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Do the French provide hope?
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Last: 4 yr ago by ColonialDawg
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Their rates are microscopic compared to ours.
If we get to that level we will see fans in the stands for sure
If we get to that level we will see fans in the stands for sure
Nobody wants to be the one to break the news, but chances of fans in the stands is about 1%. I'll set it slightly higher than zero because miracles happen.
I will just be happy if we have football at all this year.
I will just be happy if we have football at all this year.
I saw an ad pop up on my feed today for UVA fans to get tickets to the game vs UGA. I thought that was odd, bc if you go to their website and try to buu tickets - there is no info and it's not available.
Lost in all the media freak out is that the last week has seen the lowest deaths since March. That should be what everyone in America is focusing on but instead we are freaking out over "spikes" of cases that really aren't important, since at no point in the whole thing have we been able to capture even 25% of cases and we won't be. If we had the same amount of testing in March and April as we do today, using their positivity rate, we would have been confirming 250k a day, dwarfing our numbers today. So really focus on deaths, cause we are a lot better at measuring those than cases and frankly the data there is quite optimisitic
What you are saying is true. Fewer deaths as a percentage is a good thing. Fewer total deaths is also good.
But if we had this level of testing in March (like the Germans and South Koreans) and if we would just wear the damn masks we would be in such a better place.
Because despite the accuracy of your comment about the falling mortality rates ... the hospitals in the most troubled markets are filling up. They just are.
So...both things can be true. It can be less lethal now. And still be a huge issue.
But if we had this level of testing in March (like the Germans and South Koreans) and if we would just wear the damn masks we would be in such a better place.
Because despite the accuracy of your comment about the falling mortality rates ... the hospitals in the most troubled markets are filling up. They just are.
So...both things can be true. It can be less lethal now. And still be a huge issue.
Although the virus has spread...which is relative...the death rate or mortality rate has dropped.
The only way to get through this is to go through this. It is a virus.
The only way to get through this is to go through this. It is a virus.
I agree. Mortality rates are also a lagging indicator. Let's see where they are in 2-3 weeks. These next few months are not going to be pretty.
Do you think the governors of all these states are relying on the "media freakout" to inform their decisions or their state's respective health departments?
So Trackdawg, just to be clear- your position is that the deaths aren't coming, correct? We haven't had an increase to match the increase in case volume and that is the way it's going to stay?
Not arguing, just attempting to clarify.
Not arguing, just attempting to clarify.
If everyone on the planet wore a mask, 24/7, would no one ever get sick again?
Ever? No.
Mitigate profoundly? Yes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswestfall/2020/05/12/new-study-shows-80-percent-decrease-in-covid-19-cases/
Mitigate profoundly? Yes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswestfall/2020/05/12/new-study-shows-80-percent-decrease-in-covid-19-cases/
These models have been wildly wrong throughout COVID.Gasdawg said:
Ever? No.
Mitigate profoundly? Yes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswestfall/2020/05/12/new-study-shows-80-percent-decrease-in-covid-19-cases/
However, if this were right it'd be amazing and show that the entire world that the scientific/medical community has bee doing the general public a massive disservice for decades.
COVID is very contagious. If this stops 80% of COVID transmission it should stop 99% of most viruses.
Cowling, B. et al. (2010) "Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: A systematic review," Epidemiology and Infection, 138(4), 449-456. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic- review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05
None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H). See summary Tables 1 and 2 therein.
None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H). See summary Tables 1 and 2 therein.
There's only one way to stop the virus & that's a vaccine.
All the rest is just a bunch of nibbling around the edges.
This is going to rear it's ugly head in France again. And the Brits were running hard this past weekend so only a matter of time before that starts to show results...
All the rest is just a bunch of nibbling around the edges.
This is going to rear it's ugly head in France again. And the Brits were running hard this past weekend so only a matter of time before that starts to show results...
The media is sort of selective in their "freaking out". Apparently, the virus has morphed in such a manner so that armed, looting and rampaging mobs can "peacefully protest" and take over cities while unmasked and far from maintaining social distancing without spreading the virus, yet folks can't go to work, church or view firework displays while masked and socially distanced for fear of spreading it.Trackdawg073 said:
Lost in all the media freak out is that the last week has seen the lowest deaths since March.
I realize this virus is "novel" and we are learning more and more each day, but Fauci and the media often seem to talk out of both sides of their mouths.
JudgeLarryDawg said:
Cowling, B. et al. (2010) "Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: A systematic review," Epidemiology and Infection, 138(4), 449-456. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic- review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05
None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H). See summary Tables 1 and 2 therein.
