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Georgia Football

Killing the King of College Football?

January 28, 2023
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ATHENS - The Georgia Bulldogs‘ second national championship in as many years is a little over 3 weeks in the rear view mirror. The euphoria has subsided…some.

We’ve seen players leave for other scenic destinations and have experienced unspeakable tragedy and loss in the program and fan base. With the 2023 recruiting class nearing its conclusion it’s appropriate now to look at the potential conference and national title contenders prior to the start of spring practice. There is still much water to go under the bridge before the start of the 2023 season but framing the known challengers to Georgia’s perch can at least start to put the campaign into some sort of focus.

As a kid, I played the game King of the Mountain with my friends. We’d find a dirt mound somewhere and try to knock each other off all day. I’d come home dirty and spent. But my mother’s admonishments were easier to take when I ended the day as the king. Right now, Kirby Smart is the King of the Mountain. Back-to-back championships will do that for you. Many will try to knock him, and the Dawgs, off that mountain. Conference opponents as well as teams across the nation will relish the opportunity to be the one to knock the king off the mountain.

First, let’s look at the Southeastern Conference’s West Division. For years, the West has been the stronger of the two conference divisions. Coming into 2023, I don’t know that to be the case anymore. Allow me to explain. 

The main challengers to UGA from the West are simply Alabama and LSU. More on each of them shortly. Ole Miss hasn’t been able to win consistently into November, and guess who comes to visit Sanford Stadium in November? That’s right, the Lane Train. Until Ole Miss can win big games in November, they are still a second tier program. Auburn with the sanctimonious Hugh Freeze at the helm may prove to be dangerous at some point, but lackluster recruiting and the general dysfunction on The Plains won’t be easy to overcome. Yet. Speaking of dysfunction…have you gazed in the direction of College Station lately? Last year’s generational recruiting class has disintegrated, and to “save” the program the soft-spoken Jimbo Fisher brought in Bobby Petrino as his offensive coordinator. What could possibly go wrong there? At best the Aggies are an 8-4 program. Lastly, Mississippi State is quite the unknown and the loss of Mike Leach will be felt. It may take a season or two for Zach Arnett to fully put his stamp on that program.



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So, on to Alabama. I’m not ready to pronounce the Tide as dead. I think that would be foolhardy. Nick Saban has brought in yet another stellar recruiting class and still has a talented roster remaining from last season. However, he’s lost both coordinators in this offseason (for the 5th time!) as well as his two star players in Bryce Young and Will Anderson. While many tried to focus on the two close losses (LSU and UT), there were also close calls against Texas, the Aggies, and Ole Miss for a total of 5 that could have gone into the “L” column. This isn’t the Alabama of old. The 2022 season wasn’t an aberration. 2021 saw the Tide having to win the SEC championship in order to make the College Football Playoff after a loss to Texas A&M and closer-than-should-have-been wins at Florida, Arkansas and Auburn.  Can the Tide regain their championship swagger from seasons past? Or will it just be more excuses?

LSU had an entertaining and surprising 2022 season, ending with a dominating bowl win against Big 10 runner up Purdue. Huge wins against Bama and Ole Miss buoyed a program that lost in heartbreaking fashion to Florida State and embarrassingly against Tennessee. Did Brian Kelly’s first season in the bayou represent a harbinger of things to come? The Tigers currently have the 5th ranked recruiting class by 24/7 Sports and have also done well in the transfer portal. They return a very good quarterback in Jadon Daniels along with good skill players. Work needs to be done on both the offensive and defensive lines, but they also return Harold Perkins who, as a true freshman, wrecked several games for the opponent. While he didn’t impact the SEC Championship Game at all, he’s definitely a player to watch in a resurgent program. 

Over to the East, where them Dawgs is Hell. Vanderbilt gets a mention here only because they beat Florida last season (I’m still giggling over that one). Mizzou played their best game of the season against UGA last October, almost wrecking a perfect season. But this program is light years away from being consistently competitive. The raging 5 Alarm Inferno in Gainesville is comical and almost pathetic at the same time. So, yeah, while Gator fans will squawk on social media, Florida is no closer to competing with Georgia than they were the day they fired Dan Mullen. In fact, this program is probably further away. Kentucky is a fun program to watch, but losing a potential first round quarterback (hard to type that after watching him for two seasons) without a stocked cupboard will affect the Wildcats more than any other program. And I’ll believe South Carolina is a threat when I see it. Two wins over very overrated programs at the end of the 2022 season were cute. But the second coming of Beamer Ball in college football isn’t imminent.



