great running ability at the quarterback position. Georgia struggles with that.
Georgia has the capability of taking this game over. I don’t think that will happen. I like the Dawgs (-6.5) to cover this line at some point in the fourth quarter and win by about 10. I think we will see what we have continued to see from Georgia lately, which is winning the second half.
Dean’s Pick: So look, we got this game at Georgia -6.5. This line has gone up to as much as UGA -8 as I am writing this. Our friends at BetQL suggest the Dawgs should be nine-point favorites in this game. The sharps are betting more tickets on UGA, but the money is even at 50%.
Georgia is better than Ole Miss. That seems clear to me. However, Ole Miss certainly was clearly better than Washington State, and they could have gone into overtime in that game. They were losing to the Cougs with a minute to play in the third quarter.
We’ve got Lane out here cracking jokes about Kirby’s weight.
Dude.
Anyway, Lane said before the WSU game that he still didn’t know a ton about his team… I think he’s right. They beat LSU - and that’s not nothing consider that rivalry. Too often we figure out how to run down teams… Ole Miss is about as good as they have been in terms of results, but they have had a limited schedule to be sure.
Georgia… we can’t say that. We can say both teams know what it is like to be tested. This is only Ole Miss’ second road game. They turned it over twice against the Cats, and really didn’t play unreal in the Commonwealth. But they won.
This is going to be a juiced up Sanford Stadium. Kirby has challenged fans. I’m not sure if that matters like it once did or what. But I expect the Hedges to be rocking and rolling. Folks don’t have to read Dawg Post to know how critical this game is for Georgia.
They should read Dawg Post, but you get my point. I’ve got Georgia (-6.5) covering this line. I expect a good performance from this team this week. I’m not sold that we will be wondering who is going to win this game late. But if we are we’ve seen this before, so it isn’t anything new.
Its time for Georgia to play well for a full game. That’s what I expect this week. We will see.
Season ATS
Matt 20-39
Ryan 31-28
Dean 26-33
Week 8 Picks
