Who Will Win - Kirby Smart's UGA Football or the Florida Gators?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 1 UGA football are headed back to Atlanta to take on the Florida Gators in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State | FOX |12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Do we have a quarterback controversy in Happy Valley? Their defense is fantastic, but I don’t think they have enough firepower to score with the Buckeyes. They can play with the Buckeyes in the trenches, and they’ll play them hard until the end, but the Buckeyes will find a way to get it done. This Penn State team is solid, but they’ll drop this one. Give me Ohio State (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is the first time in a few years where I am not 100% sure who is going to win this game. I would have told you confidently that the Buckeyes will win and probably cover. Well today, I am telling you unconfidently that I think Ohio State (-3.5) is going to win and cover.
What does it come down to? Penn State just has not dominated any team or shown true offensive explosion. Ohio State has issues. The offensive line is just okay and the defense has not quite lived up to its billing (literally). Like I said, I like Ohio State more but don’t take my word for this game.
Dean’s Pick: I do not believe, trust... whatever positive word you want to associate with good things... anything about Penn State under James Franklin. That said, he's got an outstanding opportunity this weekend to all but end Ohio State's chance to win the national title... but certainly end PSU's chances to win the Big Ten.
This is a/the critical moment for Ohio State. If you don't win this game there's not a lot to collect at the end of the season - just a home date against Indiana remains as a possible win over a possible playoff team.
So here his Penn State's chance... no real pressure, and a shot to take out Ohio State very possibly for the rest of this season. I fully expect Penn State to figure out how to lose this game, but I will take the points because I think they will be at a premium in this game. Ohio State should be better than they have shown this season. Unless there is a UGA-Clemson, UGA-Texas or Oregon awakening moment in this game for the Buckeyes I would continue to be concerned about the future.
Something's not right with Ohio State... something's always wrong with Penn State. Give me Penn State (+3.5) and the points.
Texas A&M (-3.5) at South Carolina | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The ultimate trap game. Aggies are coming off a massive win against LSU and are atop the SEC standings. Can they take that momentum to Carolina? At night? That Gamecock defensive line is no joke and they could make things difficult for the Aggie offense. Carolina has enough talent on offense to get the job done if they can play well at home. I think they can. Give me South Carolina (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Oh this is a fun one. I was all over LSU last week and the weeks preceding their fall against the Aggies. I think that Texas A&M’s win last week left me more concerned about LSU than confident about the Aggies. Why? LSU did not have a gameplan for backup QB Marcel Reed when they benched Conner Weigman. That is embarrassing considering Reed has played so much this season, but they were not ready for what was coming and momentum is a real thing in college football. Garrett Nussmeier and LSU crumbled. Simple as that.
South Carolina is a fun team. There really is not a should or shouldn't, but man the Gamecocks should have beaten both Alabama and LSU. We would be talking about them as a top-10 or 15 team if that was the case. A&M has good backs. A&M has a good front seven. You know what, so does South Carolina and they are going to be playing in the cockpit. Give me the Gamecocks (+3.5).
Dean’s Pick: I would be quite alert here if I'm A&M. This is a losable game, and the fact that the line is a field goal is a little jumpy for me. Carolina can win this game. Shane Beamer might have some magic up his sleeve for one game this season. Will it be this one? Doubt it, but I will grab South Carolina (+3.5) and the points at home.
Kentucky (+15.5) at Tennessee | SECN | 7:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: Nope. Not doing it. Tennessee should beat down Tennessee. Night game. Black jerseys. A terrific defense against a Kentucky offense that can't do much of anything. No reason why the Vols can’t come out with a big game. They should throttle the Cats. Tennessee (-15.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Kentucky did not have my vote to be the worst SEC team this year, but it might have my vote now. I will say this, I think Tennessee has some problems if it does not cover the spread here. This is a home game at night. You are supposed to be a contender. I have the Vols (-15.5).
Dean’s Pick: It feels like Kentucky has quit. I'm not overthinking this. Give me the Vols (-15.5) to cover.
Louisville (+11.5) at Clemson | ESPN | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Taking the Tigers here. Louisville hasn’t lost by 12 all year, but that defense scares me against a Clemson offense playing at a high level. Clemson’s the more complete team. They win this one convincingly at night in front of the home crowd. Clemson (-11.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I mulled over this a little bit in my head. I am leaning with Clemson (-11.5) because I do think the Tigers are the better team and this is one of their marquee games of the season. I am assuming the Clemson faithful will show out. Louisville gave Miami a tough fight a couple of weeks ago. I think this game could go down similarly but I think Clemson has more talent on defense and will be backed by a much better atmosphere.
