I'm a casual basketball fan, but a fan nonetheless.

I know we are breaking in a new coach.

I believe our talent places us in the middle to lower end of the SEC.

I expect the SEC to be a top 2 or 3 conference this year.

So, I ask those of you who follow closer and know better. What's a rational expectation for this season.

10 or fewer wins: lot's of work to do
10-15 wins: hope we gel by the SEC tourney and get lucky
15-18 wins miss the tourney
18-20 wins just miss the tourney
18+ wins and in
22+ wins and fighting for seeding

Another option?

I appreciate any opinions you want to give.

Enjoying what Kirby has built on the football side, excited for what I think Crean is going to build when he starts bringing in his guys.

18-20 wins and a bubble team should be about right. A ton is going to depend on the growth of Hammonds and Claxton. Hammonds especially could be a guy who puts up 15+/game.

Also, Harris. If he can improve upon where he was as a freshman.. He showed promise as a freshman to be a lock down perimeter defender as well as a guy who could knock down shots. Last year, in limited playing time, it looked like he regressed a ton.

Is Hightower able to control the game as a PG? Can he play 25 min/game and be the guy. Turtle is not that guy.

Ogbeide is the constant on the team. He should get more touches now too down low with Maten gone. I'd like to see him put up 9-10/game and about 7 boards/game. Very doable for him.

If that stuff goes right, UGA could very well be a 9-10-11 seed or so. If not it'll probably be the NIT

that we will eventually get another recruit in this class.

I think Claxton becomes a star. And Hightower will, at worst, be a Charles Mann style drive guy at point. And it appears we have suitable backups to survive for 10-15 minutes when Hightower rests. Ogbeide and Edwards can do dirty work in the middle (combine for say 12, 12, and 2?).

The biggest question to me, and the difference between a 10 win struggle of a rebuilding year, and a 20 win bubble team, is the wing areas. We have bodies, and some legit talent, but how do they adapt and step up?

Hammonds show what had him so highly rated as a wing F?
Crump become more efficient but still effective at G?
Harris finally get going as a SG/SF?

Then add Toppin, Turtle, Toe, Ignas, and Fagan as other options, though with seeming less upside to be a 1st or 2nd choice guy offensively with Claxton than Hammonds, Harris, or Crump.

If two of those three can join Claxton as high level producers, we can challenge for an NCAA. One, and maybe NIT? But if all three struggle (or heaven forbid if Claxton gets hurt), it'll be a long, long year.

Put me down for 10-15 wins. I sure hope I'm wrong, but the league has gotten so much better over the past 5 years, and while we hopefully have our great coach, many other teams found theirs 2, 3, or 4 years ago.

I imagine this season looking a lot like Harrick's first year: a talent deficit, not a ton of wins, but flashes that leave us excited for 2019-20.

I've told many friends that I'm looking forward to losing some games 80-78 instead of 60-58, and I mean that sincerely. I want to see aggressiveness and purpose on the offensive end, intensity on the defensive end, and some high level recruiting battles going our way. I believe those things will happen, and I believe the wins will come...just maybe not this season.

StevieBuckets said:

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Put me down for 10-15 wins. I sure hope I'm wrong, but the league has gotten so much better over the past 5 years, and while we hopefully have our great coach, many other teams found theirs 2, 3, or 4 years ago.

I imagine this season looking a lot like Harrick's first year: a talent deficit, not a ton of wins, but flashes that leave us excited for 2019-20.

I've told many friends that I'm looking forward to losing some games 80-78 instead of 60-58, and I mean that sincerely. I want to see aggressiveness and purpose on the offensive end, intensity on the defensive end, and some high level recruiting battles going our way. I believe those things will happen, and I believe the wins will come...just maybe not this season.

