Who Will Win Big This Weekend? UGA Football Faces UMass | Will Someone Get Upset?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 8 UGA football are headed back to Atlanta to take on UMass Saturday afternoon Between the Hedges, and there is certain to be some scoreboard watching. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Indiana (+13.5) at Ohio State | FOX | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is where the Hoosiers go down. Big. They can still lose this game and sneak their way into the playoffs. It's not right, but that appears to be the reality. The Buckeyes will win as they already have one loss, and I think a late score gets them a 14-point win. Close game for a while, but the Buckeyes pull away at home. Buckeyes (-14).
Ryan’s Pick: I have seen plenty of conspiracy theories on the internet that they are going to keep this game close to ensure that both are in a good position to have a home playoff game. I don’t think this game is going to be close. Indiana is a good team. I think the Hoosiers have earned a playoff spot so far. I just don’t agree with the rankings.
I am taking Ohio State (-13.5) here. The Hoosiers have not seen anything like what the Buckeyes will trot out there on Saturday.
Dean’s Pick: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said earlier this week that Georgia played Chattanooga... in trying to point out that other teams play bad teams, too, he decided to just make something up.
I know we live in a post-truth world, but if you are going to be an asshole at least be better some aspects of who UGA has played poorly against. Also - why are you talking about Georgia? If you just beat the two teams that played for it all - as you correctly point out without any context to that statement - then why bring up the only team that’s won it all two years in a row lately?
You got enough problems than mentioning UGA right now. That problem is playing a team that’s ranked - Ohio State - for the first time this season. You aren’t playing Maryland or Western Illinois, or other Big Ten-level teams. You are playing arguably the best team in the country.
Cignetti has done a whale of a job this season - guiding a listless program to hope in a bad league. They escaped Michigan at home - yes, beating Michigan by five at home is escaping - and now IU has sat around for two weeks wondering what will happen, and what they'll have to deal with on the road at Ohio State - a team that's clearly better, but one that has show that it isn't indestructible (like everyone else in college football).
On the whole, Ohio State has probably played more consistently than anyone in the country. That doesn't mean they have not had poor moments (entire Nebraska game; first half of Marshall; first half of Northwestern; the close of Oregon).
It happens.
But nothing in my mind makes me think a team that just struggled at home with a bad Michigan team is ready to go to Columbus and be successful. Cignetti's done well. If you are a big shot that matches your big mouth you go and win at the Horseshoe. Otherwise have fun holding on for dear life with no win of consequence as the playoff committee screws up picks its teams.
Ohio State (-13.5). Big.
Google that.
Ole Miss (-10.5) at Florida | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Just survive and advance for Ole Miss. Get the win and get back home. That’s what I think will happen on Saturday. The Rebels win the game, but the Gators, playing at home, will keep this one close. It’s hard to play on the road, and 10.5-points is a lot. I’ll take an Ole Miss victory and a Florida cover. Gators (+10.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Trap game? I think the Rebels probably win this one, but I have to say that I have been somewhat impressed with Florida this season. I really did think it was going to be a total disaster. I think the Gators (+10.5) will cover.
Dean’s Pick: This game is screaming WATCH OUT to Ole Miss. I think they are good enough to avoid the pitfalls of going on the road, but the Gators are playing better. I thought LSU could lose at Florida last week. I think Ole Miss can lose at Florida this week, too. This game being at noon may or may not matter because Florida thinks they have found something suddenly (they found a total beating at Texas two weeks ago, so they could still be Bono wondering the streets of Vegas for all we know).
But the Gators look better. We will see if that matters. Ole Miss played their game of the season in Oxford two weeks ago against the Dawgs. Idiot fans stormed the field twice. Now they've had two weeks to marinade in how good they are. I know the likes of Ole Miss, South Carolina, Kentucky and others. I know how this can end - we will see if that happens.
Give me the Gators (+10.5).
Penn State (-12.5) at Minnesota | CBS | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Same situation as Ole Miss. The Gophers stink, but I have a hard time seeing this Penn State squad blowing them out on the road. They have an impressive defense that will lead them to victory, but I’m expecting a punt fest up there. Low scoring game, but Penn State wins it at the end. Give me the Gophers (+12.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I don’t think Penn State is a great team. It is a good team. Is it deserving of a playoff spot? Probably. I am going with the Gophers (-12.5) here. Penn State has not been able to separate from B1G schools unless they are pretty bad. That is not the case with Minnesota.
Dean’s Pick: This line is too big. Minnesota is not good, but twice this season on the road Penn State has been underwhelming - USC (overtime win over a bad team) and a sloppy performance against Wisconsin. Minnesota has lost at home to North Carolina, so that should tell you where they are - in the garbage with the rest of the Big Ten.
However, I expect this game to not be a lot of fun, and therefore I will take the free points at home for a team getting double digits in a conference game. Give me the Gophers (+12.5).
The United States Military Academy (+14) at University of Notre Dame du Lac | NBC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Notre Dame can’t win the national title, but they’ll be in the playoffs unless they completely fall on their face against Army or USC. USC stinks and this Army team hasn’t played a legitimate opponent all year long. If Army wins this game, we need to keep Notre Dame out of the playoffs next year, too. We need a full college football season without talking about Notre Dame. They still aren’t great, but they’re they’re far more talented than Army and should have no problem winning this game. The Irish roll easy here, as they should. No excuses. If you can’t beat Army by 14, you shouldn’t be in the playoffs. Irish (-14).
