The Transitive property of geometry that is...if A = B and B = C, then A = C.
So, if UF beat LSU and LSU thumped us, UF should have trashed us, right? Wrong.
Conversely, Since we prison raped UF, we should have done the same to the same LSU team that took us to the woodshed a week earlier, right? wrong.
So, let's consider UK....they had to have a TD pass with zero...ZERO seconds on the clock to escape with a win against Missouri. Therefore, we should bullwhip them, since we crushed Missouri earlier in the season right? Well, if this crazy season continues with it's craziness....it's just not going to be that easy.

Fortunately, I think we are better than UK. I just think we have better athletes. Having Rice in the lineup healthy will be the difference in stopping Snell.

So...my early pick....UGA 37 Uk 21

Thoughts?

Syllogism, a fancy word, doesn't work well in CFB, as you note.

One can look further into things like MOV for common opponents, but that also may not work.

The game itself turns on unpredictable factors like turnovers and special teams play and dropped or tipped passes that fall one way or they other.

Correct...so Cincy.....in your humble opinion, are we overrated as Tommy Tuberville said, or not?

If you look at the transitive property for an individual game (ie. us vs Fla vis-a-vis our respective games vs LSU) then sometimes it holds true, sometimes it doesn't. The reason is exactly as Cincy indicated, that games can turn on several things - turnovers, bad calls, or just a case where you plain and simple didn't play well. The reason it did not hold true for us is that Fromm just had a bad game vs LSU. As a matter of fact, statistically it was the worst game of his career.

Now that may be because LSU has the best defense Fromm has seen in his career. But I don't think that's true because if they did they would have beaten Florida. They would have beaten Auburn by more than 1 point. They would have beaten Mississippi State worse than they did, and so on. LSU is good, but they're not THAT good. Fromm had a bad day. Hey, Tom Brady has bad days. Brett Favre had bad days. It happens. After breaking the film down on that game, I'll go out on a limb and say that had Fromm connected on that early deep ball to Mecole (which was barely a foot too long, btw), we very well may have won that game. One throw. Like Cincy said, a pass that fell just short. But that's all water under the bridge.

Where I think the transitive property has a more likely chance of holding true is when you look at a whole bunch of games. We mentioned Missouri, they beat them by 1, we blasted them by 14. Look at South Carolina. They beat them at home by 14, we blasted them on the road by 24. Look at Vanderbilt. They beat them by 7, we pounded them by 28. And look at Florida. They beat them by 11, we beat them by 19. That's four common opponents - half the season.

Fromm was able to recover and have a good game vs Fla. If he stays at it and has just an average game for him (his career QBR is 165), we win this one going away. Kentucky has been good defensively, but they have played only one team in the top 40 nationally in rushing offense. That was Mississippi State - who is not in the top 100 in either passing offense, or pass efficiency offense. We are 27th in rushing and 7th in pass efficiency. We're a completely different animal than anyone they've faced. If Fromm is Fromm, I'll call it 38-24 Dawgs. We cover and take the over.

Sleep well.