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Georgia Football

Dawg Post's Weekend Picks for UGA Football and the Rest of College Football Are In

November 30, 2023

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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 1 UGA football are headed back to Atlanta to take on Nick Saban and his Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday afternoon in the 2023 SEC Championship Game. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.

No. 5 Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington | ABC |8:00 PM, Friday

Matt’s Pick: Man, I like Oregon in this game, but that might be too many points for me. Eh, nevermind. Give me Oregon. They’re playing great football and have been looking forward to this rematch. Laning will have his guys ready, and Bo Nix has a big game on a giant stage. Oregon rolls and makes the playoffs. Oregon (-9.5).

Ryan’s Pick: I have been looking forward to this game since the last matchup, and there is so much on the line. A spot to the playoff, the Heisman trophy and the bookend of the PAC 12 all sit in the hands of this game. 

I was so upset when I saw this line because it was right around where I didn’t want it to be. I do think Oregon is a better team. The Ducks might be No. 2. That is how they are playing right now anyways. I think Washington will hang in there for a really long time. I am calling a late cover from Oregon (-9.5) with a final of 41-31.

Dean’s Pick: I'm going with the Ducks here. It's pretty clear they are the better team. Oregon shouldn't have lost earlier this season to UW, but they did. That's my pause here. Oregon has blown a lot of folks out, but they've had some games that were a little tighter than I would have liked against USC and Texas Tech. Oregon has outclassed pretty much everyone else. I am expecting Oregon (-9.5) to come out with it all on the line to play well. Give me the Ducks.

No. 19 Oklahoma State (+14) vs. No. 7 Texas | ABC |12:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: Texas is looking good, but it looks like they still need a lot of help getting into the playoffs. They need an impressive victory if it’s even possible, and I they make it happen against the Pokes. Oklahoma State’s defense has been awful recently. Texas should score at least 40 in this game. Horns (-14).

Ryan’s Pick: Texas is going to need help to get into the top-4. One thing that would help them is by blowing out Oklahoma State while everyone is watching you at noon. I think Texas (-14) will step up to the plate and deliver a big win. I think it will, unfortunately for them, be too little too late with how crowded the top is right now and with how I think the committee thinks. 

Dean’s Pick: I think Texas wins this game, and puts pressure on Florida State to do the same later on Saturday. Texas is clearly better than this all over the place Oklahoma State squad that has a quick-trigger head coach that is all about Big 12 pride. I think that's going to be enough to allow the Cowboys to keep it close and put the pressure on the Longhorns. Give me the Cowboys (+14) and the two touchdowns as we shut down the Big 12 as we knew it.

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No. 25 SMU (+4) at No. 17 Tulane | ABC |4:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: Preston Stone is out for the season, so I’ll take Tulane at home to cover. SMU is playing better football, but I think the new QB might struggle in this one. Ugly game in the end, but I’ll take Tulane (-4).

Ryan’s Pick: I think SMU is probably the better team. I like taking the better team, especially when they are getting points. I’ll go with SMU (+4).

Dean’s Pick: This is a tough as for the Ponies as they make the trip to the next state to play a conference title game at Tulane. The Green Wave have lost once - to No. 11 Ole Miss. That'a all I need to know. Give me Tulane (-4). I'll see you at The Boot before and certainly after the game.

No. 18 Iowa (+23.5) vs. No. 2 Michigan | FOX |8:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: That’s a lot of points. This ones tough. Still, Iowa might get shut out. Michigan’s coming off an emotional win, so they could take a step back, but this is a team that looks locked in. Too many weapons on offense. If they get into the 30s, they should be able to cover. Give me Michigan (-23.5).

Ryan’s Pick: That is too many points for a team that is only averaging 27 points against the other top defenses. I’ll gladly take Iowa (+23.5). I think they can get on the board once or twice, which will be enough for a cover. I know Iowa’s schedule is not tough. The BIG has been concerningly top heavy. Michigan has not been explosive against great defenses.

