No Matter Who Admits It, UGA Football is College Football's Standard Now
ATHENS - With 11 preseason first-team All-SEC selections, UGA football is being recognized by most as today’s standard for college football excellence. Repeat championships and record numbers of players selected in the NFL Draft will do that.
No one should expect Alabama players or coaches, who certainly have set the standard for long-term excellence, to publicly concede that currently it is Georgia that is the top Dawg and is now deserving of the respect Bama had well-earned in prior years.
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It is Georgia (not Alabama) whose players are now in some cases getting the benefit of the doubt by media members when compiling preseason lists. This is an acknowledgment that Kirby Smart and his staff have been the best talent evaluators and developers over the last few years. And that is not an opinion, but rather is objectively true when considering the “hit” rate of UGA signees, whether they are “blue chips,” i.e., rated four or five stars coming out of high school, or are rated three star or lower.
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Analysis of the consensus recruiting rankings makes clear that UGA’s only true recruiting peers over the last four recruiting cycles have been Alabama and Ohio State. Those three schools are the only ones to average a top five nationally ranked recruiting class during 2020-2023, with Alabama’s average rank being 1.5, followed by Georgia (2.5) and OSU (4). Also, those three schools sign far more top 150 ranked high school players than anyone else, with Alabama signing on average nearly 15 top 150 players each year, Georgia signing nearly 13 such players and OSU 11. In other words, those three programs currently sign nearly 26% of the most elite prospects, including during that period, Alabama signing a total of 23 five stars, Georgia signing 18 five stars and Ohio State 13.
Aside from the absolute freak athlete five stars (traditionally ranked 1-32), recent experience suggests that it is hard to distinguish a top 33-50 ranked player from one ranked 50-150. These are all uber-talented players with the highest NFL Draft upside.
Of course, what is noticeable above is that, according to the industry rankings of high school players, it is Alabama (not Georgia) that has been the very best recruiter lately. Does it not then stand to reason that – if Alabama is selecting the “right” blue chips (and non-blue chips) and developing those players as well as any other program – it should have more quality depth at every position than any team in America? And, thus, should any Bama season ever be considered a “rebuilding” year? Further, should Alabama ever blame a championship game loss on account of a few players getting injured given how many capable replacements it should have on its roster?
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If the Crimson Tide were currently evaluating and developing talent as well as any other program, then (with more top-rated recruits) it should continue to “hit” on more players and have the most players drafted each year. Yet, Alabama’s recruiting ranking prowess, notwithstanding, the trend over the last three years has been historic for Georgia, with a record 15 UGA players selected in the 2021 NFL Draft and with the record for the most players selected over a two-year span (25) and over three years (34). This trend is likely to continue, as it is expected that UGA will break (maybe shatter) its own 2021 record in the 2024 NFL Draft. And this does not account for the handful of Georgia players that transfer each year seeking more playing time. Recent examples include receiver Jermaine Burton and linebacker Trezmen Marshall to Alabama, former three star receiver Adonai Mitchell to Texas, and defensive lineman Bear Alexandar to USC, to name a few. These are hardly missed evaluations or “busts.” Rather, these players, like many other recent transfers from UGA, will likely be starters or major contributors at their new destinations and are likely to be drafted in the coming years, like Jermaine Johnson who left a crowded Georgia defense in 2021 for Florida State and was drafted in the first round in 2022.
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A big part of Georgia’s wide talent advantage, albeit lesser so over Alabama, is UGA's evaluation and development of all players it signs, regardless of star rating. Georgia is currently developing blue chip prospects better than any other program and has also done an amazing job of selecting the right three star (or lower ranked) players and developing them into fantastic college players who can play in the NFL. Among many recent examples include NFL first-rounders Eric Stokes and Jordan Davis, fourth round selection Stetson Bennet and 2023 first team preseason All-SEC players Javon Bullard and Ladd McConkey.
When considering that Alabama has routinely been number one in industry recruiting rankings, as compared to recent on field and draft success, it becomes evident that (relative) to Georgia, Alabama has been underachieving of late, particularly in terms of its player “hit” rate. This is not to say that Bama cannot or will not win the CFP Championship this year, and oddsmakers suggest they are the second most likely team to do so (behind Georgia). If The Crimson Tide do win it all again this upcoming season, then it will (again) have the rightful claim to being considered the game’s current best.