Who Will the 1st Round of the College Football Playoff? The Picks Are In
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 3 UGA football will watch this week as the College Football Playoff begins in Norman. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Kennesaw State (+3.5) vs Western Michigan | ESPN | 11:00 AM, Friday
Matt’s Pick: This one’s easy. The Owls are Conference USA Champs and looking for more. They’re on a mission and playing terrific football Amari Odom is having a giant year at quarterback and the coaching staff is as good as it gets in the conference. Western Michigan has no ides what’s coming their way. They should be honored to share the same field as the Owls.The Owls are coming to hunt and they’ll get the job done easily on Friday morning. Owls (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I have first place for our picks all but locked up, so I will choose Kennesaw State (+3.5) for the vibes and for Matt. Dean and I were at an Atlanta Hawks game when the Owls won the Conference USA title. They put on an impressive comeback drive at the end of that game. Go win a bowl game.
Dean’s Pick: Have you ever been to Myrtle Beach? Don't bother. Place is a total mess. This one is in Conway - that's not Myrtle Beach, but it's pretty close. Now we have to watch this monstrosity at 11 AM? What is this - some Arkansas home game being show by Jefferson Pilot in 2008? I love Matt's confidence in these strange birds. Give me Western Michigan (-3.5) to cover. Only thing I will be honored by is getting out of the 843.
Memphis (+4.5) vs. NC State | ESPN | 2:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack here. That offense can score and the Memphis defense has given up at least 30 points in four of their last six games. The Tigers have lost three consecutive games and lost their coach to Arkansas. I don’t like the vibes around Memphis right now. This is an N.C State team that can be somewhat impressive one week and then get clobbered the next. However, I’ll take N.C State to win this one by a touchdown. A loss to a struggling Memphis team would be a bad look. N.C State (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: The Memphis Tigers had a very difficult November, but they have a chance to rectify that with a bowl win under a new head coach. I don’t think they will. When you are not playing your best ball down the stretch, why should I pick you to cover? The points are tempting. I want to take the points, especially considering I really did not like what I saw out of NC State the times I watched them this season. I will roll with the Wolfpack (-4.5), however.
Dean’s Pick: Yeah, look I hope to be at my destination for Christmas by the time this game is over. We will see. Look, I will watch any sort of college football - I watched the Oregon State-Sam Houston State game the night after UGA took out State in November. But do we have to be subjected to this one? NC State can't get out of its own way in terms of legitimate winning. Dave Doeren has been at State since 2013. State has never had a ten-win season, and yet they've only had three losing seasons in that time.
They are stuck in football never, never land - like this bowl game. Give me State (-4.5) here.
Washington State (+3) vs. Utah State | ESPN | 2:00 PM, Monday
Matt’s Pick: Rolling with the Cougars here. They’re playing decent football right now and half of their losses have come from Virginia on the road, Ole Miss on the road, and James Madison on the road. They’ve done a lot of traveling this year and should play a little better closer to home. Their record may not show it, but they play hard and are simply a better football team than Utah State. I think. I’ll take the points here and not look back. Washington State (+3).
Ryan’s Pick: We’re really getting into the weeds here. I am going with Washington State (+3) and the points. This is a team that kept it within four points on the road against College Football Playoff team James Madison.
Dean’s Pick: Washington State was 6-6 this season, and they are getting ready for the new-look Pac 10, which also includes Utah State, which the Cougs are playing this game. FACT: Washington State played two CFP teams on the road, and lost to the two of them by a combined seven points. Utah State would have gotten James Madison - give me the Aggies (-3).
UNLV (-4.5) vs. Ohio | ESPN | 9:00 PM, Tuesday
Matt’s Pick: UNLV let me down against Boise State, but I expect them to bounce back and end the season on a strong note. The Bobcats are completely average. Barely beating teams in the lowly MAC. The Rebels can score and I think they’re run away with this one in the second half. I’m taking UNLV (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I sat in the hotel room in Atlanta the night before the SEC Championship hoping that UNLV would make the Mountain West Championship more interesting. They didn’t. That does not mean that Dan Mullen and the Rebels (-4.5) cannot find success here. I have a feeling UNLV is going to air out the football. Let’s see.
Dean’s Pick: This is not a bad Vegas team - not bad at all. They should really handle Ohio, and I expect that to happen. I think the line is a little low - take UNLV (-4.5) to cover.
James Madison (+21.5) at Oregon | TNT | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: That half a point has me interested but I think I’ll roll with the Ducks. Dante Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in college football and they have sights set on a deep playoff run. If they can turn this one into a blowout they will take full advantage. They’re bigger, stronger, faster, and more talented. I expect James Madison to play hard and keep this halfway close for a half, but the Ducks turn it on late and barely get this cover. Look for Oregon to really impress at home. Oregon (-21.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Don’t be mad at James Madison. This is not their fault. I do not understand why this is the primetime kickoff on Saturday night. I think Oregon (-21.5) will cover this line. We may see the Ducks cruise a little bit, but I think it will be a blowout regardless. That offense will be too much for the Dukes to handle. This will set up the quarterfinal game I am most looking forward to in Oregon-Texas Tech down in Miami.