Dean’s Pick: This will be a horrible football game - horribly played, and likely with a horrible outcome for the Iowa Hawkeyes. But I do like the way Iowa (+23.5) punts, so give me the Hawkeyes, and get out of my face. 

No. 15 Louisville (+2.5) vs. No. 4 Florida State | ABC |8:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: At first I talked myself into Florida State. Now I’m backing off. This Louisville team wasn’t focused on Kentucky. This is the game they’ve been mentally preparing for. They’re going to be locked in on Florida State and give them a real battle. But, you know what, nope. Im back on Florida State. Close win, and I think they win it on the last drive. Chaos, but the Noles surive another one. Florida State (-2.5).

Ryan’s Pick: I’ve been saying all year that Florida State is going to stumble its way to 13-0 and make the College Football Playoff. I have been saying that because I think that is what is going to happen and what I think the committee will do, but real ball watchers know the Seminoles are not one of the four best teams. I was all over Louisville a few weeks ago too saying they were the worst one-loss team. I’d say the Cardinals and Iowa could fight it out for the worst two-loss team. Florida State (-2.5).

Dean’s Pick: It has been nearly a decade since Florida State has been in this position. And yet, the Noles are here without their starting signal caller. Life isn't fair - football injuries certainly are not. Florida State is noticeably better than UL across the board. I think that matters. Give me the Noles (-2.5) with it all on the line for that program. 

Auburn’s Nightmare (+10) at No. 20 Liberty | CBSSN |7:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: Liberty’s playing great football, and I think they’ll win the game, but I think the Aggies will give them a real fight. New Mexico State can play, and I think they’re looking for revenge. They may not get it, but they’ll keep it close. New Mexico State (+10).

Ryan’s Pick: I am going against my usual train of thought here by saying Liberty (-10) is going to beat a really good team twice in a season. It is at home, and the Flames have taken care of business since week one. Miracles really do happen in Jordan-Hare Stadium, and New Mexico State beating Auburn there might not have been a mirical, but their magic won’t extend over here. 

Dean’s Pick: Auburn's (second-worse) Nightmare was losing to New Mexico State on the penultimate weekend of the year. And yet things can always get worse. Always. I'm not going to write more about this game than I should. Liberty is in the middle of nowhere. No thanks. Give me the Aggies (+10) and the points. 

No. 8 Alabama (+5) vs No. 1 Georgia| CBS |4:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: The biggest game that matters this weekend. I’m expecting Kirby Smart’s Dawgs to be locked and loaded for this one. In Atlanta. A familar game. A familiar setting. I think the defensive staff with have a creative game-plan to contain Jalen Milroe. Offensively, Carson Beck’s weapons will be back, and they could have a big game. Georgia’s the better, deeper team, and they’re going to prove it again on Saturday. Georgia (-5).

Ryan’s Pick: I think Georgia (-5) is going to win this game for the same reason I have thought they were going to win the last 40+ games. Kirby Smart has led the best team in the country out on that field for three years. This game’s stakes go beyond a trip to the playoff. The most recent era of college football is shifting and the Dawgs have been taking over. Alabama has had Georgia's number in this game. 

On the field, I trust Georgia to have a complete game more than I trust Alabama to. It will take Alabama’s best game of the season to beat Georgia.

Dean’s Pick: I wrote about this game a lot (more than 3,000 words) over on Final Feelings. You should check that diatribe out. That said, I've got Georgia (-5) in this one. Alabama is a heck of a program (UGA is, too), but the Dawgs are the better team right now. 

Needless to say this is a monumental game with all usual superlatives on the line. But how many more times are we going to get Nick and Kirby playing in these sorts of situations? If I had to bet (trademark Michigan - 2023) it won't be as many as we've seen in the past. 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2021... three of those five games were classics - like... folks will remember forever classics. 

How many times is that going to happen in the future? I don't see this one as a classic. I see the Dawgs getting a solid win over the team that might be the biggest thing in their way to hoisting another banner. 

Season ATS

Matt 43-58-4

Ryan 50-51-4

Dean 50-51-4

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