Dean’s Pick: So the Taters are borderline feeling themselves after beating App State, NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake and Virginia. The combined records of those teams is 18-29. None of them have winning records. Clemson may be good, but they are not elite, and all you have to do to remember that is watch them play. I think Clemson is "probably" the best team in the ACC, but I think they have a tighter game than they would like this weekend at Memorial Stadium. Give me Louisville (+11.5) at that pile of points for a team that scores 37 points a game.
Pitt (+7.5) at SMU | ACCN | 8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I went back and forth with this one, but I’ll take SMU. I don’t like that half-point, but I think they’ll get the job done at home. MAssive game for the Ponies and I think they’ll come out with a big win. SMU (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I did not know Pitt was undefeated. Is that bad since I do this for a living? Pitt has not made enough noise for me, and I don’t think it will on Saturday night either. I will take the team that I think is better and is at home which is SMU (-7.5).
Dean’s Pick: I'm not certain I understand this line. Pitt is one of the better if not best teams in the ACC, and SMU has been pretty up and down this season. I know its on the road, but give me Pitt (+7.5).
Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan | CBS | 4:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Michigan stinks. The Ducks are rolling. I’m not overthinking this one. Give me Oregon with a massive road win against the Wolverines. The Ducks are clicking and they’ll have no problem with a bad Michigan team. Ducks (-14.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Until Oregon loses or starts to look iffy again like it did at the beginning of the season, it has earned the No. 1 next to its name. It is playing better than any other team right now. I will take Oregon (-14.5) with confidence.
Dean’s Pick: Oregon should have no fear going into this game. This Michigan team is not even close to what they've had over the last three seasons. This pick is as much about UM as it is about Oregon, but the combination of the two should tell you all you need to know - Michigan isn't in Oregon's universe. Give me Oregon (-14.5) to cover even with the hook, and it being on the road.
Duke (+20.5) at Miami | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Just too many points here. Duke’s a respectable team who should put up some type of a fight. They’ll lose the game, but their defense is good enough to make enough stops for the cover. Not expecting much of a home environment to help the Canes out. I think Duke keeps it closer than the experts think. Duke (+20.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Miami is so hard to read. I know it is going to trip up at some point. There is too much erratic throwing and decision making in Cam Ward’s game for the Hurricanes not to slip up eventually. That said, I am not on the Cam Ward train, nor will I probably ever be, but it is fun to shop for tickets. He is a heck of a talent. I am going with the Hurricanes (-20.5).
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take Duke (+20.5) and the points here - even with this game being on the road. That's a lot, a lot of points for a noon game in a half-empty stadium. Miami just played a rivalry game, and Duke isn't as bad as people want to think they are. Miami wins by a lot - just not three touchdowns.
Georgia (-16.5) vs Florida | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m liking Georgia’s changes more and more as the week goes on. A healthier Georgis defense should cause a ton of problems for new quarterback DJ Lagway. Expect Etienne to have a big game against his former team. This one could still be close at the half, but Georgia’s the better team and should roll in the second half. Dawgs win another one in Jacksonville. Georgia (-16.5).
Ryan’s Pick: You know, I am really not overthinking this. I don’t think there is that much to talk about. Georgia is significantly better than Florida, as it has been the last few years. This is another big line, as it has been the last few years. Georgia (-17.5) is going to cover, as it has the last few years.
Dean’s Pick: Give me the Dawgs (-16.5) to cover the line. I don't think this is an ideal matchup for a Florida team that isn't great stoping the run, and are rolling out DJ Lagway, who is talented, but has limited experience.
It "feels" like things are coming together for Georgia right now. Perhaps that was a one-game thing in Austin. Carson Beck, like most quarterbacks, needs a solid running back, and that could be in the process of happening - and right in time. Beck has been asked to do a lot, and we've seen that at times that can be taxing for him.
UGA has asked Beck to throw it on average 46 times in three of the last four games (TX, MSU and AL. That's A LOT of throws. In those games he's had all eight of his interceptions. I'm not anti-interception. That's part of playing quarterback. But when you are thrown that much you are asking the quarterback to do a lot. The top way to ask the signal caller to not do as much is to give the ball to the running back, and let them do their thing.
I expect that this game, and that's why I expect Georgia to win this game. Florida is playing better, but not "that" much better. Jacksonville can be a tough place to play when you know you are not the better team. Lately Georgia has been the significantly better team, and, frankly, they didn't play well in 2021 or 2022 during the game at times. 2023 was much more of a landslide.
This is asking a lot for a Florida program that is shooting for a 7-5 season, and a trip to a bowl game. Georgia - probably big.
Season ATS
Matt 35-41
Ryan 31-46
Dean 37-39