Who Will Win - Kirby Smart's UGA Football or the Texas Longhorns?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football are headed back to Atlanta to take on Steve Sarkisian and the No. 2 Texas Longhorns Saturday afternoon in the 2024 SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Western Kentucky (+3.5) at Jacksonville State | CBSSN | 7:00 PM, Friday
Matt’s Pick: I really like Jacksonville State’s rushing attack, but I think Western Kentucky’s passing attack leads the way in this one. They barely came out on top next week, and while most think they’ll lose this one, I expect this to come down to the wire. They may lose, but I’ll take them to cover. Give me the Hilltopers (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: These two teams have to turn around and play each other again? Yikes. I am not going to lie and tell you I know much about these teams. I am taking Jacksonville State (-3.5) because they get to play at home this time.
Dean’s Pick: This is a championship game like all the rest of them, and the nerves will be pretty serious in Alabama for this one. I like this back-to-back. I am sure the players and coaches hate it. Give me the home team - Jacksonville State (-3.5) - to take out Western.
No. 20 UNLV (+3.5) at No. 10 Boise State | FOX | 7:00 PM, Friday
Matt’s Pick: I'm expecting a tight game, but give me Boise by a touchdown. I think they’re the better team with the best player, playing at home. UNLV will make them work for it, but the Broncos will in the end with a win and a cover. Boise State (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Another rematch. I was the only one to take Boise State in this the first time around and the Broncos covered the small line on the road. First and foremost, Boise State is going to try to win this game, but expect Ahston Jeanty to get fed. The Heisman ballots are not due until after this game. The line is small enough for me to confidently take the Broncos (-3.5) again. For a conference championship, it is an unfair advantage for Boise State to play at home, but here we are.
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take the Rebels (+3.5) here. I think this game, like the one in the Big Ten, is going to be more competitive than folks want to make it out to be. I understand this game is at Boise, but I've watched them a ton, and while they have a spectacular running back, he's not going to play defense, too. This UNLV team went to Syracuse and won. That's a great win. They went to Oregon State and won. That's a solid win. This would be bigger than both of those. I don't think they pull that off, but I will take the free points.
Tulane (-5) at No. 24 Army | ABC | 8:00 PM, Friday
Matt’s Pick: Give me the Green Wave here. They’ve been a borderline top-25 team all year long and were rolling right along until they got hit by the Memphis train. I expect them to bounce back and beat Army by at least a touchdown. They’ve been consistent in their run defense, unless they're playing Memphis, and I think they’ll cover the five points. Tulane (-5).
Ryan’s Pick: I really wanted to take Army to win this one. I almost did it, too. The final data point that swung me the other way is that Tulane destroyed Navy. Army and Navy are not exactly the same, but it was enough to sway me. Tulane is not as good as it was a year or two ago, but I like the Green Wave (-5) this week.
Dean’s Pick: I expect Tulane (-5) to recover this week, and win at West Point. Then we all head to The Boot for refreshments.
Iowa State (+2) vs. Arizona State | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I think Arizona State’s riding a little too high for me. The Cyclones have had a couple tough losses and several ugly wins, but I think they’ll be ready for this one. Evenly matched game, but I think the Sun Devils are bound for a humbling loss to a well-coached Iowa State squad. I’ll take the Cyclones (+2).
Ryan’s Pick: I mulled over this one a little bit just because I haven't watched these teams as much as I have watched the rest of the teams from power conferences here. To me, this is a pick ‘em, and in that case, I am taking Iowa State (+2) with the points. Arizona State looks like it has played a little bit better football than the Cyclones recently. I just like Iowa State a little more here. I think it is the better team.
Dean’s Pick: Very curious matchup - I like that the Big 12 goes early in the day. Too bad for ABC this isn't 10-2 BYU vs. Colorado, but I don't make up the tiebreakers. I'm going to take Iowa State (+2), but this is a total crap shoot.
Ohio (-2.5) vs. Miami | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: The battle of Ohio. What a rivalry this one is. Throw out the record books game? I want some flags planted in this one. As for the game, I’ll take the Bobcats. They’re playing well, they have a strong defense, and I expect them to win this one by more than a field goal. The numbers aren’t great, but they play well collectively and are playing at a high level. Bobcats (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I’m going with Ohio (-2.5).
Dean’s Pick: The best part about this is that Ryan Day won’t be coaching. I will take Ohio (not State) (-2.5).
Marshall (+5.5) at Louisiana | ESPN | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Thundering Herd are playing well right now. No doubt about it. They’ve got good players, but I’m taking Louisianna here. They’re playing at home, they’re offense has been clicking, and they’re defense is stout. These Cajuns can play and I think they’ll win a big game at home. Almost too many points here, but I’ll take them anyway. Cajuns (-5.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I like Louisiana (-5.5) here. This team only lost two close games to solid teams - one of them being Tulane. It helps to play at home too.
Dean’s Pick: Men of Marshall (+5.5) - just flying around the field.
