Monkey gone…

2,216 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Dawg44
SidViciousDawg
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There it is… we'll win another. Gonna be a fun day in Birmingham for me tomorrow My Bammers are melting, been on their site most the stretch just to witness it. I'd rather beat UA than AU, I know I'm in the minority, but 15 years in Bham …. I've had enough Tide talk.
SidViciousDawg
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8-10 was my number to retain Crean. Year four under the previous staff the Dawgs were 1-5 before an 8-4 run to finish 9-9. Any chance we go 8-4 from here and get to that 8-10?
dawglegright
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3-4 more regular season wins at the most would be my guess.
StevieBuckets
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No.
dawg212003
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This better not give Crean a glimmer of hope.
SidViciousDawg
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I'm sticking with my 8-10 to retain Crean but I'm also sticking with my 3-15 prediction. So don't worry, he's toast.

Quite enjoyable victory, especially for me…. If we only win the one that's the one I wanted. Oats is the second biggest ****** in the league, behind Will Wade, Crean's top 5.

Geez, you can't say d0uche on here?
TKramer15
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Why would there be an arbitrary record that a coach has to reach in year four at a school that has won four NCAA Tournament games in nearly 40 years and made just five appearances since 2000? Why would anyone institute such a mandate when the coach took over a roster bereft of much of any SEC-level talent and then soon dealt with a global pandemic, crazy transfer portal-mania and a second rebuild that was immediately made nearly impossible when the team lost its two best forwards to ACL tears?

Bruce Pearl's first three years: 15-20 (4-14), 11-20 (5-13), 18-14 (7-11)
Tom Crean's first three years: 11-21 (2-16), 16-16 (5-13), 14-12 (7-11)

Eerily similar. Yes, Pearl and Auburn took off in year four. Crean and Georgia have not. Pearl also began four years prior to Crean's arrival and was able to establish better recruiting roots at a time when the SEC was substantially weaker overall than it is now.

Personally, I don't understand why a school like Georgia wouldn't let someone like Crean have six or seven years to truly see what can happen. Daymeon Fishback spoke to this point last night on the SEC Network while mentioning how impatient and not-understanding most fans are. He was thankful that Auburn gave Pearl time.
StevieBuckets
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I hear you. I really do. The comparison with Bruce Pearl is particularly eye-opening, but you quickly dismiss year 4, and I'm not sure that's fair. If a weaker SEC benefited Pearl in some way (I'm less than convinced), fine, but it doesn't matter. That SEC doesn't exist anymore, and Crean has to win now, not 6 or 7 years ago.

Even setting that aside, sell me on Crean year 5. When he sits down with Josh Brooks after the season ends, what is his argument?

As a reminder, something like 10 players transferred out after last season (incredibly alarming), so we can presumably expect at least some attrition after this one. As another reminder, here is Crean's 2022 recruiting class: https://247sports.com/college/georgia/Season/2022-Basketball/Commits/

(if you want to save a click, the class consists of 0 players)

Sell me on why year 5 is going to be better than year 4. Or do I assume year 5 will be another bad one but year 6 is when things get cracking? Do I have to wait until year 7 to know for sure?

You've established that what Crean inherited was not equivalent to what some other coaches did. I'll happily concede that point because, in year 4, I no longer think it matters. I'm trying to look forward.

I want you to be right. I was excited about the hire. I want Crean to be the coach I thought he was going to be. I don't want to start over again.

I'm also willing to have an honest, fair discussion here. Do I think that, as things stand today, Crean has proven he is not right for the job? Yes. Do I remain open-minded? I do. Convince me.
Monkdawg
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The thing about the Crean/Pearl comparison is that it was easy to see that Pearl was about to light it up at Auburn due to his recruiting. He was beginning to load up with talent by year 4, most of it from GA. Crean just hasn't done that. 2014 was Pearl's first year. Like Crean, he was left with a terrible roster, and Pearl has a system that is exciting and up tempo and requires players who can play that style.

