If I'm not mistaken, Gresham graduated from Northeastern and has joined the freshmen in Athens, right? 7 newcomers....6 FR & 1 SR?

ripped

Walkon in the middle should have stood behind someone....and it appears Howard felt inferior as the "tall, skinny guy."

Speaking of hearing stuff... Finebaum caller yesterday had a football question of course but at end of call asked Paul bout UGA Basketball (not that he knows much) and Paul praised Crean and said we'd likely be in or on the bubble. I just can't see it this year with this squad. 6-12 is my best case scenario prediction. Anybody out there more optimistic and think having Edwards is enough to carry us to 9 or more wins and warrant tourney consideration?

SidViciousDawg said:

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Speaking of hearing stuff... Finebaum caller yesterday had a football question of course but at end of call asked Paul bout UGA Basketball (not that he knows much) and Paul praised Crean and said we'd likely be in or on the bubble. I just can't see it this year with this squad. 6-12 is my best case scenario prediction. Anybody out there more optimistic and think having Edwards is enough to carry us to 9 or more wins and warrant tourney consideration?

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We saw Sexton do it at Bama last year.

I think Hammonds becomes the x factor. If he can be a consistent 14-15/game guy... Instead of 25 points one night, followed by a 5 point 2/12 shooting night.. UGA could be good. There is no reason he can't be that guy, especially with better spacing and better playmakers/ballhandlers between Edwards, Gresham and Wheeler.

6-12 is very pessimistic. UGA SHOULD win 8-10 in the SEC this year

To me it all depends.

I can see a horrible year even with a stud (Like Lorenzo Romar's last year in Washington with top NBA pick Markelle Fultz). Or a fast turnaround and we make the dance. It all depends.

Does Hammonds become a consistent force? Or perhaps another (Harris? Brown? Walton? Camara? Gresham?) is that second fiddle to Edwards? Is Edwards a legit difference maker and top pick player? Do we find from the current crop or add a big man? How fast do these new faces gel into a team?

There's a ton of questions on this team and we won't know anything until they take the court. We could have felt better with Claxton back just because we'd be more familiar with the returning talent and how it'll fit together. With this crew, there's just too much unknown that could come good or bad.

Most of us were thinking 8 to 10 wins last year and we won 2, so yeah I'm going in a little pessimistic. Such a void in the middle is gonna be hard to overcome. Ngumezi would have to make a huge leap like Yante or Claxton did frosh to soph and I don't see much chance of that happening and there's no way Howard is gonna be able to contribute this year.

The PG situation is not nearly as bad but still concerning. Edwards, Crump, and Gresham aren't the greatest handlers or distributors of the ball, all are better off the ball. Maybe Fagan shows huge improvement? I have my doubts. Wheeler is the wild card, if he can step in as a freshman and handle the pressure and distribute I would up my guess from 6-12 to 8-10 but I'll be surprised if he's ready for major (15 plus) minutes a game. I just don't see this roster being able to dance.

My $.02:

• Our 3-point % has to improve. The good news is we jettisoned a lot of bad shooters. Likelihood of this happening: high.
• Our rebounding has to improve. Even with Claxton, the rebounding numbers last season were not great. Some of that was thanks to terrible defense (can't rebound makes!), but some of it was also want-to. Rebounding effort is something we may have gotten a bit spoiled on during the Fox years. The lack of post size and depth concerns me. Likelihood of this happening: low.
• Our turnover numbers have to go down. This is obvious. Most of our ball-handlers will be new to the program, but they will hopefully be more skilled than the guys they are replacing (Turtle and Teshaun). I suspect turnovers will continue to be a problem, but tick down slightly. Likelihood of this happening: somewhat?
• Our point guard play has to improve. Since we barely had point guard play last year, I'd consider this inevitable. Edwards, at least, has the skill to get to the basket, something we haven't seen in Athens since J.J. waved goodbye. Likelihood of this happening: inevitable.
• Wildcard: Rayshaun Hammonds. This has already been mentioned, but if Rayshaun can stay on the floor (no stupid fouls) and find his aggressiveness, the team will be much, much better for it. Likelihood of this happening: ???

To me, this all adds up to a 16-18 win season. I think we get smoked early by the likes of Michigan State/Kansas (if we meet one of them), Arizona State, and Memphis, find our sea legs early in conference play, and scratch our way to 8 or 9 conference wins. No tournament invite...

