Who Will Win the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party? UGA or the Florida Gators?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football head to Jacksonville to take on the Florida Gators in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Vanderbilt (+1.5) at Texas | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I called Texas a bunch of frauds two weeks ago and I’m not backing down. They beat Mississippi State because the Bulldogs are losers. That’s it. This is still not a very good Texas team. Like Georgia, they’ve found ways to win tight games in different ways, but Vanderbilt has looked better than Texas all year long. The ‘Horns are favored and Vegas is telling us Texas will win this game. They’re probably right, that’s probably the smart play, but I don’t care. Vanderbilt’s the better team and they win a tough defensive battle. Vandy (+1.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is by far the toughest game of the week for me to pick after going through all of these. There is no official word on Arch Manning’s status as I am typing this. I do think Matthew Caldwell is a capable backup.
Last week we saw what Vanderbilt’s offense looked like when it went up against a premier defense in the conference. Diego Pavia made enough plays for Vanderbilt to win, but that was survival, much like Texas had to survive Mississippi State.
Texas is currently stopping the run better than any team in the SEC so far. Between that, the homefield advantage and the athlete advantage, I have the Longhorns (-1.5).
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take Texas here because as good as Vanderbilt is I am concerned about Vandy playing on the road. If this game were in Nashville I would take VU. But it is in Austin, and I bet the Horns are trying to save their season starting right now. Texas only has one SEC loss (to the Gators?), so they still control getting to Atlanta if my math is right. This is a must-win game for Texas. I'm not sure I can say that about Vanderbilt. Give me the Horns (-1.5).
Oklahoma (+4.5) at Tennessee | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is an interesting one. The Sooners “elite” defense just gave up 35 points and 430 total yards to Ole Miss and it won’t get a lot easier this weekend. John Mateer is not a good quarterback. He’s going to have some trouble in that environment. If the Vols defense isn’t complete trash I think they win this game by a touchdown. Four-quarter game, but the Vols finally beat a halfway decent team. First big win of the year and they get the cover too. Tennessee (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Picking Tennessee to cover has gone well for me this season (for the most part). On that note, I will continue that trend, and go with the Vols (-4.5). Tennessee has failed to score 40 points just twice this season. I know that Oklahoma’s defense is one of the better units in the country, but Ole Miss just went to Norman and put up 34 in the rain. I’d take Tennessee to cover an 8-point line as well in this one, for the record.
Dean’s Pick: Tennessee is perhaps the most explosive team in the nation. The Sooners are coming off a tough loss that "nearly" turned into a blowout a week ago. I like the Vols (-4.5) here. Tennessee really doesn't have a good/great win. OU might not be one at the end of the year, either. But UT needs this to keep playoffs chances as possible. Pretty much this is a must-win game for both teams.
South Carolina (+13.5) at Ole Miss | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This seems like too many points. It probably is. But the ‘Cocks are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Tide and now hit the road to play an Ole Miss team playing with a lot of confidence. The Rebels are back at home after two tough road games and will have the crowd on their side. This one could be tight for a half, but the Ole Miss offense is thriving and the Carolina offense is one of the worst in the league. It won’t be easy, but the Rebels find a way to cruise late and get the cover. Ole Miss (-13.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Oh man, did South Carolina hand that game to Alabama or what? Maybe the Tide just stole it. I don’t know how you come back from that, especially when you have to turn around and go to Oxford for a night game. I like Ole Miss (-13.5) to cover here. The Rebels still have an outside chance at the SEC Championship and a very real chance to make the College Football Playoff.
South Carolina’s offense is not even close to what I thought it could have been with the talent it has. As far as the defense goes, it seemed to shut down Alabama for a large portion of that game, but time and time again we are seeing that the Tide offense can completely stall out for a quarter or even longer.
Dean’s Pick: It's getting a "little" jumpy in Cootlumbia these days. There is concern Virginia Tech might be a landing spot for The Shane Beamer Experience if things get even jumpier. I'm not sure I buy him taking a demotion. But here we sit with USC at 3-5 with Ole Miss, A&M and Clemson left on the schedule.
Ole Miss isn't easy to stop. The Chickens are looking 1-7 in the SEC square in the face. The game with the Taters might be to save face for both programs at the end of the year.
Yikes. Give me the Rebels (-13.5) to cover that big line.