Pearl's 1st full class in 2015 included 3 4 stars and Bryce Brown, who helped lead them later to a Final Four and who we did not recruit. The 2016 class had 1 5 star, 2 four stars and a 3 star and include Jared Harper, another GA kid Fox did not recruit. The 2017 class included 2 4 stars, both from GA including Chuma Okeke, another tremendous GA player who didn't even look at us. They were building a roster so deep that the 2018 class only included a transfer back-up PG. The 2019 class included 3 4 stars and 4 3 stars, several of whom make up the depth of the current team and which included Isaac Okoro, another great GA player.

You can see the trend, and many of Pearl's teams have been led by kids from GA (many of whom were recruited during Fox's tenure and built Pearl's momentum in GA). Crean just doesn't have this kind of recruiting. He had 1 class - his 1st that included Edwards and other good players all who have left. Auburn could see that despite Pearl's early lack of success on court the future looked bright. Crean cannot say that. I do admire the current team's heart, but you still have to have talent.
Dawg44
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Great post TK.
TKramer15
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Coincidentally, Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote an article the other day that contains much of the sentiment that I have relayed.

I fully understand Steve and Monk's posts. Both are rational, well thought out takes. Here's what I would say to these worries about building a roster, obtaining continuity, and avoiding roster attrition: Nobody can look at roster construction or continuity the same way that they looked at it just a handful of years ago. Yearly continuity will continue to be elusive.

We've broken down the mass exodus of 2021 ad nauseum. There are many who view it as a total indictment on Crean, his personality, his ability to project a vision for kids, etc. Based on social media fodder, it's easy to see why that narrative proliferates. Maybe it's somewhat fair. However, Crean alone is unlikely to be the overarching or sole reason why those players left.

Auburn and Dayton were narrow runner-ups for KD and Camara to begin with. It's likely that Wheeler de-committed from Texas A&M and committed to Georgia at least partially to play with Edwards. Despite Georgia making incremental progress and Wheeler setting school records, he bolted to join Calipari. Should Crean have foreseen these predilections for non-commitment and steered clear?

Here's the conundrum in today's age: Attention spans are short. Near-instant gratification is a requirement. Almost all high level players want to get to the NBA quickly. Social media dominates teenage and young adult culture.

While I understand that there doesn't appear to be an influx of major talent on the horizon, I guess we really don't know what's going to happen from year to year anymore.

A couple of solid 2023 four-star in-state high schoolers did verbally commit to Georgia. As much as people don't want to acknowledge it, Crean can boast substantially more NBA ties than many others. It's not really about securing just in-state talent. You just need talent period. If you haven't noticed, Georgia is regularly in the mix for top recruits. I understand that that's not good enough, but it's encouraging that they're in the mix.

I'm just not convinced that there's a better solution to try to lure enough talent while also getting a bit lucky. Because let's face it, timing and luck are huge. Crean took over a roster bereft of nearly any SEC-level talent in the midst of a surge in overall conference recruiting. He knows what he's doing, but so do Calipari, Barnes, Pearl, Oats, Musselman, White, Wade, Buzz, Kermit, Howland, Cuonzo, Frank and Stackhouse. Jumping ship this quickly seems ludicrous in many ways. I just don't believe people understand how difficult the task is and how small the margins are.

P.S. I don't know why a winking emoticon appears next to my name at the top haha. That was accidental.
Monkdawg
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TKramer15 said:

Coincidentally, Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote an article the other day that contains much of the sentiment that I have relayed.

I fully understand Steve and Monk's posts. Both are rational, well thought out takes. Here's what I would say to these worries about building a roster, obtaining continuity, and avoiding roster attrition: Nobody can look at roster construction or continuity the same way that they looked at it just a handful of years ago. Yearly continuity will continue to be elusive.

We've broken down the mass exodus of 2021 ad nauseum. There are many who view it as a total indictment on Crean, his personality, his ability to project a vision for kids, etc. Based on social media fodder, it's easy to see why that narrative proliferates. Maybe it's somewhat fair. However, Crean alone is unlikely to be the overarching or sole reason why those players left.

Auburn and Dayton were narrow runner-ups for KD and Camara to begin with. It's likely that Wheeler de-committed from Texas A&M and committed to Georgia at least partially to play with Edwards. Despite Georgia making incremental progress and Wheeler setting school records, he bolted to join Calipari. Should Crean have foreseen these predilections for non-commitment and steered clear?

Here's the conundrum in today's age: Attention spans are short. Near-instant gratification is a requirement. Almost all high level players want to get to the NBA quickly. Social media dominates teenage and young adult culture.