Dean’s Pick: Oregon should hammer these guys. I will be curious to watch this because the Ducks got a shot to make it to Miami for the title game if they play their cards right. Yes, James Madison earned being in the College Football Playoff. No, they don't belong. It's enough of this stupidity.
Oregon seems to have something to prove, but we will see. This isn't about winning this game. This is about "how" the Ducks look. That's the test here. Ducks (-21.5).
Tulane (+17.5) at Ole Miss | TNT | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is a big line but I don’t mind. I don’t like that half a point, but Ole Miss is a lot better than Tulane. The Rebels have won their last four games by double digits and still have Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback. I expect the Rebels to rally behind Pete Golding and win a big one at home. I could see a close game at the half, but that Ole Miss offense is tough to stop and I just don’t see Tulane keeping this one close for four quarters. I think the Rebels pull away with a big win at home. Ole Miss (-17.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I think Ole Miss will play inspired in this game. The drama with Lane Kiffin was a lot and unnecessary. Based on what I have seen on social media, the Ole Miss players are not happy with him. I think they will want to stick it to him. We saw how big of a blowout this game was the first time. This game will be tighter, but Ole Miss (-17.5) will cover on its way to a Sugar Bowl berth against the Dawgs.
Dean’s Pick: Way too much discussion about the game being close. Yeah, this is the second time they've played; Yeah, Lane left; I mean, Tulane's head coach is leaving, too. This game is in Oxford; Ole Miss is "way" better than Tulane - there isn't much to talk about here. Much like Oregon - this is about "how" the Rebs look. A struggle would be concerning. Give me Ole Miss (-17.5) to cover.
Miami (+3.5) at Texas A&M | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: You know what, I think I’m rolling with Miami here. I think this should be a really tight game and a Miami win would not be surprising. Carson Beck is playing at a high level and the Hurricane defense could give the Aggies a lot of trouble. They man not win, but I think the ‘Canes get it done and cover this line. They’ve got plenty of weapons on offense and a defense loaded with talent. Even on the road, I think Miami plays well enough to get the cover. Aggies may win a tight one, but I’m rolling with Miami to cover the spread. Miami (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick:
I have Texas A&M over Ole Miss in my personal rankings. I think the Aggies are better, even if the resume leans towards Ole Miss just a little bit. So, I am upset for them. Can you hear me banging on the table? They should be playing Tulane. Instead, they still get a winnable game against Miami. Which Carson Beck is going to show up? Texas A&M can be disruptive on defense.
Ultimately, I think the weapons for A&M on offense will be a little too much for Miami to keep up with on the road. Give me Texas A&M (-3.5).
Dean’s Pick: I don't like the way A&M has closed the season. I like the way Miami has. What does that mean? One would think that would matter... maybe, maybe not. I think the issue is is if Miami's defense can play the way it has the bulk of the season. The Canes have allowed over 22 points this season exactly one time - against Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, A&M has been not great three last three weeks of the season. Marcel Reed is going to have to play well against what is a very good defense. I don't see it. Give me the Canes (+3.5) in a straight-out upset.
Alabama (-1) at Oklahoma | ABC | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m sticking by my guns on John Mateer, but I think the Sooners defense gets the job done. Alabama can’t run the football, they’re still banged up, and Ty Simpson just doesn’t look the same. I think they’re going to have a really hard time moving the football and putting points on the board on the road against this stout Oklahoma defense. Points won’t be easy to come by, but I expect the Oklahoma defense to thrive in this one. Give me Oklahoma at home in a tight, defensive battle. Oklahoma (+1).
Ryan’s Pick: I don’t trust Oklahoma, but Alabama has a lot of problems right now. We already saw Alabama outpace the Sooners on offense at home and still lose. Now, the wounded Tide have to go to Norman. I don’t know. I think either of these teams will just get bounced by Indiana in the Rose Bowl, yet I still have to choose. I chose Oklahoma (+1).
Dean’s Pick: This is the game of the weekend in my view. That's probably why it was put unopposed Friday night on ABC. I'm not sure how eager I would be to actually put money on this one. I would be eager to take the over (41.5) because as bad as these two are offensively (despite Ty Simpson's delusional take after the UGA game) 42 points really isn't that much to ask... is it?
I'm going to take the Sooners (+1) getting the point at home. Bama hasn't been unreal on the road under Kalen DeBoer... I'm not sure who wins this one. Alabama is "probably" the better team, but they were the better team a few weeks ago, and they lost to OU.
I'd expect the same thing Friday.