If Anthony Edwards turns out to be a generational talent, add a few wins and maybe we're bubble in.

I do think the stage is set with a very strong incoming class of freshmen, most of whom will stick around for a few years. I want to see improvement in the areas mentioned, and I want to see Crean start to string together top 10-15 recruiting classes. I remain upbeat!

SidViciousDawg said:

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Most of us were thinking 8 to 10 wins last year and we won 2, so yeah I'm going in a little pessimistic. Such a void in the middle is gonna be hard to overcome. Ngumezi would have to make a huge leap like Yante or Claxton did frosh to soph and I don't see much chance of that happening and there's no way Howard is gonna be able to contribute this year.

The PG situation is not nearly as bad but still concerning. Edwards, Crump, and Gresham aren't the greatest handlers or distributors of the ball, all are better off the ball. Maybe Fagan shows huge improvement? I have my doubts. Wheeler is the wild card, if he can step in as a freshman and handle the pressure and distribute I would up my guess from 6-12 to 8-10 but I'll be surprised if he's ready for major (15 plus) minutes a game. I just don't see this roster being able to dance.

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Strongly disagree on Edwards. Crump has shown in 3 years he can do very little besides catch and shoot. But Edwards is a very ball dominant playmaking guard. Not an off-ball player at all. Very much in the mold of a Derozan or Harden type. And Idk much about Gresham. But he has to be a much better #2 option than Harris or Crump. And I'm sure is also a better option than Turtle or Hightower were.

Those are good comparisons for Edwards NBA wise. I want him to be and he will be ball dominant once we cross half court, I'm just not comfortable with him being the guy to bring it up court possession after possession against full court pressure. I'd rather him expend his energy after crossing half court. Maybe he and Crump or he and Gresham will be able to handle full court pressure and limit turnovers when on the court together. I'd be very nervous with Edwards and Harris as the only guards on the floor.

I think we'll start 3 guards... Edwards, Harris and Crump (or Gresham) along w/ Hammonds and Ngumezi. The more I look at that possible lineup the less confident I get that we'll be anywhere close to a tourney worthy team. Too few rebounds, too many turnovers and I don't see how our defense will be better without Claxton than it was last year when we ranked 245th in the country.

How often do teams play full court pressure?

If it was likely to be a massive issue for ball handlers, we'd have seen a ton more full court pressure last season with no PG. We'd have seen more of it with Fox when our teams were almost a guaranteed turnover on traps and pressure D (we all recall that debacle ending vs A&M). I honestly don't get why our SEC opponents didn't do that for 40 minutes every time against Fox teams. They had to notice how frequent we completely failed against traps and full court press Ds.

Last year we had no point guards, yet most of our turnovers were in the half court, and most committed in the paint by our posts. This year we have 3 ball handlers arriving, better than anyone we had last season. Bringing the ball up the court will not be a problem, and is way down the list on things I would worry about. I am more concerned about our 3 pt shooting needing to improve, and defense in the paint. But exiting players 26% 3's, returning 36%, and most of the newcomers shoot the 3 well. So the post position is the matter to worry about.

I often wondered why teams weren't pressuring us the whole 40 as well. Wherever the pressure comes, we'll have too many turnovers with Edwards and Harris as guards playing with Hammonds, Ngumezi and ???non-guard on the court together.

As of today I'd go with Edwards, Crump and Harris and have Edwards and Crump sharing PG and SG duties and hope Gresham and Wheeler can contribute or be good enough to steal a starting spot from Crump. I do think Crump will benefit from Edwards drawing the defenses towards him and should get a lot of open look opportunities which could lead to a big year for him (10-12ppg) but we more or less know what we have in Tyree; how Gresham and Wheeler contribute could be a difference maker.

I expect one, if not more than one, of Brown, Walton, and Camara, to step up as an impact wing. Not like the impact we expect from Edwards, but I think at least one if not two of the non Antman freshman (so add Wheeler too) to prove a solid starter this season.

begger said:

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I expect one, if not more than one, of Brown, Walton, and Camara, to step up as an impact wing. Not like the impact we expect from Edwards, but I think at least one if not two of the non Antman freshman (so add Wheeler too) to prove a solid starter this season.

