What are the Denver Broncos’ Chances of Winning the AFC Championship?
Despite being just four weeks into the 2024 NFL season, the Denver Broncos found themselves with little room for error after losing their first two games. Playing catch-up while the leaves were still on the trees wasn’t what anyone at Empower Field at Mile High had envisioned for the season and that’s exactly why the Broncos arrived at MetLife Stadium determined to make a statement against the New York Jets.
Performing Under Early Season Pressure
Though the Broncos had secured a win the week before by putting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the sword in Florida, going two from two on the road to stay in contention brought its own set of pressures.
However, after three hours of action at the MetLife Stadium that was accompanied by unrelenting rain, the Broncos managed to edge out a 9-10 win. It was a win that earned Sean Payton’s team significant praise around the NFL with some pundits even questioning whether the Broncos have what it takes to win the AFC Championship having performed so admirably with their backs to the wall.
While the debate around the Broncos being contenders at the top of the division emphasizes how quickly the narrative around teams can change, there are undeniable truths about Payton’s side that can’t be denied.
The first is that the Broncos have a watertight defense that specializes in spoiling the opponent's offense. For example, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times during the Broncos win in East Rutherford, which is the most times the 40-year-old has been brought down in an NFL game in four years.
GOT 'EMMMMMMM
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 29, 2024
📺: CBS | @Pjlocke4 pic.twitter.com/Z3PgH5VL9Z
The second recurring theme for the Broncos that bodes well for their chances of winning the division is their ability to find ways to win games. The caveat is that it isn’t always pretty; their offense lacks complete symmetry as quarterback Bo Nix continues to search for his best form. However, Nix isn’t losing games for the Broncos which is a crucial distinction to make.
Instead, under Payton's guidance, the team is managing the game effectively and minimizing mistakes.
"We got some grit and we're a tough football team."
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 29, 2024
- Bo Nix following a gritty @Broncos win | @EvanWashburn pic.twitter.com/rglJnwXxKp
Of course, it might not be to everyone’s tastes but the reality is that this style of play has proved incredibly effective over week three and four. Again, the question has to be asked, can it carry the Broncos to the AFC division title?
Improving Odds
Heading into the 2024 NFL season, there was more pessimism than optimism surrounding the Broncos' chances. Most sportsbooks predicted they wouldn’t win more than six regular season games, setting the line at +5.5. However, after week four, that narrative has shifted, with the Broncos now priced at -175 to win over 6.5 games. In other words, there's growing confidence in the Broncos' ability to exceed expectations this season.
Overall though, the long-term forecast hasn’t changed drastically with DraftKings still pricing the Broncos at +6600 to win the AFC Championship winner.
Time Will Tell
In short, the markets have adapted to reflect the upturn in the Broncos' performances but there are question marks over how much longevity this style of play has in it.
The only certainty now is that time will tell but with every passing week, more of the NFL are sitting up to take notice of a side that is proving dangerously adept at getting over the line.