Who Will Win? Dawg Post's College Football Playoff Picks Are In!
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ATHENS - The Dawg Post crew gives their picks for another massive weekend of college football - this week the start of the College Football Playoff’s 12-team tournament.
Florida (-11.5) vs Tulane - Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl (Seriously) | ESPN | 3:30 Friday
Matt: I’m hammering the Gators in this one. Vibes are good in Gainesville and they’re looking to end a nightmare of a season with a strong ending. DJ Lagway is a weapon and he has a chance to open some eyes once again. I expect Lagway and the Gators to come out strong and win a drama-free game against a Tulane team that hasn’t seen a team like Florida. The Gators win big. Florida (-11.5).
Ryan: Florida exceeded my expectations. I legitimately thought this team might go 3-9. Everything looked rough on paper ahead of the season. I think that this team clearly likes Billy Napier. I think DJ Lagway is special. I think Florida (-11.5) will cover the big line. They have momentum.
Dean: I'm taking this game seriously. I love it. I am eager to hear the reasons why the Gators are a contender in the SEC in 2025. I know this - they should certainly win this game, and cover. Give me the Gators (-11.5).
CFP First-Round Game: Notre Dame (-7) vs. Indiana | ESPN | 8 PM Friday
Matt: I like Notre Dame to win, but I’m expecting the Hoosiers to come out swinging. They may have the best run defense the Irish have seen all year long. If they can’t run through Indiana and need Riley Leonard to sling the ball 30+ times, Indiana can absolutely win this game. It’s the biggest game in program history, and they have a head coach who knows what he’s doing. Give me the Irish to win a tight ballgame at home, but I’ll take Indiana to cover. Hoosiers (+7).
Ryan: The most consequential game for the Dawgs this weekend is also one of the most difficult to predict. Both of these teams destroyed bad teams pretty much all season. Notre Dame’s slip up was bad but now seems like a really long time ago. Indiana couldn’t overcome its mistakes and keep up with the Buckeyes in the one game it played against another contender.
Indiana does a good job of stopping the run. The Hoosiers did not let Ohio State gash them in that department. Ultimately, I do think that Notre Dame’s rushing attack will be too much for Indiana. Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard will get theirs. If not, this game is a toss up.
I don’t feel great about it, but I am going with the Irish (-7) here.
Dean: I've got Indiana here for no other reason than I can't get a great feel on this game. Notre Dame really looks better than the Hoosiers, and looks pretty good overall to be honest. But they've really not played anyone that matters. Their best win was over Army... Give me Indiana (+7) and the free points.
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CFP First Round Game: Penn State (-8.5) vs. SMU | TNT | 12 PM
Matt: This one I don’t feel great about, but I think the Ponies keep this one closer than the experts think. They’re strong against the run and have enough pieces on offense to put points on the board. Penn State wins this game because they’ll win the battle in the trenches, and eventually they’ll overpower SMU, but I would not be shocked if SMU gave them a real fight. I still don’t trust this Penn State team to beat a good team by more than a touchdown. I expect a three-quarter fight, a Penn State win, and an SMU cover. I might look dumb here, but I’ll take SMU (+8.5).
Ryan: I think the committee felt they had to keep SMU in the playoff since it decided it was not going to harshly punish the losers of the conference title games. I get it. I still don’t think SMU is one of the 12-best teams.
That is going to show on Saturday. I think Penn State’s talent will be obvious in this one. SMU is going to struggle in that environment. The weather, the white out - it probably matters. Give me Penn State (-8.5).
Dean: I've seen a lot of folks talk about how this could be an upset, and I am not necessarily disputing that. I am sort of most curious about how easy it is to get tickets to this game. This is the most consequential game in Happy Valley in a long, long time, and you can get into the stadium for $37?
What a joke. I understand that SMU doesn't have the same name recognition as, say, Ohio State. But think of it this way Penn State fans, this is a game you actually stand a chance to win.
Give me Penn State (-8.5) to cover and tell us how great the Big Ten is.
FCS Semi-Final Game: South Dakota State (-3) at North Dakota State | ABC | 12 PM
Matt: North Dakota State’s an underdog at home? This program knows how to win and they’ve got a capable quarterback who can really run that offense. Again. South Dakota State is a hell of a team, but I’ll take the Bison at home. Their defense hasn’t been all that great, but it’s hard to see them losing a big game like this in their own building. This one should be a fun game to watch, and I’ll take North Dakota State (+3).
Ryan: Give me the Bison (+3) with the points at home. This is the FCS matchup. North Dakota State has slipped up more recently but these resumes are pretty even. With that, I turn to the home team with the points. I am almost always going to do that in a scenario like this one.
I think North Dakota State’s quarterback is pretty good. The offense is very balanced, and this program has NFL history. I like North Dakota State. Both of these teams competed with a Big 12 school in the opening week. The Bison looked better- just another note.
Dean: I'm going with South Dakota State (-3) to cover this line... in the Fargodome no less. That facility, which is North Dakota State's home field, is amazing by the way. It was built in the early 1990s and isn't a dome... and yet we call it one.