No. 3 Penn State (+3.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon | CBS | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: That half point makes me think a little, but in the end, I think Oregon’s a better team. If they can find the endzone instead of settling for three, I think they’ll be able to outscore Penn State. They’ve looked better all season long, they have a quarterback who can take them all the way, and I think a late score puts this one out of reach. Tight game for most of the way, but the Ducks take over and cover in the end. Oregon (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am a little surprised that Oregon is not favored by closer to a touchdown. I am definitely surprised that the get in price for the B1G Championship is like $28 after transaction fees. If it was physically possible for me to get to Indiana after the SECCG then I would go up there.
Oregon has been the best team in college football so far. That is how I feel. I do not ignore what it looked like for the Ducks during September. It was not pretty. The last couple of months have been good for Oregon. It is not a super dominant team, but it has been the most consistently good team in the country.
I am taking the Ducks (-3.5) with confidence. Penn State will slow down the Ducks a little bit- enough to prevent this from being a blowout. I have faith in the Nittany Lion defense. I do not have faith in the Nittany Lion offense.
Dean’s Pick: I think this game might be closer than folks think. I expect Oregon to win, but two things stand out to me on this one. First, why in the world is this line so low? If Oregon is only favored by half a score over Penn State then how good are they really? Second, how is it possible the get-in price for this game is under $20. What an embarrassment for the Big Ten - a league that has plenty to be embarrassed about right now between the pepper spray and James Franklin telling fans - FANS! - to lock in. But that low a get-in price... This isn't a Panthers' game. Give me Penn State (+3.5).
No. 17 Clemson (+2.5) vs. No. 8 SMU | ABC | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Call me crazy, and maybe it’s just because I want to see it happen, but I think Clemson bounces back with a win. They played Carolina tight, but they played one of the most electric quarterbacks in the game. SMU doesn’t have Sellers on their sideline. If Clemson plays tough defensively and Klubnik can limit the turnovers, I think Clemson wins the game. It’s all on the line and I think they’ll be ready for the challenge. Close win for the Tigers. Clemson (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going with SMU (-2.5) here. I have watched Clemson more than I have watched the Mustangs. I have watched enough to know that this Clemson team is not worthy of a 12 team playoff. Some will make the same argument about SMU, with the only real difference being that Clemson had to deal with Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson lost to LaNorris Sellers last week. He scrambled the Gamecocks to victory. I thought it was an embarrassing way to lose.
Dean’s Pick: Give me the Ponies (-2.5) to cover this line. I'm not sure I know a lot about SMU, but I know that Clemson has a QB that is far too unreliable throwing the ball for me to trust him. Clemson was favored before the weekend, why did the number swing against them?
I'm not sure, but Dabo has now lost two of three to Shane Beamer of all people, and it is time for the Tigers to course correct... would a loss here provide that opportunity?
No. 5 Georgia (+2.5) vs. Texas | ABC | 4:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Again, call me crazy if you want, but I’ve got a weird feeling Georgia once again steps up when they need too. It’s never easy to beat a team twice and this is a very banged-up group. There's a reason why most people believe Texas will win. I get it, but I think Georgia fights and claws their way to victory. They’re more battle-tested, Carson Beck is playing better, and the defense wants to prove the doubters wrong. That group has been called out a lot over the last two weeks, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them come up big again. They can 100% lose this game, but my gut says they step up and get the job done. Georgia (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am looking at this in the context of what happened in the first matchup between these teams and after that. What led everyone to picking Texas the first time was that the Longhorns were at home, had been dominating smaller schools and looked good on both sides of the ball. Georgia was all over the place and still is to be quite frank.
I’ve honestly liked what I have seen from Georgia more since that meeting at the midway mark of the season. Texas has not had to deal with an Ole Miss type of game. I suppose that is what Texas A&M was, and they passed that test. Georgia is just so much more battle tested, and you know that it can come back from a large deficit.
It is hard to beat a good team twice, but we saw what Georgia could do to Texas while playing poorly on offense. I think Georgia will be more prepared for the environment and the moment in Atlanta. Georgia (+2.5).
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take Texas (-2.5) in this one. This is a coin-flip game, but the slow nature that Georgia has started games more often than not doesn't give me confidence. Too many times this year we've seen this team play to the level of its foe - will that happen again in Atlanta?
In Austin, UGA played well above its opponent - and won by 15 at the No. 1 team in the nation. Since then both teams have played fine, but Georgia has lost. It has to be said that Texas played about the most favorable schedule in the history of the SEC... and now it is in the biggest game of the year for the SEC. I would have taken Texas against Alabama, as well, but the fact is that none of these teams are playing great right now. Georgia appeared to have turned the ship in the right direction, until getting down 17 to Georgia Tech at home.
Texas has been fine, but they've not been unreal, either. When you consider that the Horns don't have a win over a top-25 team, and played the bottom part of the SEC table - the Gators, State, UK, OU and Arkansas - the fact is we don't know as much about Texas as we know about the rest of the league.
Georgia has been in this fight before, so they are used to it. Texas has literally never played in this game, ever. All that said, no outcome in this game would surprise me.
Season ATS
Matt | 57-59
Ryan | 54-62
Dean | 58-57