Jamie Newman’s Surging Stock
ATHENS - Is it strange to anyone other than me that Jamie Newman’s odds to win the Heisman Trophy are behind only Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence?
Keep in mind that if you wanted to wager that Jake Fromm would win the Heisman this coming fall - before he left for the NFL - you would not have gotten better than 5th-best odds.
What are the forces that are combining to make this a reality in betting markets? Is this a matter of the unknown that is Newman at UGA? Had betters seen enough of Fromm at the time, and pushed him below Auburn’s Bo Nix for 2020? (Nix is listed as the No. 9 favorite to win the award now… just ahead of Alabama’s Mac Jones)
We all know what you get with Fields and Lawrence - one of the two of them is the best quarterback in the country coming into spring ball. That they are both so highly thought of might hurt their chances to win the award (as odd as that sounds) because the expectations are off the charts. Lawrence is hurt, too, by a lack of competition in the ACC (save the hate mail folks). What’s the last big game the Tigers played in the regular season?
But those two certainly belong as the No. 1 and No. 2 choices.
Here are my questions:
A slew of players who were coming back as known quarterbacks a year ago cleared out and headed to the NFL (Fromm, Tua, Joe Burrow, Jacob Eason, etc.). Is that the reason that two transfers, Newman and Miami’s D’Eriq King (Houston), are both sitting at +850 to win the award?
Does the market think that Newman, with UGA-level players surrounding him rather than Wake-level players, will explode in the SEC? Is this about Todd Monken’s arrival in Athens, and flushing out the slog that was last year’s UGA offense? Is this about Newman’s ability to both throw the ball (down the field if necessary), and his ability to run the ball as well (something we’ve not seen a QB do effectively since 2005) the reason he’s so high on the list?
Is this a bet that UGA’s explosion will actually be just that this fall?
Again, the top three or four players (usually four or five) head to New York for the Heisman Trophy. Are we to believe that UGA, which has been as good as it has been for so long, but has not had a player invited to New York since 1992, will have a player in NYC this winter for the first time in 28 years?
If that’s what happens - with Newman winning it or not - that almost certainly means Georgia has had another great season. Newman, in that scenario, will go down as a legend. It is just hard for me to wrap my head around him being this highly thought of by betters… they might know what they are talking about.
I want to see it before I believe it. I get that chance next Tuesday.