Who Will Win - Kirby Smart's UGA Football or Miss. State?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 5 UGA football are back Between the Hedges this week. This Saturday the Dawgs tee it up against State. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
Clemson (-20) at Wake Forest | ESPN | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m taking the Tigers all day here. Wake Forest has a terrible atmosphere. Clemson’s playing like they have something to prove. Wake flat-out stinks. Clemson (-20).
Ryan’s Pick: Clemson has looked pretty solid since the week one loss to Georgia where it couldn’t score. Last week Clemson barely held on to cover in Tallahassee. I’m taking the Tigers (-20) to cover a big line again. This will be an even less intimidating place to play.
Dean’s Pick: I like the way Clemson is play. Cade Klubnik? We still have some work to do there, but Clemson, for me, is just plain too much for Wake. Give me the Taters - Clemson (-20).
Penn State (-6.5) at USC | CBS | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: USC looked bad last week, but this feels like a perfect bounce back day. Penn State is looking strong. Too strong. I think I’ll take the Trojans with the points at home. This could be the week everyone Penn State drops a game they probably shouldn’t. Long trip out west. I’ll take the Trojans here. USC (+6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: It is time to start having the Lincoln Riley-USC conversation. It’s not working. Oklahoma was competing for a spot or made it with Riley at the helm, and that was the four-team situation. One Heisman Trophy winner in a few years is not enough for how big of a deal this hire was.
It won’t be flashy, but I like Penn State (-6.5) to win by at least a touchdown in LA. Penn State will likely make the playoff, and it needs every win it can get.
Dean’s Pick: So this could be one one of those games that I get wrong because I have not been impressed with one team, and the other has a reputation for not getting it right when they need to. USC should have beaten Michigan in Ann Arbor, but they let a team better than them beat them... not a great look.
Then we've got James Franklin's Penn State - a program that might be highly ranked, but never gets it done when they need to. In a decade of College Football Playoff Penn State has combined to do nothing. Meanwhile, Georgia, Alabama and LSU have all won national titles. Ohio State and Michigan did as well... so why can't Penn State?
Games like this. I think PSU wins, but give me the Trojans (+6.5) out west.
South Carolina (+21) at Alabama | ABC | 12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Classic Carolina game. That’s where my head’s at. As soon as you think you know what you’re getting with the Cocks, they go all Jekyl and Hyde on you. After a disaster of a loss to Ole Miss, I think they’ll give Alabama a two-quarter fight.
If you’re Alabama, how will you respond? Will the fans show up? Will they be ready to play a Carolina team that’s looked halfway decent this year?
Alabama wins, but for some reason I think Carolina will put up enough points on a bad Alabama defense to get the cover. South Carolina (+21).
Ryan’s Pick: Alabama does not lose games like it did last week. Under Nick Saban, it would lose to Texas A&M or Ole Miss or Auburn, and those teams were usually pretty good or had Heisman contenders on them. Losing to Vanderbilt was different, even if Vanderbilt has improved.
How will the Alabama fans respond this week when they’ve got to get up for an 11 AM kickoff against South Carolina? Georgia fans didn’t respond well to the Dawgs losing to Bama. I’ve got South Carolina (+21). It feels dumb now that I’ve typed it out.
Dean’s Pick: I suspect Alabama bounces back, but I am not certain. I watched the Vandy game week, and I can confirm that Alabama has some real issues on defense. Bama has allowed at least 34 points in two SEC games - that's not happened since 2021. That team played for a national title. But in the past Alabama didn't allow points like that in their "first" two SEC games of the season.
So we've got some issues with the likes of Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and the rest of the schedule rolling up.
As it relates to the Cocks, Carolina has played "pretty" well this season with the execution of the ODU and Ole Miss games. Perhaps age-related programs are the only one giving Carolina issues. This Carolina team is probably a little better than they should be, but this stretch - at Bama, at Oklahoma and vs. A&M - this is the schedule. This is the season for Carolina. They aren't getting into the playoff, but they can screw some teams up.
Let's just see - give me the Tide (-21), but I'm pretty uncertain.
Texas (-14) vs. Oklahoma | ABC | 3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Throw out the records. This is one of the best rivalries in college football and I expect a tight one. I don’t care how good Texas has looked. I don’t care about how awful the Sooners have looked at times. The Longhorns are better, but the Sooners are coming for a battle. I think this one will be tighter than people think. Sooners (+14).
Ryan’s Pick: Texas is the better team. Texas is getting its star quarterback this week. Texas has a functional offense AND defense. Texas (-14) will win and cover.
Dean’s Pick: I think Texas is clearly better. Not a lot more to say about it. Oklahoma is missing some guys, and they are not great at quarterback. The back-to-back with the second part being Georgia will be the real challenge for Texas this season. Give me the Horns (-14).
Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU | ABC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Night game in Death Valley? Have to take the Tigers. That’s the rule. I like Ole Miss’ bounce-back win against Carolina, but this is the “toughest place to play” in college football. Right? If that’s the case year in and year out, I’ll take the Tigers to cover. Ole Miss is the better team, and they can still win, but I’m not falling for the trap. LSU gets a big night win. Tigers (+3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I think Ole Miss is the better team, but man I thought the Rebels would look more explosive on the offensive side of the ball when conference play rolled around. LSU is not a trustworthy pick, but this is in Death Valley at night. I’ll take LSU (+3.5).
