Who Will Win - Kirby Smart's UGA Football or the Texas Longhorns?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football head to Texas to take on the No. 1 Longhorns in another massive matchup for the Georgia Bulldogs this season. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue | FOX |8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Ducks will roll, but I don’t expect them to play with the same fire and energy this week after a massive win over the Buckeyes last week. Night game on the road. Even against a bad Purdue team, that’s asking a lot. Give me Purdue (+27.5).
Ryan’s Pick: The biggest reason why I am behind on picks this year is because I’ve been more bold with lines like these. Purdue is bad. Oregon is coming off of a huge win. It’s on a Friday night. Everything here points to Purdue covering. Give me the Ducks (-27.5).
Dean’s Pick: My suspicion is that even though the Ducks are the better team - and how - they've played an emotional game against Ohio State, and now they are being asked to travel to wherever Purdue is in Indiana to play a Friday night game. That alone, just finding Purdue, seems like asking a lot. Then there is covering a four-touchdown line. I'm not about it. Give me Purdue (+27.5) and the points.
Oklahoma State (-9) at BYU | ESPN |10:15 PM
Matt’s Pick: Keep the Coca-Cola and Dr. Pepper flowing on Friday night. It’s a party in Provo. The Cougars can play and the Pokes have looked really ugly at times this year. Cougars roll in style. BYU (-9).
Ryan’s Pick: The Cougars have been rolling late at night and on Fridays. I’ve been paying attention. I like BYU (-9) to cover up in Provo. Oklahoma State does not look the playoff contender some (not me) predicted it to be.
Dean’s Pick: Man, I would not want to play a game at BYU if I could help it. That place has always been pretty tough, but it is getting tougher because the Cougars are pretty good this season. They've always been physical. That's not a great matchup for a rather disappointing and pedestrian 2024 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have not scored over 20 in Big 12 play. Give me BYU (-9).
Michigan (-3) at Illinois | CBS |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This line confuses me a little. I think Illinois is better than Michigan. They’re a sound, well-coaches team. Three-point underdogs at home? Something’s off. Maybe I’m a big dummy. We’ll see on Saturday. But I’ll take Illinois and feel good about it right now. Illinois (+3).
Ryan’s Pick: Oooh, I feel good about this one. Illinois has some spunk. That’s right. Spunk. The Illini QB is fun to watch and Illinois already showed in prime time that it is here to compete. Michigan is a shell of what it has been. Illinois (+3) with confidence.
Dean’s Pick: Michigan really needs this game. We are getting a little too close to a lot of wins midway through the season with Ohio State and other still looming on the schedule. I don't like this at all for UM. A road fight against a not overly-talented Illinois team, but one that will fight you all sixty minutes. Give me the Fightin' Illini (+3) and them points.
Auburn (-4.5) at Missouri | ESPN |12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: At some point we’ll see Missouri play really well, right? Maybe? They’re better than Auburn and should take care of business. If they can’t, I don’t want to hear about Missouri the rest of the year. They won’t matter. Completely irrelevant. Dead. Big day for Luther Burden and a strong showing from the Missouri defense leads them to victory. Missouri (-4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Missouri, like a lot of SEC teams right now, is hard to get a read on. The thumping that A&M put on the Tigers was puzzling to me. Luckily, I think I do have a solid grasp on this Auburn team- Auburn is not good. I’ll take Mizzou (-4.5).
Dean’s Pick: Man, this could get ugly. Avert your eyes as the two worst Tigers in the SEC face off in Middle Earth. Who am I kidding? I will watch this game because I have no standards. Is Auburn fully or only half dead now? This could be a game where Auburn finds itself... or finds itself lost in middle Missouri. Give me Missouri (-4.5), but not because I am excited about it.
Notre Dame (-11) at Georgia Tech | ESPN |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Big one in Bobby-Dodd. The Irish are coming down to the “A”. They can play with the Irish. I don’t think they’ll win, but I’ll take those points. Those nerds will put the checkers down to show up and get as rowdy as they can for this one. The Irish win, but the Jackets cover. Jackets (+11).
Ryan’s Pick: Oh, I’m going with Georgia Tech (+11). I have been consistent in not loving what is going on up there in South Bend. I think that this is a really fun matchup. Bobby-Dodd is honestly a pretty cool place to watch a game at. The press seats are at least awesome. Haynes King and all of the backs are fun to watch. I am going with them, and the Jackets might win straight up.