Couldn't open the page, but I did find this in the abstract...
"There is some evidence to support the wearing of masks or respirators during illness to protect others, and public health emphasis on mask wearing during illness may help to reduce influenza virus transmission. There are fewer data to support the use of masks or respirators to prevent becoming infected. Further studies in controlled settings and studies of natural infections in healthcare and community settings are required to better define the effectiveness of face masks and respirators in preventing influenza virus transmission."
I mean it's been about 4 weeks since this "surge" started happening and the deaths haven't come. Florida hospitalization numbers looks about the same as they did a month ago. Georgia ICU numbers are the same as they were a month ago. Frankly no I don't think that there will be another surge in deaths. Maybe a slight bump but probably one that is statistically insignificant. We will not be seeing 2000 deaths a day again. We freak out over cases when the most important metric, deaths, has been painting a fairly optimisitic picture.
We are bad at measuring cases, and good at measuring deaths. Presumably deaths are a function of cases, therefore we can reasonably estimate cases based on deaths and if we do this, then it's clear that this "spike" is nothing compared to April at all. Of course it's not perfect and there is some degree of lag , but to me that seems like the best way to look at the data
We are bad at measuring cases, and good at measuring deaths. Presumably deaths are a function of cases, therefore we can reasonably estimate cases based on deaths and if we do this, then it's clear that this "spike" is nothing compared to April at all. Of course it's not perfect and there is some degree of lag , but to me that seems like the best way to look at the data
We are getting better at treating this, yes.
Definitely a piece of the puzzle in help keeping deaths down. Interestingly, most doctors have completely given up on mechanical ventilation (remember those?) for all but the sickest of the sick, as normally it causes more harm than good. A lot of these newer therapies (Remdesivir, Dexmethasone) are limited in their effectiveness by themselves but combine them all and you could see a meaningful dent made in the death rate from those alone.
And let's be clear, this is absolutely a good thing, it should make any "spikes" or increase in cases a lot less scary! If we can treat this thing effectively then it really will become just another version of the flu
And let's be clear, this is absolutely a good thing, it should make any "spikes" or increase in cases a lot less scary! If we can treat this thing effectively then it really will become just another version of the flu
I don't remember anybody predicting the type of surge in "cases" that we're seeing.
Why didn't anybody predict this?
Why didn't anybody predict this?
cantonk9 said:
I don't remember anybody predicting the type of surge in "cases" that we're seeing.
Why didn't anybody predict this?
It's not like it wasn't questioned...
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/when-will-we-know-if-reopening-states-has-worked-or-backfired
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This thread is about to be moved.
Our peer countries aren't having the issues we are and they are reopening. It seems that they have a more sophisticated approach than ... the only way through it is to just survive it.
You were touting testing by Germany and SK early on. They were testing roughly 400 a day per million.PaulWesterdawg said:
Our peer countries aren't having the issues we are and they are reopening. It seems that they have a more sophisticated approach than ... the only way through it is to just survive it.
Currently, they aren't testing nearly the level we are.
Germany is testing 778 per million a day.
South Korea is testing 200 per million a day.
America is testing 1,923 per million a day.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
Germany has tested 70.1 per 1,000. South Korea 25 per 1,000. U.S. 105 per thousand.
Also, our "peer" countries have significantly less population and overall land mass. Germany has 83 million and is slightly smaller than Montana.
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Can you point to other practices by our peers? Obviously, we are testing at a significantly higher rate than other countries. This is clearly going to lead to more positives especially considering we have many people asymptomatic.
Sorry - was started to be a glimmer of hope for college football this fall...
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It's just a heads up that when we start moving down the path of political talk things will get moved and the discussion can continue on the back porch.
Politics aside, at the end of the day, it comes down to stress on the medical ecosystem.....Hospital ICU's are filling back up and that's never a good sign.
This is actually not true, or if it is I am unaware where this is occuring. In GA they are roughly the same as a month ago, same in Florida. In Texas they are about 5% above pre-pandemic levels, hardly apocalyptic numbers. Phoenix still has about 20% ICU capacity, which is roughly the normal number they run at. If hospitals were truly starting to overflow, you also would be seeing deaths rise. This idea that hospitals in the south are overflowing with covid patients is yet another figment of the media imagination. The media on all political spectrums, including the national sports media, has been incredibly dishonest throughout this entire process and refuse to accurately report data unless it's bad. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions are roughly flat throughout much of the country except very isolated pockets, this is borne out by the death numbers continuing to fall. Unfortunately you will never hear about any of this in the media and you have to do all of the research yourself.
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