Legge's Thoughts: UGA Football's 2025 Might Be Better Than Expected

ATHENS - Its that time of the year, and while talking heads are going to talk - data coming in suggests that UGA football is poised to have another big season Between the Hedges. 

On Tuesday, ESPN released its so-called FPI index, and it closely mirrored what the betting markets indicate - that Kirby Smart’s program is one if not “the” team to beat heading into 2025. 

I can assure you that’s not been the vibe since UGA lost in the Sugar Bowl. The vibe check, in our digital world, has been a negative one. End-of-season losses to teams you are just as good as or better than can do that. A let down at the end of the season to Alabama - that’s nothing new to Kirby Smart’s program. 

But losing to a Notre Dame team that could hardly move the ball was another thing. 

Then Carson Beck transferred to Miami. It appeared the final snap of his college career would be a legendary one. But it made sense for the Jacksonville native to play for the Canes with a reported $4 million payday on the line. 

Then the discussion of if UGA “wanted” Beck back. Then the discussion of the contract extension Mike Bobo, who has been a punching bag at Georgia since at least the loss to South Carolina in 1996, and his return the offensive coordinator spot in Athens this fall.

If you want to find something negative out there you can - you always can. And if there is one thing that UGA fans are elite at - and I mean elite, elite - it is finding every possible negative thing out there to worry about. 

This is what Georgia does - it worries. 

And for decades they’ve had their program train them that it is/was right to be worrisome. But reality caught up to the Dawgs, and they won back-to-back national titles, and lost three games in three seasons between 2021-2023. 

They followed that up with a “disappointing” 2024… where the program won the Southeastern Conference title for the 15th time. Georgia had three wins over College Football Playoff teams.

2024 wasn’t unreal, but it wasn’t exactly New Coke, either. 

The overreaction to UGA’s position heading into 2025 has been in the digital world. In the real wold - that’s harder to say.

There are challenges to be sure - UGA will have to get better on the line of scrimmage; it will have to get better play from the starting quarterback and running backs; UGA will have to play its best game when it is time to do so - did that happen in 2024? 

Not consistently. 

But the facts on the ground are a little different than knowing where each body is buried in the back yard, and being able to fret about that.. Georgia has problems, to be sure, but in 2025 college football everyone does. 

Jay-Z had 99 problems - college football programs this fall have a lot more than that. 

Ohio State is replacing everyone. Texas has a similar problem; has to be certain Arch Manning is as good as everyone thinks; and have the burden of not winning it all for decades. Penn State’s QB seems to be limited; James Franklin can’t win big games; and Penn State hasn’t won it all in decades; those two things are linked together at this point. Oregon and Dan Lanning have done everything right, except put it all together when the moment is huge; and the Ducks are restarting at QB. Clemson? The Tigers have a championship-winning head coach, but I question if Cade Klubnik can get it done; running back is a challenge as is the offensive line at Clemson; that’s not a great combination for signal callers. 

Notre Dame? New QB; but the path is there as the Irish play next to no one after September. 

ESPN says Texas (22%) and UGA (17.5%) are the teams most likely to win the national title. Ohio State (11) and Alabama (10%) are next, but it is hard to believe that Texas has double the chance that the Buckeyes have of winning it all. 

Auburn has a 1% chance of winning it all, which is about 1% off. 

The SEC allegedly has a 61% chance of winning it all, with the Big Ten at 26%. That seems a little off and can’t be true is the SEC has been passed by the Big Ten - as we’ve heard so much lately. 

All that said - when looking at what actual betting houses are saying about college football - they, too, have Georgia, Texas and Ohio State up there. Ohio State, no doubt, gets a lot of action because of being a huge brand and the fact that betting is legal in Ohio whereas it is not in Texas and Georgia… 

(Hey elected officials in Georgia… get into reality about betting. Y’all are allowing easily taxable funds to escape the state by VPN… and you have known this for a long, long time. Get with it.)

All that said, it is not “likely” that UGA football wins it all this fall, but it isn’t probable “anyone” should win it. Georgia is far better positioned than the digital talking space realizes. You would rather be Georgia than nearly everyone else - all things considered. 

Texas, it seems, is the most talented team in college football. But the Horns, like UGA a season ago, have a brutal away schedule this fall (at Ohio State, Georgia and the Swamp). Will they survive those trips? Probably not. Will it wear on them? Probably. 

Nonetheless, considering the state of the rest of college football Georgia enters 2025 in about as good a position as it did going into 2023… and they had their shot that season, too.