Dean’s Pick: This is a great night game that ABC gets - I love it. That's the point of this SEC-Disney contract. I love it. Everyone loves it. Now, I'm not sure I have a 100-percent great feel for this game. I can't trust LSU. Ole Miss? The performance against Kentucky gives me real pause, but they recovered with the win over USC. The Rebels have slowed down scoring, and that might not be ideal heading into this fight in Death Valley. We will have to see. I will take LSU (+3.5) and the points, but I don't like LSU, or the situation that Ole Miss is in on the road.
Florida (+15.5) at Tennessee | ESPN | 7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Too many points. Too many points. Tennessee’s coming off a tough loss and now take on a Florida team that appears to be playing their best. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this were a close game. Tennessee’s defense will lead them to victory, but I’m not expecting a blowout here. Tennessee’s the one playing with all the pressure. If you’re Florida, what do you have to lose? Tennesse will take care of business in the 4th quarter, but I’ll take Florida to cover. Gators (+15.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I have Tennessee (-15.5). I knew the Vols were going to slip up soon, but I did not expect it to be against Arkansas. This pick is about Florida for me more so than it is about Tennessee. The Gators are bad. Tennessee, to me, is a borderline playoff team that only has one more game to lose. It won’t be against Florida.
Dean’s Pick: Florida can beat Tennessee. I'm just going to say that right now. The Vols are spinning a little more than you would like at this point in the season. Now here come the Gators and their total dysfunction. Give me the Gators (+15.5) - I expect Tennessee to win, but give me the more than two touchdowns.
Ohio State (-3) at Oregon | NBC | 7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Give me the Buckeyes. They look legit. Oregon’s playing better, but Dillon Gabriel hasn’t shown me enough to make me think he can beat Ohio State. He’s going to have a tough time against that Buckeye defense. Even on the road, I expect the Buckeyes to roll. Close game for a while, but I’ll take Ohio State to cover. Buckeyes (-3).
Ryan’s Pick: Ohio State is going to be too much for the Ducks. Oregon has not lived up to the preseason hype. I think that Ohio State clearly has the best roster in the country, and we are finally going to get to see it go up against some talent that can match it. I think this is an easy cover for the Buckeyes (-3).
Dean’s Pick: Now we get to see if Ohio State is all smoke and mirrors, or if Oregon has figured things out. I'm going to take Ohio State (-3) to cover the line because my guess is the Buckeyes are the better team. There have been some not-so-great moments for both of these teams - and neither of them have played a soul.
If you are as high powered as OSU is supposed to be, and they are certainly supposed to be, why can't you score more than seven points against Iowa in the first half at home? What about the far more difficult struggle against Marshall? Is Ohio State just a second-half team? Don't tell Michigan or Georgia that because it isn't true.
It is also possible that Ohio State and Oregon simply don't play anyone in the Big Ten. There's that, and that could very well be real. Looked real when Missouri was kicking Ohio State's ass in the Cotton Bowl last year. Looked real when Ole Miss was kicking Penn State's ass in the Peach Bowl.
RANT ALERT: I know no one is going to care about what I am about to write about, but here goes: I have no clue why this game is on NBC and not on FOX.
If you are paying the real money to have all of the Big Ten's best games, and you are giving away the second-best game of the season, what is the point of paying all of the money? This game should be on primetime on FOX.
NBC has no real marketing capabilities in the world of college football. They have Sunday Night Football, which is the most-watched program in TV, but that's not the same as having your primetime game lead in that's Texas-Oklahoma... not the same at all. Instead NBC has Stanford at Notre Dame as the lead in... I can assure you that no one will be watching that. They'll be watching UT-OU.
This game could be primetime FOX with another Big Ten game as the lead in, but whatever.
All that said, the fact of the matter is that the SEC simply has the inventory that no one else has. Consider Carolina-Bama, Texas-Oklahoma, Florida-Tennessee and Ole Miss-LSU... you can't compete with that.
State (-34) at Georgia | SECN | 4:15 PM
Matt’s Pick: I like Georgia to win big, but not this big. This is a game where Georgia needs to fix the run. State’s defense can get gashed with the run and Georgia needs to prove they can do it. This game could fly by, especially if State tries to slow down the game and pick up some occasional first downs. 34 points is a lot of points. If Georgia can get it done, that would be impressive. Texas couldn’t do it. I’m thinking this could be a 41-10 type of game and that’s a perfectly solid win. No cover though. Mississippi State (+34).
Ryan’s Pick: No more. No more picking Georgia to cover big lines until the offense becomes more explosive and consistent. I have confidence that Georgia’s defense is going to have another strong day, so I am tempted to pick the Dawgs to cover, but I can’t. Here is the thing with Georgia too guys- Kirby is a cover killer. He is not the type of coach to put up style points even if they are up for grabs. Sometimes he reaches his hand into the cookie jar. Just ask Florida State and TCU.
Do you want to get a little wild? It could be a conspiracy theory that Kirby Smart does not blow out some SEC opponents in a big way to protect the integrity of the league’s competitive reputation.
Do you want to know my take? If Georgia has the opportunity to hang 60 on Mississippi State, it should. If it can’t, it can’t. I’ve got Mississippi State (+34), by the way.
Dean’s Pick: Give me State. Why? Five touchdowns to cover? What is this?
No. State (+34).
Also, when we all pick against Georgia that's an alert...
Season ATS
Matt 26-26
Ryan 20-33
Dean 26-26