Dakota is one state, and yet we made it two... didn't we learn our lesson with the Carolinas?
FCS Semi-Final Game: Montana State (-8) vs. South Dakota | ABC | 12 PM
Matt: Rolling with Montana State. They’ve got a powerhouse. Just running through teams. They’re effective in all aspects of the game and should keep rolling right along at home. Montana State rolls again. Bobcats (-8).
Ryan: Montanta State has been absolutely dominant this season. They are likely the favorite in the FCS. I’m rolling with Montana State (-8).
Dean: Montana State is legit. That's all I have to say... lay the points and enjoy it being colder in Athens this Saturday night than in Bozeman, Montana.
Bobcats (-8) for life (NWO Macho Man voice)
CFP First-Round Game: Texas (-12) vs. Clemson | TNT | 4 PM
Matt: Texas is the better team. They’re hard to throw on. They can run the ball consistently when they’re not playing Georgia. They’re really strong defensively and should win this game. But by 12 points? I’m not sure about that. The Clemson defense is strong enough to keep Texas honest. I think they’ll be in this game for at least three quarters. I don’t expect Texas to come out and beat them up all night long. Clemson loses but covers. Tigers (+12).
Ryan: If there is one thing I feel very strongly about in this game it is that Clemson is going to have a difficult time scoring in Austin. Texas boasts one of the best defenses in college football. Clemson has combined for 17 points in its two games against Georgia and South Carolina. One game was at a neutral site and the other was at home.
The Tigers have to go to Austin to face a top defense? It’s not ideal for a Clemson offense that looked good against bad defenses in the ACC. I will not be victim to the numbers Cade Klubnik and company put up this season.
All of that being said, it feels like it has been a long time since Texas’ offense played well. Things really have not been the same since Quinn Ewers returned from injury. Clemson has a good enough defense to limit the Longhorns enough to stay in the game. I’ve got Texas winning but a Clemson (+12) cover.
Dean: No one in Clemson world thinks they win this game. A double-digit dog at a mighty SEC school? Let's face it - the Taters haven't been so hot against SEC teams of late - certainly not against good ones. That said, I think this is too many points. Clemson might not be able to score, but they can slow Texas down because they have plenty enough good on defense to make this game competitive.
12 points? This close to Christmas?
No. I will take Clemson (+12) and a line that seems too large.
CFP First-Round Game: Ohio State (-7.5) vs. Tennessee | ABC | 8 PM
Matt: Here’s how I see this one going down. Tennessee gets off to a strong start, but the Buckeyes rally late and find a way to win. Somehow, someway, Tennessee fans will blame the officials and how they were screwed out of the game. They’ll talk about it for the next nine months. They can absolutely win this game and I’ll take them to cover, but I think the Buckeyes find a way to get it done Ryan Day receives at least one more week. I think both quarterbacks are due for at least two turnovers. Not much happening through the air for either team. Whoever can establish some type of running game and win the trenches in the 4th quarter finds a way to get it done. In the end, the Buckeyes win a close one, but Tennessee keeps it close until the end. Tennessee (+7.5).
Ryan: I see these two teams pretty evenly. I wonder if my SEC bias is creeping in here, but I like Tennessee (+7.5) not only to cover but to win outright.
Ohio State is going through something right now. What happened during rivalry weekend was not normal and signs are pointing towards Ryan Day getting fired if the Buckeyes do not perform well enough during the playoff.
Ohio State has the best collective group of offensive weapons in the country, yet it seems like Chip Kelly won’t stop running the ball. They will need to get their weapons on the outside involved and not rely on the run game solely to beat a really good defensive front for Tennessee.
I needed to pick one upset and this is the one I am going with.
Dean: I'm going with the Tennessee Vols (+7.5) here. Why? Run game and Ohio State is ready to turn on its coach. Ohio State has all of the parts, but the machine won't work the right way. Tennessee probably won't win the national title, but this is the biggest game for the Vols since the late 1990s.
I expect to see a lot of Tennessee fans in Ohio Stadium - as if its some sort of fortress that can't be conquered. Its so funny hearing folks talk about the Horseshoe, Michigan Stadium and Beaver Stadium as if playing there is like its the Battle of Guadalcanal.
Once you've played at FirstBank Stadium you are battle tested.
Do folks really think Tennessee is going to be bothered by noise or weather? THE CAMPUS OF TENNESSEE IS IN THE FREAKING MOUNTAINS!!!!!
Fact: the forecast calls for it to be six degrees colder in Columbus than in Knoxville Saturday night. Please don't talk about how cold it is as it that matters in any way to the Vols - a power running team with a solid defense. Let's quit acting like Ohio State plays games at home in December WHEN THEY LITERALLY NEVER DO!!!!!
I am concerned about a lot of things, but maybe nothing more than our inability to hold facts in our head rather than fairy tales.
Ohio State should win this game. It is at home, and they have a better roster. But I don't doubt the Vols' ability to pull this one out, and you shouldn't, either. Ohio State is going to have to play well to win, and they've not done that a ton in late-season games at home this decade.
I'm concerned for the Buckeyes, and not just because of that giant orange flag they wave all of the team...