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That leaves Tennessee. Let’s look a little deeper into the program that will definitely be rolling off the pundits’ tongues all off season as a potential challenger to Georgia. A quick review of the 2022 season shows a couple of things. First, they needed a couple of minor miracles to be ranked #1 in the first CFP rankings. The Vols had to go to overtime to beat a Pitt team on its third string quarterback. Barely beat Florida, and in doing so allowed a unicorn in Anthony Richardson to have the game of his life. The Vols survived at home against Bama after the Tide committed 17 (SEVEN-FREAKING-TEEN!!!) penalties and dropped a sure third down conversion that would have put Bama in position to win the game. We know what they did on November 5 in Sanford Stadium. The 25-point loss to South Carolina was well after the school published a season in review book before the season was over. And Vol fans brought it. Wow. But the game that has Vol fans crowing is the Orange Bowl win against a similarly-colored Clemson squad. I believe 31-14 victory is a bit of a red herring, though. A Clemson offense that still struggled to score this season somehow put up 484 yards of offense, even after benching their starting quarterback. The kicker missed 3 field goals and Clemson turned the ball over twice. Still, the Vols won. UT will lose a great quarterback and a couple of very talented receivers along with defensive losses from a not-very-good defense. While the Vols rank 8th in the 24/7 Sports recruiting rankings, the talent gap between the #2 team (UGA) and the Vols is significant. The 2023 contest will be played in Knoxville, the Vols will have to bring more to the party than a hyper-fast offense and marginally accurate quarterback. 

Shifting focus to the national level, the usual suspects are still there but not without numerous questions. Ohio State loses some very talented skill players who gave UGA fits. CJ Stroud will be a large hole to fill. Also, the questions surrounding Ryan Day continue to grow. Can he actually win a big game? Michigan saw its coach flirt with the NFL again, be accused of program improprieties, and fire their co-offensive coordinator after being accused of some computer malfeasance. Fun times in the Big House. USC’s defense still can’t stop anyone as their loss in the Cotton Bowl to Tulane proved. Who saw that coming? And I think USC just got scored on again. I think Dan Lanning still needs another couple of recruiting classes to get the Ducks consistently relevant again. Back east, Clemson will be highly overrated again as the Dabo magic and schtick is wearing thin. 

So, who could catch lightning in a bottle and be 2023’s version of TCU? I think there are a couple of teams to watch. First is Florida State. The Seminoles seemed to have gained a better footing under Mike Norvell and have recruited well. Can the ‘Noles perform consistently enough to really challenge Clemson for conference supremacy? Out west, Washington had a resurgent year in 2022 under Kalen DeBoer and brings back Michael Pennix at quarterback. They also get to play both Oregon and Utah at home in 2023, but face USC in LA. Will 2023 be the season that the PAC 12 doesn’t commit fratricide? 

Finally, to the Dawgs. Going back-to-back is hard. It’s only been done three times this century. A three-peat has only been accomplished once. 1934-36 by Minnesota. So, it’s been a minute. The 2023 schedule for UGA is Charmin-soft, although not totally by design (thanks SEC). Home games against South Carolina and Ole Miss (and to a degree, Kentucky) represent the “toughest” home games. Road games against Auburn (tough place to play) and Tennessee are the only true away tilts that should cause the Dawgs to strain. Georgia brings back a very talented roster of starters and key backups, especially on defense. Questions about the starting quarterback and offensive line will get closer to answers during and after the spring practice session. With a talented but not-without-question roster, the early season games against the “who cares” will help the Dawgs solidify the key players and propel the squad towards the late-season tougher games against the Rebels and Vols for reasons mentioned above.

With all that said, I do not believe the most dangerous challenger in this King of the Mountain game lies on the schedule. Here’s why….there’s a common saying in wealth management that “The first generation makes the money, the second generation builds on it, and then the third generation blows it”. The 2021 and 22 Dawgs found motivation and drive in various places, whether real or manufactured. The first championship team made the money, and the second championship team built on that money, so to speak, by going back-to-back and undefeated. So, while there are multiple contestants for the 2023 version of King of the Mountain the greatest threat to Georgia’s historic march is entitlement – we’ve heard Kirby say this multiple times. While the games will be played on the field, the conditions for success in 2023 are being set now. The process that Kirby and his staff will implement must be more different this season than in seasons past to get after the entitlement malaise that is right there, front and center, as the greatest threat to UGA’s continued march to history. While there will be at least 12 opponents, and hopefully 15, the most likely cause of a tumble off the top of the mountain comes from the current king and his army alone.

 
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