Penn State (+17.5) at No. 1 Ohio State | FOX | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m taking the Buckeyes. Not thinking too hard about this one. They’re one of the best teams in the country and get Penn State at home. Look for Ohio State to jump on them early and try to embarrass them late. The Buckeyes are playing really well and I expect them to keep it up this weekend. Big win for the Buckeyes and they’ll beat their chest about it after. Easy, comfortable victory. Ohio State (-17.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Ohio State is my vote for best team in the country right now, but I wish we could see them get truly tested one more time. I am rolling with the Buckeyes (-17.5). That offense is plenty talented to score if it needs to- it just hasn’t needed to when the defense is only allowing 5.86 points per game. That is ridiculous no matter the competition. That is better than 2021 Georgia.
Dean’s Pick: Listen. This line has moved to 20. I’ll take Ohio State (-17.5). Although PSU upgraded its program by dismissing James “Win a national championship somewhere else now” Franklin, and although Ohio State isn’t 2024 playoff Ohio State (or even 2022 Ohio State) - this just isn’t going to be competitive.
If it is that’s all you need to know about Ohio State.
Duke (+3.5) at Clemson | ACCN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’ve been wrong about a lot of stuff this year, but my Clemson take takes the cake. If they can get embarrassed at some by Syracuse they can get crushed by Duke. Vegas says Clemson wins this game, but I’m not so sure. However, they’re better at this than I am. Clemson might win, but I’ll take Duke and the points here. Blue Devils (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: The second toughest game for me to pick this week. I don’t like it one bit. I am sure there is another game we could have been picking but Dean has a soft spot for Clemson. Happy wife, happy life or whatever. I have Duke (+3.5) because the Blue Devils have looked better. What do we do around here? We take the better team with the points.
Dean’s Pick: Yeah, look… Clemson needs to halfway get back on track, but although this isn’t the Duke of old - these guys aren’t exactly killers, either. I will say this - Duke can score. Can. We aren’t talking Tennessee or Ole Miss.
Clemson? They are just plain a mess. I expect real change this winter in Tatertown. I’m not sure just how extreme we are talking, but I think everything is on the table right now. Clemson’s offense is the problem. They’ve failed to score over 30 points in 5 of 7 games. And Clemson has played some real turds.
I don’t love Duke (+3.5), but either of these two getting more than a FG - just take the points and as Chicago would say - Baby, look away.
Georgia Tech (-6.5) at NC State | ESPN2 | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m rolling with the Jackets here. They have zero impressive wins, and this one won’t be impressive either, but they’ll get the job done. Haynes King is playing his tail off and has this offense mastered. They’ll get a test for two or three quarters, but Tech’s the better team and will show it over the final 15 minutes. N.C State will make them earn it, but I’ll take Georgia Tech (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Georgia Tech is legit. Haynes King would definitely be on my Heisman ballot if the season ended today. If the Jackets take care of business the way I think they should, then this will be a one or two-loss playoff team at the end of this thing.
Georgia Tech got off to a slow start last week. I don’t think that will happen this week. I have Georgia Tech (-6.5) going into Raleigh and covering this line.
Look, I watched the Wolfpack against East Carolina and Virginia Tech. I can’t in good conscience pick NC State here.
Dean’s Pick: This might be the best last chance for Tech to blow it this season. We will see. NC State has sort of turded around this season - that’s a technical term for not doing much. But the Wolfpack is getting nearly all of the money out there from the sharps, according to BetQL.
But I’m not sure Tech will lose these ACC games. Tech could be the 6th-best team in the SEC, but they play in the ACC, and they are ranked the No. 7 team in the nation.
Give me the Jackets (-6.5), and keep your cotangent derivative jokes to yourself.
USC (-4.5) at Nebraska | NBC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Listen, this Nebraska team isn’t good. They can’t block anyone up front and I question their toughness as well. I wouldn’t call the Trojans a “tough” team either, but I trust their offense more. Even on the road, I think USC gets the job done. This game could be ugly, but USC’s quarterback play could be the difference here. Trojans cover on the road. USC (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I just don’t trust Nebraska. It is not a bad team, but the offense is not quite as explosive as you think it could be with someone that has Dylan Raiola’s arm dishing it around. Can someone tell me what Nebraska’s best win is? I can’t decide for myself.
On the flip side, I like the Jayden Maiava-Makai Lemon combo for USC. I like the big win over Michigan, and I can understand the Illinois and Notre Dame losses. I’ll go with USC (-4.5).
Dean’s Pick: This line shifted pretty quick Sunday. Look, the Big Ten is trash. You don’t need BetQL to tell you that, but I can assure you that the data points that out. Nebraska’s best win is either a one-score win over a pretty good Cincinnati team; an 11-point win over the worst team in the Big Ten (which is really saying something); a one-score win over Maryland; or a one-score win over Northwestern.