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Stevie, I think you are pretty close. I was thinking 14-17 wins. I think the article AF linked in another thread is pretty accurate. There is nobody on the roster that Crean knows he can count on. He will be playing this season by feel. It will be a learning process for both Crean and the team. I don't want to get my hopes up. I just don't see where we get consistent points from every night. Everybody on the team has to step it up. That's a tall order. Like you, I look forward to more exciting games, even if we don't win as much. If we can get to the middle of the conference, I will be happy. Playing faster will serve us very well in recruiting and down the road. We may get a couple of unexpected wins along the way. I don't expect an NCAA berth at all. We are in transition. It takes time.

I think he can rely on what he'll get inside Monk. Claxton looks ready to take on a much bigger role, while Ogbeide and Edwards are veteran commodities in the middle. We should be solid up front.

The question is outside, and what we can get offensively and defensively from Hightower, Turtle, Crump, Harris, Hammonds, and the freshmen.

Begger, I would like to agree with you, but Ogbeide, while a veteran, is not exactly an offensive juggernaut, and Edwards has never been productive (though I think he could be in this system). Claxton will likely score most of his points on the outside, I would think, but he should get us some points.

On the perimeter, Crump is the most offensive-minded; he needs to have a good year. I'm not convinced on Turtle. Harris didn't do much in the little scrimmage, but I was reminded that was his first action in front of an audience in many, many months. I heard he tore up practice the next day. I think Fagan could give us some good minutes on the perimeter. Ignas might give us a few minutes at G, too. I'm looking for big things from Hightower, easily our most athletic guard.

Toppin will become a star by the end of year. The Dawgs got a really good basketball player. He needs to improve the defensive side, but loves Crean's offense. Project 1st team SEC Freshmen.

Toppin is super athletic, and we are glad to have him, but predicting him to be a star in his freshman season might be a little much. Granted, a freshman coming in this season will be on equal footing with all the upperclassmen because it's a new system. Nobody has the advantage of experience in the system. But I just don't see immediate stardom for Toppin. He needs to get stronger. The SEC is very physical, and we need to see how he reacts to that.

I was at Stegminia. His foot work and speed was impressive. In this offense he should be used a lot.
Maybe I went to far in my expectations but he was one of the players that stood out.
I want UGA basketball to become important as much as Football. I know I'm dreaming but it would be great.

I'm completely with you in terms of wanting success for the program. I think Toppin has a lot of potential. Keep in mind he was not a big scorer or major player on his HS team at Norcross, likely because they had tons of talent and only 1 ball. I think he can give us good minutes, but I'm not ready to say he will be a star. He's at a position where we may sign 3 kids at the same position in the next class. He could get recruited over. But he is super athletic and his game could develop.

I think about what we've seen the last several years. Win the close ones and we flirt with 20 wins overall and go about 9-9 in the league.

Claxton, Ogbeide and Hammonds are not too far behind any front court in the league. They compliment each other greatly. I like how all three pass the ball. Collectively they can be really good. If one or two in the backcourt will fulfill their potential we will be on the bubble (once again). Turtle, Crump, Harris and Hightower all could average 10. Will they, who knows? Need about 30 avg points combined out of those four.

I know how the league has improved... but all this lack of talent Crean inherited is ridiculous.

Can't wait to see them in B'ham Thursday.

I could see 5 guys average in double figures in this offense, maybe even 6. If we could do that, we certainly could have a successful year.

I see 7 who could average 10ish... Claxton, Crump, Hammonds, Ogbeide, Turtle, Harris and Hightower. They all have the chance to average 8 to 12. I think Claxton, Crump and Hammonds get us 10 plus with Ogbeide and Turtle not too far behind. Harris and Hightower are hard to peg at this point. If Hightower gets there he'll have to improve greatly at the line. Harris can score in bunches... I'd love to see him have a breakout season.

I'm counting on Hightower to improve greatly at the line. If not, give me an hour with him, and I'll straighten him out. FT shooting is almost all mental, like hitting a 3 ft putt. Routine solves a lot of issues.

Harris has never been a consistent scorer at our level. I would love to see it. He just needs to play with more confidence and put more air under his shots.