Final Feelings: Must-Read Before Georgia-Missouri
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Matt’s Final Feelings
It’s Final Feelings time, and it looks like Georgia will actually play Missouri this time.
It’s going to be cold. But that should be just fine for Kirby Smart and Georgia’s offense. The Tigers are actually playing half-way decent football right now, at least offensively, and haven’t lost a game since their 41-17 loss to the Gators on Halloween.
The Tiger offense can move the football, and they should be able to complete some passes against Georgia’s defense, but I don’t see them running the football much on the Dawgs. Senior running back Larry Roundtree III is coming off a big 185-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Hogs but Georgia’s front seven should be up to the task of stopping him once again.
The Razorbacks ran for 292 yards and four touchdowns last week against Missouri. If Arkansas can run that well against the Tigers, the Bulldogs might not have to throw a pass all game. Georgia’s backs looked great against South Carolina’s terrible defense, and they should see a ton of open holes to run through again this weekend.
Georgia doesn’t need to get cute. Let J.T Daniels throw it around here and there and take some shots deep, but Georgia needs to pound the rock and just run through Missouri’s defense until they wave the white flag. Score early, build a nice lead at the half, and then run all over them in the 2nd half. That’s what Coach DeBray would do.
Now onto recruiting. The 2021 class didn’t start the way Georgia fans were hoping, but it will likely end the same way it does every year: that’s with Kirby Smart and Georgia winning Signing Day once again. Of course, Georgia needs to eventually win a national title sooner than later. But with the way Kirby and his staff recruits - especially in closing time - the Bulldogs will always have the talent on the roster to compete with any team in the country.
Even with two big losses in the regular season, Kirby and his staff once again have momentum with some of their top targets in the week leading up to Signing Day.
The big names to keep an eye on are 4-star RB Donovan Edwards, 5-star DL Maason Smith and 4-star LB Xavian Sorey. There could always be a last-minute offer to somewhere if they feel like they aren’t going to sign one of their final targets, but right now those are the three names to know the most on Wednesday.
Dawg Post confirmed that 19 of Georgia’s 20 commitments plan to sign with Georgia on Wednesday. Of those 19, 15 of them plan to enroll early next month. That’s great for the freshman who get to start learning and get a head start by going through spring practice.
Speaking of spring practice, I really hope everything goes back to normal in 2021. I miss Sanford Stadium. I miss covering Georgia football Between the Hedges. I miss comparing stadiums and press boxes. I miss the completely average but sometimes decent food the media gets on gamedays. I don’t miss dragging heavy camera equipment everywhere and breaking a sweat before I get into the stadium, but that’s about the only thing I don’t like about my job.
I miss it all. There’s nothing better than the atmosphere in Athens on a gameday in the fall. I’m just ready for things to get back to normal.
Now onto Christmas.
Is it bad that one of the things I want most is a football? I have to have a football in the house. Something to spin and throw around by myself when watching a ballgame or TV show. If I’m listening to the fiancé about basically anything, I’m tossing a football around and nodding my head. It’s just something to do.
The one I’ve got now. I’ve had since high school. It’s old and beaten up. It’s just time to accept it and move on. So that’s what I want for Christmas. I also need a new blazer and maybe a driver that will fix my swing. And golf balls. Lots of golf balls.
But most of my gifts will be clothes, and I’m totally cool with it. My fiancé is slowly getting rid of clothes I’ve had for years and replacing them with nicer clothes. It’s great. I’ll spend money on food and alcohol all day long, but I’ve always had trouble buying clothes for myself. I just hate it. Luckily, she has no problem cleaning up my wardrobe and now I’m as fly as ever.
In other news, I think I’m going to start the Sopranos. I’ve always thought about doing it, but the fact that it’s such a long show made me decide not to finally it. Breaking Bad might be the best show of all-time, but I know people LOVE the Sopranos. So I might start that next week after Georgia’s big Signing Day on Wednesday. 
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Dylan’s Final Feelings
I’m back and forth on this game. On gut reaction, I say that Georgia should win this game, and they should win it easily. But then you look at Missouri’s last few games and wonder, well, maybe it won’t be soooo easy for the Dawgs.
The hypothesis I’ve come to is that it will be both (how creative, I know). I think this could be a tight game in the first half. I can see Georgia getting on the board after a long, ground-and-pound drive, but then giving up a quick touchdown to Missouri. Basically, I think it will be a one-score game going into the half.
The thing is though, there’s no way Missouri’s offense will be able to have sustained success all game. Their quarterback, Connor Bazelak, has thrown nearly five times as many passes as J.T. Daniels—he has one fewer touchdown than Daniels.
That is alarming, especially when you’re going against a defense that prides itself on stopping the run. Bazelak is going to have to be able to sling the ball this game to be in ear-shot of winning. So far this season, he hasn’t shown he can do that.