USC held in their against the Irish, but were outclassed by ten points. SC can certainly score - when they aren’t playing a legit defense. Is Nebraska a legit defense? Man, I don’t know.
We got this game before it moved - give me USC (-4.5) on the road, but neither of these teams are much of anything.
Florida (+7.5) vs. No. 5 Georgia | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Man, that line is just too low for me. The Gators lack leadership and are simply not a good football team. They have talented players, but they don’t gel as a team. They don’t have the winning ingredients. They’ll come out strong and put up a score or two early but that might be it. Georgia will win the battle in the trenches, win the run game, and Gunner Stockton will continue to play sound, safe, winning football.
This Florida offense is ugly. They’re one of the worst in the conference. They’re defense is adequate. They’re not easy to run on consistently. Middle of the pack in the conference all-around at their best.
I expect the Gators to come out swinging, but they simply can’t hang with Georgia. Dawgs turn it on and roll away with this one in the second half. Kirby and the Dawgs get another win down in Jacksonville. Georgia (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going with Georgia (-7.5) and I feel pretty confident in this pick. I don’t think the line is big enough. It might be my lock of the week. TBD on that.
This is going to be tough sledding for Florida, who has yet to score 30 points in a Power Four game this season. Even with Georgia showing defensive struggles in the first halves, Florida’s biggest challenge has been on offense.
The Gators have a solid defense. I think it is possible that Georgia struggles to run the football as effectively as it wants to, but Gunner Stockton and the passing game will get theirs.
I have been to the previous four Cocktail Parties. Georgia has won by double digits each time. That trend will continue on Saturday.
Dean’s Pick: I will say that straight up - this is going to be a difficult game for the Florida Gators to win. We know where all of the bodies are buried with Georgia. We know about the slow starts. We know about the defensive struggles against Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Florida’s offense ain’t Ole Miss and Tennessee... I’m not sure anyone is.
We know that Florida has just fired its coach. We know that this game has been prone to upsets - sure - but they are rare. Teams that are touchdown favorites or more, which UGA is in this one, are a collective 15-3 in the last 30 years of this game. Those three upsets? 1997, 2007 and 2014.
In other words, about once a decade. This isn’t the Red River Rivalry where you literally have no clue what’s going to happen. The favorite in this game (no matter the size of the line) has gone 21-8 over the last 30 years. Somehow the 2015 game was a pick’em.
The combination of Brian Schottenheimer and Faton Bauta struck enough fear into Vegas that the line moved to a pick’em.
Jesus take the wheel. Four games later Schottenheimer, Bauta and Mark Richt were all gone. Florida has won twice since that bizarre move during the 2015 season (2016 and 2020). When you take a look at this Florida team the real issue is the offense. That doesn’t mean the defense has been unreal.
The Gator defense has been fine - not unstoppable. Texas A&M, which has been pretty explosive, managed to score the season-high 34 points on the Gators. The Ags ran for 183 - that’s a lot. Miami ran for 184 - that’s a lot. USF (128) and State (144) also did fine on the ground against these Gators.
The one thing the UF defense does is it competes. And they have to considering the situation. Florida’s offense is averaging 17 points a game against teams who’s nickname isn’t “The Sharks.”
D.J. Lagway has been completely inconsistent. He’s had a five-interception game. He’s had a 61-yard game (goodness). He’s had a virtual 300-yard game. Lagway has as many interceptions as touchdowns. When removing the outlier games in terms of TDs or picks (LIU - 3 TDs; and LSU - 1 TD; 5 picks), Lagway has managed five touchdowns and four interceptions. His completion percentage this season is fine, but he’s been sacked 13 times in legitimate games.
That’s twice a game. You only get so many drives. A sack nearly always ends a drive. The Gators are averaging 12 drives a game. Each game - two sacks; one pick. That means you are going from 12 drives to nine. Florida averages five punts a game.
That leaves four offensive drives to score points. That means - if there are no non-offensive touchdowns for the Gators - that if Georgia scores 30 points they will win. I’m just showing the math - you probably did it in your head because you think you are better than me.
Four offensive drives where you have a chance to score? They had better be touchdowns. Florida? They average about 1.7 touchdown drives a game. Let’s say that’s 14 points.
You see what I mean?
Now, that’s why they play the game. And this Gator team is tough. They fight. But for 60 minutes against this flawed, but tougher Georgia team…? I don’t see it. I’m going to be dumb enough to take Georgia (-7.5) to cover the hook, which brings you back.
Season ATS
Matt 28-47
Ryan 41-34
Dean 33-42
Week 10 Picks