***UPDATE: I am changing my pick to Notre Dame (-11) after learning that Haynes King is out for Georgia Tech***
Dean’s Pick: Tech is a good, solid team. The Irish have already taken their yearly bad loss, so that can't come from Tech. If the Jackets play with their usual fight this will be a four-quarter game. But I am going to take Norte Dame (-11) to win on the road, or whatever the Dome is for Tech these days.
LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas | ESPN |7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’ve been back and forth on this one. The Arkansas team isn’t terrible. The Tigers are bound for another big loss soon. They’re coming off a big home win against the Rebels and have to get up to play the Razorbacks on the road. It won’t be easy. I can absolutely see LSU fumbling this one away somehow. I don’t feel good about it, but I’ll take Arkansas (+2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Ugh. This is the game where dumb stuff will happen and it will lead to Arkansas winning or covering. How about LSU being a sneaky SEC contender at this point. A&M and Texas are the only other teams undefeated in the league at the moment. LSU is not very trustworthy, but I just like the Tigers this year. I think it is very possible that Garrett Nussmeier ends up being one of the first quarterbacks taken in the upcoming NFL draft. LSU has good weapons and a solid line. The defense is shaky and it is missing its best player. I am taking LSU (-2.5) anyway.
Dean’s Pick: LSU has all you need to be really good, but they are always in these knife fights they don't seem to belong in. Now they've got to travel to Fayetteville pretty much with the season on the line because of the loss to USC to start the season that should not have been a loss.
Give me the Hogs (+3) and the points at home.
Alabama (-3) at Tennessee | ABC |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’ll take the Tide to rebound. Neyland Stadium is loud, but anyone can go in there and win. Both teams are playing ugly football, but I have a feeling the Tide bounce back and get a giant win on the road. Tennessee is on a massive fraud alert. I’ll take Alabama (-3).
Ryan’s Pick: This is a tough one. I am going based on trust. I trust Tennessee less than I do Alabama. I don’t think there is any question that Neyland will hit the highest decibel rating on Saturday. The Vols have just looked kind of meh a lot of times. Tennessee should have blown out Oklahoma, but it didn’t. I don’t buy that Josh Heupel was just going easy on his alma mater. Nico Iamaleava is super talented, but he has not developed enough to carry Tennessee to a victory like this. Tennessee has the better defense, but Alabama has more explosion on offense. To put it this way, from Georgia’s perspective, Alabama is the scarier team to face. I am going with the Tide (-3).
Dean’s Pick: I'm not into either of these teams right now. But I am going to take Alabama (-3) simply because of the two teams playing bad football these last few games, Alabama is playing the better worse. But this is a tricky game. The loser is in very serious peril.
Georgia (+3.5) at Texas | ABC |7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Part of me really wants to take Georgia. They can absolutely win the game, and that line makes me want to jump on it, but I think Texas is playing better football right now. I think this will be a tight game until the very end, but I think the Horns are better this second. They’ve got the Dawgs at home, they’re healthier, and they look great overall. The Dawgs will score, but I think Texas will make just enough plays in the end to hold them off and win by four. Texas (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I am like Matt here. There is a reason to take Georgia. It is completely true that Texas is untested and that Georgia is by far the best team that the Longhorns will have faced. Kirby Smart is the best coach in the country. Georgia has been in these big moments far more than Texas recently. Georgia has been tested.
But, for the first time since I have been doing this with Dawg Post, I am predicting that Georgia is going to lose on Saturday. Texas has looked so complete, even if the teams it has played have not been that good. The numbers are staggering to look at. Georgia has just been so inconsistent this season. It is hard to trust right now. I think the Longhorns (-3.5) win by about 7-10 points. Even if it happens, Georgia’s season is not over.
Dean’s Pick: I'll take Texas (-3.5) to cover this line, but I have to say that I am seeing this line at 5 or 5.5 right now, and that's far too high for me. Sometimes momentum can get built up in lines, and things start getting irrationally exuberant.
Georgia can certainly win this game. I wouldn't at all be surprised if they did. But Texas is playing at home. They have some really good skill players. They are supposed to be the best team in the country. If all of those things are true, and you are playing a UGA team that's not close to hitting on all cylinders you win.
But Texas has been sloppy, too, if you watch their games. There has been back and forth at quarterback (they are both good). They are gettable. I am curious if Kirby Smart can take a team that's not the better team and win. He's not been in that position at lot. But he has played a lot of top-five games, and he's won all but one of them against teams that weren't Alabama.
Will that happen this Saturday night?
Season ATS
Matt 32-28
Ryan 24-37
Dean 32-28
**Ryan demands a recount**