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I think Walton, with his perimeter shot, will be a guy that gets good minutes at the 3, backing up Harris. Camara is showing up, on the new 2019-20 roster on the UGA site, as 6'8" 220lbs. We will need his court time in a 3 man rotation with Hammonds 6'9" 235lbs, and Amanze 6"9 235lbs.

nm

So we all agree Edwards and Hammonds are a given as starters with Ngumezi a starter by default. Harris the most likely 4th starter alongside Crump or Gresham or maybe even Wheeler by the time SEC play arrives. This looks like our top seven in minutes played and we'll see if all three freshmen (Walton, Camara, Brown) contribute, I say yes. That's ten players in the rotation without mentioning Fagan or Howard. Fagan will get a chance but I don't see Howard being able to compete with anybody's bigs in the league. Ngumezi as our one and only big man is gonna make for a tough season, I don't see anyway around it.

We don't look as small as I feared: Here is what georgiadogs now have listed:
Hammonds. 6'9 235lbs
Ngumezi .....6'9 235lbs
Camara........6'8 220lbs
Howard.......6'11 245lbs

If the staff can light a fire under a couple of 6'9" guys, I see a decent 3 man rotation at the 4/5.

https://georgiadogs.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball

SidViciousDawg said:

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So we all agree Edwards and Hammonds are a given as starters with Ngumezi a starter by default.

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Maybe not. Is this UGABB tweet our "starting 5 as of July", or a wakeup call to Ngumezi?

Fingers crossed on that... we're still asking two small forwards to play the 4 and a power forward to play the 5. I'm not that concerned about them on the offensive end where we'll run a lot of 4 out 1 in and we have scorers in Edwards, Hammonds, Crump, etc but defensively we were 245th last year and I'm not sure this team will improve on that.

Howard is awfully young, I believe he recently turned 18, and maybe S&C will turn him into something better than the 42nd ranked Center (#239 overall) that he is coming out of high school but if he's getting many minutes this year we're in trouble.

My guess (and fear) is that Howard is going to have to log some meaningful minutes due to foul trouble/fatigue of Ngumezi. For defensive purposes, at time we will need some more length/beef on the court.

Either that or we'll get a grad transfer big once they've completed their degree in summer school. That's the only way we aren't playing a lot of small ball, and with basically SFs as our post players.

begger said:

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Either that or we'll get a grad transfer big once they've completed their degree in summer school. That's the only way we aren't playing a lot of small ball, and with basically SFs as our post players.

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6'9 235, 6'9 235, and 6'8 220 are some pretty big small forwards.

The size of our top 3 posts are comparable, or larger, than about half the Sweet 16 field this past season. My concern is not with the size of their bodies, that is very typical of 5's in todays basketball, but the size of their "hearts", "to want it".

I'm predicting 6-12 to 8-10 at best. If pressed to bet over 8 or under 6... I'm taking the under. I may have missed it somewhere but what are you predicting BMD (or anyone else)?

I would have no idea how to predict, with all the unknowns of more than half the roster being newcomers. But I will try, with a bunch of "IFs".

Best case: Hammonds and Ngumezi become reliable paint defenders, Harris shoots more 3's and keeps his 40%+ avg, Crump returns to 40%, Ant is all we expect and more, the two arriving point guards play well and shoot the 3 well, and Camara becomes a serviceable 3rd post. I know all these "what ifs" probably wouldn't occur, but "if" occurs = NCAA 2nd Rd.

Worst case: Other than Ant, freshmen aren't ready, RH and AN can't find their "want to", Crump and Harris only shoot mid 30% on 3's = 6-12. 14-17.

My guess. All 5 returnees improve. 3 are sure starters, along with Ant. The 5th starter is Gresham or Wheeler, which will be a tremendous improvement over our "points" from last season. Cam will play the 4 pretty good for a freshman, and the biggest freshman surprise will be Walton backing up Harris. He can flat out produce offense. So if Hammonds and Ngumezi can just be average defenders, and stay out of foul trouble, I will guess 9-9, 19-12.