In the third quarter, in typical Kirby and Georgia fashion, I think the Dawgs will begin to pull away and eventually make it a three-score game. Give me UGA to win 31-10.
As. for. The. Horns.
The news is in—Urban Meyer is NOT coming to Austin. CRAZY! Call me a Texas insider, because I’ve been saying this for months now to my delusional Texas friends. Some were certain; a lot were overly optimistic; none of them were realistic. This was a pipedream - a longshot - and it didn’t pan out. The saddest part is, it might save Tom Herman’s job.
So cheers to an 8-4 Texas… wait, next year will be a quarterback transition… Cheers to a 6-6 Texas team and another year with Tom Herman!
Lastly, an update on my old neighbor’s paraplegic cat…
She’s currently living in New York, where she has been experiencing the cold for the first time in a long time. She prefers to hang out indoors now by the fire (but she has to wear a diaper inside, which she hates). That being said, she is a huge fan of the snow. Her owner said she “has been darting around in the snow.” I’m not sure what darting around means in this cat’s life, but it sounds like she’s living her best life.
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Dean’s Final Feelings
Just watching Missouri over the last few games it is clear they are improving here at the end of the year. This is a team that suffered a lopsided 23-point loss to Tennessee at the start of the year. Missouri’s shocking win over LSU doesn’t look so shocking any more.
Missouri is a solid team with some good parts - including freshman QB Connor Bazelak. They use him a lot - particularly lately. Bazelak has attempted at least 30 throw in the last six games. The Tigers are 5-1 in those contests. Most of those balls are not heavy-hitter balls.
What I mean by that is that those passes are typically not big balls. He’s averaging about 11 yards a completion… compare that to JT Daniels (14 yards a completion) or Mac Jones (16 yards a completion) and you see what I mean.
One thing to keep in mind about Bazelak is that he doesn’t do much dumb stuff. He’s played in eight games this fall and only thrown two picks. One thing I think Missouri would love to improve on is scoring after they move the ball. The Tigers are the No. 33 total offense in terms of yards, but only No. 72 in points scored.
So this is going to be a matter of controlling things up front. Missouri doesn’t make a habit of big plays necessarily, but they’ve played really well offensively the last two games. How they didn’t lose to Arkansas, down 14 in the 4th and then down a point with only 43 seconds left, speaks to their no-quit attitude. This was a team that was blown out in three of their first five games.
Missouri’s rally, as it were, as this season as come on shows they are dangerous right now. Then again, they’ve not faced someone the caliber of Alabama, Florida or Georgia since October. So it will be hard to know totally what to expect from them as a team.
The fact of the matter is that Georgia should win this game - no matter the travel, weather or time of year. Missouri’s defense is bad. They’ve allowed 35 points or more five times in only eight games. Only Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt failed to hit the 35-point mark against Missouri.
The Tigers are “particularly” bad when teams get into the red zone. 93% of the time if you get to the red zone against Missouri you score. In other words, only twice this season have teams failed to score once hitting that area of the field. Half of the times folks hit the red zone they score touchdowns (UGA, by the way, has not prevented a scoring chance by the opposition this season once they have gotten into the red zone. But UGA has only allowed five TDs from the red zone, and only allowed 17 total trips to the red zone this season).
So that’s a big, flashing red light for the Tigers with a revamped UGA offense that’s changed QBs and scored 31 and 45 in back-to-back games. Pick whichever problem you want to have with the Missouri defense, but the Tigers allowed 292 yards rushing last week. That’s eye opening.
Perhaps Mizzou will redeem themselves this weekend, but they’ve been susceptible to giving up big day through the air (Alabama, 303; LSU, 430; Florida, 345) or on the ground (Tennessee, 232; Arkansas 292). The last two games have shown that UGA can either throw or pass to a big day. We’ve not really been able to say that before the last two weeks.
Typically UGA has pounded teams with the run game (Auburn, 202; Tennessee, 193; Kentucky, 215; South Carolina, 332) and used the pass as an accessory. Consider that UGA had thrown thrown nine total TDs in six games; it has now thrown six TDs in two games.
How UGA will respond to the cold could be another question, but that could be one for Missouri as well. If there is more weather - meaning snow - I’m not sure that gives Missouri an advantage necessarily. It’s not like it is common for the Tigers to actually play in snow. They might be around it more often - actually I am certain they are around it more often - but it has not been common for this team in particular to play in the snow.
Missouri is 1-2 in games 40 degrees or colder since 2016 - and one of those games was in Athens. Tennessee topped the Tigers 24-20 last year in Columbia when it was 39; Georgia beat Missouri 27-0 last year Between the Hedges when it was 40; and the Tigers took out Vandy 33-28 in 2018 during a game that was 28 degrees.
28 degrees. I believe I would not be OK with that. I remember quite clearly the 2014 Auburn game in Athens when No. 15 UGA beat No. 9 Auburn 34-7 while it was 38 outside. That’s the coldest game I can remember being on the field for. Later that year in Charlotte No. 13 UGA beat No. 20 Louisville 37-14 while it was 39 degrees. That was a brutal night.
