Dawg Post's Five for Friday: Stirring Our Cocktails Before the Big Party
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are on the way to play their biggest rivals - the Florida Gators.
1. Why are the Dawgs Such Huge Favorites?
Its the Cocktail Party people! Another edition of one of the great rivalries in this sport - Georgia and Florida tee it up by the St. Johns. Georgia comes into the game as the No. 1 team in the nation, and as a three-score favorite to beat the Gators.
The line, which is the largest in the history of the series, is the seventh consecutive game in which the Dawgs have been favored by over 20 points. That includes two road SEC games. Georgia leads the SEC in total defense (247 ypg), scoring defense (9.1 ppg) and is No. 2 behind the Vols in total offense (527 ypg) and is No. 3 in scoring offense behind the Vols and Tide.
Florida, which limps into Jacksonville with a 4-3 record, has only been a 20-plus point underdog twice in program history, and neither game ended pretty for the Gators. In 2016, Florida was made a 24-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama beat the Gators 54-16. In 2013, a horrid Florida team was a 28.5-point underdog to the Noles at home. They lost to FSU by 30.
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2a. What to watch for (UGA edition)
If Florida is going to have a chance in this game, the Gators are going to have to improve on third down defense. UF comes into the game as the 130th team in the country in that category. Only pitiful Colorado is worse than the Gators.
Florida is allowing conversions to first down on 53% of third down plays. For reference, Georiga allows just under 30% conversions in when their defense faces third down.
The flip side is even more troubling for the Gators. First, Florida has actually gotten worse at this over the last two games. Secondly, perhaps way worse, Georgia is one of the top offenses in the country when it comes to third down conversions - 52% conversion rate.
Stetson Bennett is 32 of 45 on third down in 2022 - that’s 71.1%. In third and short to medium, Bennett is 24 of 30, or 80%.
2b. What to watch for (non-UGA edition)
There are two games that jump on the page from the start - Ohio State at Penn Overrated. The Buckeyes are 15-point favorites on the road, which tells you just what to think of the Overrated Lions, and their wack job, likes-to-fight guy coach.
Still, I’m old enough to remember that OSU has a hard time getting out of Happy Valley alive at times. Consider, OSU had a one-point win in 2018; it lost in 2016; it won by a touchdown in 2014. It isn’t easy for them there.
Then there’s the Kentucky-Tennessee game in primetime. This is a very curious game. I think Kentucky is going to be a very tough out for the Vols. This is going to depend on who gets to play their game. Kentucky, make no mistakes, is tough as nails. They just don’t have the players Tennessee has.
But they showed against State a few weeks ago that they can stop a pass-happy team. I like the Cats (+12.5) ATS here.
3. Quote of the week:
Georgia and Florida released a statement regarding the future of the Cocktail Party:
“The annual game between our two universities is an important tradition. At this time, both programs are focused on our current seasons,” the statement read. "Typically both schools begin conversations regarding future games in the series as the last contracted game nears. We anticipate following that timeline. When those discussions take place, we will consider a multitude of factors including tradition, finances, future SEC scheduling models with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, and what is best for both schools’ football programs overall.”
Not sure what, if anything, to make of that statement.
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4. Thursday Night Rundown:
NC State and Virginia Tech were locked into a defensive slugfest that suddenly opened up into a fun game in the third quarter. Thomas Brady and the Tompa Bay Bucs hosted the Ravens, as Tom and company tried to get rolling for the first time this season.
Meanwhile, former Gator coach Dan Mullen went froward with this as his top four heading into the final weekend before the College Football Playoff Committee releases its first rankings of the year:
1. Tennessee
2. UGA
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Lock of the week
I’m really tempted to take Ohio State (-15.5) at Penn State, or Wake (-3.5) at Louisville. But I think doing a back-to-back with Wake is dangerous. I also know enough about Ohio State going to Penn State to stay away from that one. But my gut tells me those are games where both those teams should cover.
I actually don’t think taking the Dawgs (-22.5) is going out on a limb - Georgia is way, way better than the Gators.
But I’m going to be dumb enough to take the Cocks (-3.5) at home against Missouri. Now, Missouri has a pretty good defense. And having watched Carolina last week at home against A&M, I realize they are not polished. But they are “hot” (if that’s the right word?), and playing over in Cootlumbia... tha’ts an adventure. The Chickens make a lot of mistakes - but not as many as TAMU did. But they stick in there, and have been good enough lately to overcome Spencer Rattler’s insistence to not stay in the pocket. If Rattler plays well our fine-feathered friends will win going away. I'm just not sure when he's played well this year.
All that said, Missouri hasn’t scored more than 17 on the road this season. They have not won on the road this season. That the Tigers managed only a three-point win over Vandy a week ago in Middle Earth… that means things are not going great over there.
The line has moved from Carolina being a 5.5-point favorite to only 3.5. That’s pretty good value in my book. Take the two free points, and worry less about the half point you might sweat in the fourth quarter if the Coots are up ten, and Missouri is driving.
I like the Cocks here in the lock of the week.