Maybe I am just completely stupid or naive, but I don't see how this team can't be on the bubble for a tourney spot this coming year. I think the talent is higher than it has been in MANY years, albeit young of course. BUT, Mark Fox's last two years in Athens, we went 19-15 and 18-15, 9-9 in SEC followed by 7-11. Last year, changing a playing style completely, with very limited backcourt play, we won 2 conference games. If you look at how this team played in SEC action starting in Feb, we lost by 6 at SCarolina, 5 at home vs. Bama, by 4 to LSU, by 1 to Miss State, by 1 to Ole Miss, by 3 to Auburn, we beat UF. We laid eggs against Missouri and South Carolina to close out but my point is, we played some competitive basketball against teams that made the dance.

If Clax had come back, I would feel better about our chances, not going to deny that, but with Anthony Edwards coming in, we have a kid that is capable of carrying us. If he is truly a potential #1 player in the draft, you have to believe he is the difference in about 4-5 games himself. You couple him coming in with some other newcomers that fit Crean's playing style, you added a veteran PG that can allow Edwards to shift to his natural position at least part of the time, you move the 3 point shot back, which will help Edwards and our other guards like Harris in particular-spreading the floor and letting guys like that drive to the basket opens up the offense so much. You also have to look at the mass exodus of players leaving from SEC teams. You factor all of that together and I believe this team has a chance at 9-11 conference wins. Also keep this in mind, the fact we have a player like Edwards, the NCAA tourney committee looks for players like that to add a team on the bubble. A sure fire top 2-3 draft pick. If we can get on the bubble, Antman gets us in to showcase his ability before he heads to the draft.

There is certainly talent on this team but I can't recall ever having such a void inside. If I look at this roster versus 2014-15 with Thornton, Djurisic and Maten inside and Mann, Gaines and Frazier on the perimeter I'd give the edge to the 2014-15 team.

Having the #1 draft pick didn't work out well for LSU in 2015-16 when they went 18-13 and 11-7 in league and were left out of the tourney. Even worse for Washington in 2016-17 when they finished 9-22 overall.

Even if Ngumezi makes an unforeseen huge leap this year we are still incredibly weak inside. I can't see how we defend or rebound well enough to contend. We'll get hot in some games and with Edwards we'll be able to outscore some decent teams. Still my prediction of 6-8 wins versus Haney's 9-11 wins aren't that far apart. Overall the SEC looks to be down a bit this year so getting to 9-9 might be attainable if all goes well.

SidViciousDawg said:

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There is certainly talent on this team but I can't recall ever having such a void inside. If I look at this roster versus 2014-15 with Thornton, Djurisic and Maten inside and Mann, Gaines and Frazier on the perimeter I'd give the edge to the 2014-15 team.

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Would Fox be coaching that 2014-15 team vs Crean's 2019-20 team? I take Crean's team in that matchup.

We need Ngumezi to step up certainly, and a couple of the FR also to help, but there are just not a lot of teams with solid big guys these days, and again I look at moving the 3 point line back as something that really works to our advantage, because it spaces the floor more and allows guys like Ant, Edwards and Hammonds the ability to drive and shoot or kick to wide open shooters. I also like how athletic this team and I would imagine we will try to play more up tempo. I don't seem to recall Auburn having a true big last year, nor did Tenn, really can't remember a lot of teams with bigs-Zion was Duke's big for the most part when I watched but yet he was also making 3's, Clax was our big last year but he was outside a lot, probably more than inside. I look at the NBA and how the bigs are coming out more and more to shoot, I guess I just believe that this position-less basketball is what we are in right now and thus I think that is type roster Crean has built us here in a short time.

Impossible to predict this team yet. Don't know enough about them.

Boy, what I would give to have Nemi and Thornton on this team. Or Nemi and Maten.

Shae Alexander at UTk was their center at 6'10"; AU had Wiley, a 7 footer, who could play in the post, but they had other guys who could defend and rebound in the post as well.

BTW, in answer to the initial question, I have heard that Walton is really looking good in summer workouts. That could change the way we view our distribution of minutes in the fall. I'm still worried about that donut hole we have in the middle though.

Will either of those bigs play in the NBA Monk?? Don't get me wrong, I am concerned about the inside but I just believe if you are athletic and 6-8 or 6-9 (we have a few of those) you can rebound the ball and also score inside, especially with the better guards we have driving and drawing the defenders and then kicking it for an easy shot.

Maybe I have too high of expectations but with all the other SEC teams lost, I feel like we can make a big move this year.