But the thing to remember about both of those games is that UGA’s running backs carried the load in both games. Skill players don’t tend to play well in the cold, and if you can run it is easier to run in the cold.
Long story short - no matter the temperature - Georgia should win unless some really odd stuff happens. UGA is something like a two-touchdown favorite to win the game. That gives you somewhere around an 83% chance to win the game. There are a few games hovering around that number this week:
Coastal Carolina (-13.5) at Troy
Utah State (+13.5) at Colorado State
Georgia (-13.5) at Missouri
Tennessee (15) at Vandy
Michigan State (+14.5) at Penn State
Illinois (+14.5) at Northwestern
I don’t know “which” of those favorites is most likely to lose, but I would be pretty shocked to see the Vols lose this weekend. Utah State is horrible. I will be paying attention to Coastal this weekend as well. Michigan State-Penn State… that seems like a game I’d be a little jumpy about. I wouldn’t trust either of them. Illinois is bad. I don’t see them sticking with the Wildcats for long.
I do want to go over some of the bowl situations for the year. For Georgia things are pretty simple, in fact. If Georgia wins at Missouri, which is the most difficult game left in the season, and could be the only game left in the season, it will play in a New Year’s Six Bowl.
The Bulldogs won’t play in the Orange Bowl as that game will have the SEC represented by either A&M or the Gators (now, if one of those two doesn’t win their final regular season game that changes things, but that’s pretty unlikley).
Again, unless Florida somehow hops A&M to be in position to play in the Orange for a second season in a row, A&M will be mandated to play in that bowl game. The bowls can horse trade all they want, but A&M is the team in position to go to the Orange Bowl if nothing changes.
The Gators simply have to beat LSU this weekend to secure a NY6 game, but I’m not 100% sure where they would land. Like UGA, the Gators wouldn’t be assigned to any particular NY6 bowl game. That means they could play in either the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta.
Georgia to the Peach makes a ton of sense from a geography stand point, but sending Florida further out west might not make a ton of sense, either. Either way both teams will travel. The question is how far.
To set it up:
There are four NY6 games - meaning there are eight total spots in those games. Five of those eight spots are restricted and are already taken up. That leaves three teams who will get at-large bids.
The Orange is restricted to the top SEC or Big Ten team vs. the top ACC team available. The Peach, Cotton and Fiesta will have to eat up the champions of the Big 12 and Pac 12 as well as the top-ranked Group of Six, which is Cincinnati right now.
The game to watch this weekend is Miami-UNC. UNC is ranked No. 17 - they would jump up in front of Miami. But if Miami gets a win they would stay in the top 10, and could possibly jump UGA and perhaps Cincinnati.
But what could screw things up, if you want to put it that way, is if Clemson loses to Notre Dame in the ACC title game. That would knock Miami (or UNC) out of the Orange, where the Tigers would then take on Florida (should the Gators lose to Alabama). Things could get real interesting if Ohio State were to be upset in the Big Ten title game. Then the Buckeyes, not an SEC school, would play in the Orange against an ACC school.
“If” Clemson gets beat that means Miami drops out of the Orange and eats up one of the three spots that are out there.
Again,
5. A&M - Orange
6. Gators - NY6 at-large
7. Iowa State - either Big 12 champ or Oklahoma, but not both
8. Cincinnati - Highest-ranked Group of 5
9. UGA - NY6 at-large
10. Miami - Orange
11. Oklahoma - either Big 12 champ or Iowa State, but not both
12. Indiana - NY6 at-large
15. USC - Pac 12 champ or Colorado, but not both
21. Colorado - Pac 12 champ or USC, but not both
Those are the teams - save the Big 12 and Pac 12 situations - that would get in.
Coastal Carolina could get in by winning out (not the easiest thing to pull off), AND having someone in front of them lose without being jumped by someone else. Coastal is pulling hard for UGA, Miami and Cincinnati to lose. A c or UGA loss would be their direct and probably only shot at getting into the NY6.
But for all of the talk of Coastal a week ago - no one really watched. Yes, the game was buried on ESPNU, but only 1.21 million viewers tuned in for that game. That’s “about” what Cincinnati pulls in for its bigger games. Georgia, for example, has not had a game this season under 4.22 million viewers.
ESPN isn’t going to sacrifice viewership for a cool story. Coastal is going to need things to go their way, and Indiana not playing this weekend was one more thing going against them. But time has not yet run out on CCU - although a rematch with Louisiana-Lafayette looms.
So win and you are in the New Years Six if you are Kirby and the Dawgs. Playing in the peach Bowl would give Kirby the chance to win three of the six major bowl games in his first five years of being a coach at UGA. That’s not bad.
But first things first - handle the trip to Middle Earth.