Ryan’s Pick: Notre Dame has the athletes, the defense and enough on offense to win this one big. I wish that the Irish would either join a conference or toughen up the schedule. Notre Dame (-14). No offense to the Army, I just don’t think this will be very close.
Dean’s Pick: I love how this is going to be treated like it is a big game. I can confirm that it is not. This is very simple. Notre Dame isn't great. They are playing this game at Yankee Stadium because Babe Ruth or something, and Army comes into it undefeated. What I can't understand is the disrespect for Army, an undefeated team, and being ranked so low. Indiana is undefeated... what's the difference? Who they play?
So stupid.
Give me Notre Dame (+14) to cover. And I am sure this is fun for Notre Dame, but they are just taking their time before their impending doom in the playoff.
Alabama (-14) at Oklahoma | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Alabama. All day long. Playing in Norman doesn’t scare anyone. Alabama took LSU’s soul in Death Valley a couple of weeks ago. They should have no problem beating up on a broken Oklahoma team. Real national championship contenders don’t mess around with a bad team like Oklahoma. I’ll take Alabama (-14).
Ryan’s Pick: Bama is rolling right now. Oklahoma is not very good. Don’t overthink this one. Alabama (-14).
Dean’s Pick: Alabama is playing well. Oklahoma won't prevent that from happening. I am sure everyone at Disney hoped this would be a better game. Oklahoma probably won't be in primetime that often next season. Brent Venables appears to be in over his head - two losing seasons in three years is in sight. Probably the easiest pick of the weekend - Alabama (-14)... super big.
Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn | ESPN | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The most “trap game” of the year. The Aggies will walk into Auburn’s trap on Saturday night, and they’ll leave the trap with a victory. A close victory, but a victory. The Tigers are trapped with Hugh Freeze, so they’ll find a way to lose this one. Weird things happen over there, and Auburn has nothing to lose. The Aggies have everything to lose, so I expect them to be locked in and ready to go. Tight game until the end, but I think the Aggies survive. Texas A&M (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This was the toughest one for me to pick this week. I am not a huge believer in Texas A&M. I will say, the Aggies do have some of the ingredients you need in a winning formula. The front seven is very talented, the running game is solid and the culture is improving. Auburn has been one of the worst teams in the SEC, but it has played a lot of close games. Georgia’s 31-13 victory has been the Tigers’ biggest loss so far.
I am going with Auburn (+2.5) at Jordan-Hare at night. That is one of the toughest environments in college football to play in.
Dean’s Pick: For all of the talk of the Texas game, A&M has to travel to Auburn. This is what its like playing in the SEC. Not that the Aggies need to be reminded of it. Let's not forget that this is an A&M team that go smoked at South Carolina, didn't play great at State, struggled with both Bowling Green and Arkansas. This is not a great team. I wouldn't be shocked with an upset here, but I trust the Auburn family even less. Give me the Aggies (-2.5).
USC (-4.5) at UCLA | NBC | 10:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Love this game, but it doesn’t feel like it’s really mattered in a while. The Bruins are the Bruins. Exactly what we expected. The Trojans of course disappointed, which is exactly what we all expected to happen as well. Both programs should be better and hopefully, this game will matter again sooner rather than later. In the end, I think Lincoln Riley is just a giant loser. I want the Bruins and those cheerleaders to be a happy group on Saturday night. They may lose, but I’ll take the Bruins to cover. UCLA (+4.5).
Ryan’s Pick: New starting quarterback, slightly better team, slightly better uniforms. Give me USC (-4.5).
Dean’s Pick: I used to love this game when I was a kid. I was always on ABC, and it had the bright colors of the two schools. It felt like a spot in the Rose Bowl Game was always on the line. It also felt like this game was played in the sunlight a lot. It was a great rivalry, but this game literally doesn't matter and has not mattered now for some time. Both of these programs are irrelevant. Lincoln Riley has failed at USC - I'm not sure there is a better way to put it. UCLA has had five ten-win season since 1990. They have played more Sun Bowls (4) than Rose Bowls (2) in that time.
No one cares, and you can tell. Give me the Bruins (+4.5), which is west coast for Bears, and the points.
UMass (+42) at Georgia | SECN | 12:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: After thinking it over, I’m taking the UMass and the points. IT doesn’t make sense, but history says that will happen. Georgia’s one of the best teams in the country and UMass is a BAD football team with no leadership. Georgia could win this game by 50 points if that was the objective. Since it’s not, I’m expecting Kirby to get up early and play conservative with the backups in the second half. Give me a comfortable 45-6 victory. UMass (+42).
Ryan’s Pick: I wanted to take Georgia, but the lesson I have learned when picking Georgia against cupcakes is to not do it. Maybe Kirby decides it is time to put up style points, but I think the priority will be to win and get out of the game. Georgia wins big, UMass (+42) covers.
Dean’s Pick: I'm going to take the points here, so that’s UMass (+42). I'm not sure what's going to happen, but UGA is 0-11-1 against the spread in games where they are favored by more than 40 points. Isn't that all you need to know? In seven of those games the under was the winner. Usually these games are slow and boring. I expect the same thing Saturday.
Season ATS
Matt | 44-56
Ryan | 41-59
Dean | 48-52