While I understand that there doesn't appear to be an influx of major talent on the horizon, I guess we really don't know what's going to happen from year to year anymore.

A couple of solid 2023 four-star in-state high schoolers did verbally commit to Georgia. As much as people don't want to acknowledge it, Crean can boast substantially more NBA ties than many others. It's not really about securing just in-state talent. You just need talent period. If you haven't noticed, Georgia is regularly in the mix for top recruits. I understand that that's not good enough, but it's encouraging that they're in the mix.

I'm just not convinced that there's a better solution to try to lure enough talent while also getting a bit lucky. Because let's face it, timing and luck are huge. Crean took over a roster bereft of nearly any SEC-level talent in the midst of a surge in overall conference recruiting. He knows what he's doing, but so do Calipari, Barnes, Pearl, Oats, Musselman, White, Wade, Buzz, Kermit, Howland, Cuonzo, Frank and Stackhouse. Jumping ship this quickly seems ludicrous in many ways. I just don't believe people understand how difficult the task is and how small the margins are.

P.S. I don't know why a winking emoticon appears next to my name at the top haha. That was accidental.
As for me, I friggin' hate Mark Bradley. He's one of the prime reasons we are in the fix we are in now. His incessant, snide attacks on Jim Harrick, along with others, led to us abandoning a coach who, in retrospect, had relatively minor issues compared to what we have seen since. I stopped reading him long ago. His goal is not for UGA to be a successful program but to sell papers. Crean is buddies with a number of media members, so I expect them to support him.

I agree that obtaining and maintaining a roster has changed quite a bit over the last several years with COVID, the portal and NIL. The ease at which players can switch to another school is unprecedented. Coaches have to constantly recruit new players, but their own roster as well. Honestly, I don't think Crean has done either very well. He had 1 good class, and recruiting fell off when Abdur-Rahim left for Kennesaw St. Dollar did him no favors by proving ineffective at recruiting for us, somewhat surprisingly.

I think the roster exodus of 2021 breaks down to each individual player's own motives and the fact that none of them had any loyalty to the school or coach. When it did occur, Crean hit the portal to fill the roster, but the talents he brought have been largely, though not entirely, mediocre. Many of the posts we have brought in just aren't very good and are languishing on the bench. Either they aren't very good or they haven't been developed. Crean may not be the sole reason those kids left, but it's his program. He gets the credit for success and the blame for any failure.

Those 2023 players you mentioned are 2 years away. A lot can happen in 2 years. Players decommit all the time for a variety of reasons. Just because we have commitments from these 2 kids doesn't necessarily mean they end up in Athens. And even if Crean is fired, that doesn't mean we would lose their commitments. One thing that bothers me is that there doesn't appear to be much help coming in 2022; we only have the 1 commitment from Elder, who I assume signed, but there has been no announcement either way. Crean, knowing that he is clinging to his job by his fingernails, has done nothing on the recruiting trail for next season. That is concerning. Yes, there is the late signing period and the portal, but how can we be confident that he will obtain better talent than he did last year? A program still has to start with HS seniors to build a roster. Those are the guys you should have long term.

I totally agree that Crean took over a depleted roster when he came to Athens. Fox left him with next to no talent and no SEC caliber guards. We saw guards kill us his 1st season time and time again. As for the assertion that "Crean knows what he's doing," we just haven't seen a lot of evidence of that. 4 years should objectively be sufficient time to put a program headed in the right direction. Can anyone feel confident that we are headed that way? Crean talks a really good game, but the proof is in the pudding. I was not in favor of the Crean hire to begin with. He is a peculiar guy and is not a good fit down here. But I resolved to give him time to put things right. I don't think a reasonable argument can be made that he has done so. Circumstances may have worked against him, but that's why he gets the big bucks.

I think the argument can be made that, because of the portal and because there is so much talent in GA, the right coach can make us competitive quickly. Crean hasn't done that.
Dawg44
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TK, you and Monk are a breath of fresh air around here. But Sid is my favorite poster. Crean is simply not a good fit for us. We need to make a change after the season is over. I will say that Crean has had a great career. One final four and three sweet sixteens. Most coaches never make it to one of those. It just won't happen here.
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