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Georgia Football

Who Will Win - Kirby Smart's UGA Football or the Alabama Crimson Tide?

September 26, 2024
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 2 UGA football are headed to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday night. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.

Virginia Tech (+17) at Miami | ESPN |7:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: Lot of points, but I don’t care. The Hokies stink and Miami has a quarterback. In fact, the ‘Canes might be for real. If that offense gets going, they’ll look to embarrass Virginia Tech. Give me Miami (-17).

Ryan’s Pick: At this point in the season, Miami should be a playoff team whether the Hurricanes win the ACC or not, and I think they will now. I was starting to wonder in the first half last week if South Florida was just going to be a tough out for any big program that it faces, but Miami pulled away with a lot more comfort than Alabama did. Virginia Tech is not very good- give me Miami (-17).

Dean’s Pick: This should get ugly. Miami has "probably" been the best team in the ACC so far this season, but Clemson's been pretty good, too, non-getting-your-ass-drug-by-the-Dawgs category. Miami seems settled in and worked out. Virginia Tech seems lost. I watched that loss to Rutgers last weekend - that was a furious rally only to lose. I don't like it at all. I will take the Canes (-17) in what should be an easy win.

Kentucky (+17) at Ole Miss | ESPN |12:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: This one could be interesting in the first half. Kentucky will put up a fight for a while, but overall talent and depth will win over. Late cover for Ole Miss at home. They keep it rolling. Ole Miss (-17).

Ryan’s Pick: It’s time to find out something real about Ole Miss. the Rebels have taken care of business in a big way in the games it should have so far. No matter what happened between Kentucky and Georgia, I am not a big believer in the Wildcats. I think this will be the first team that tests Ole Miss up front. At the end of the day, I think Ole Miss (-17) is too good for them at home. I just picked two -17s in-a-row.

Dean’s Pick: Very curious to see this one. High-powered offense against a really good defense. Kentucky played better than Ole Miss last weekend, but this is the first road game of the season for the Cats. I'm not a giant fan of delaying that long playing on the road. 

I expect Kentucky to struggle to score, but the Rebels are not playing directional schools any more. This will be an actual challenge for them. I don't think Mississippi is looking ahead of the Cats (after all they are only playing Southern Cootlumbia next weekend on the road), but I think they will look past them. Early game... Kentucky will be ready. 

Give me them Cats (+17).

Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Kansas State | ESPN |12:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: I see a big bounce-back week for Kansas State. After a blowout loss to BYU, they’ll play with an edge this weekend in a massive home conference game. They’ll win the game, but I think I’ll take the Cowboys to keep it close. They’re coming off a tight loss to Utah and would hate to take another loss. They’ll make this a full four-quarter game. Pokes (+5.5).

Ryan’s Pick: It was a disappointing Saturday for these two a week ago. I came away less impressed with Oklahoma State getting shut down at home than I did Kansas State getting handled in Provo, Utah late at night. I like watching the Wildcats’ quarterback Avery Johnson run around. I don’t think either of these teams are worth of the playoff at the moment, but I like Kansas State (-5.5) at home with a reasonable line to cover. Six points should not be too much to ask for.

Dean’s Pick: Man, these Big 12 games are becoming tricky to pick. Utah proved last week that its likely the best team in that league. That the winner of such a trash conference gets an automatic bye into the quarterfinals is just so wrong. 

And yet here we are - Oklahoma State a narrow underdog at Kansas State. These two could also get the bye after winning the Big 12... that's where we are at in college football. I'm done with Oklahoma State - give me the Wildcats (-5), who looked like trash in getting smashed by BYU. I bet they rebound this week in the Little Apple. 

Louisville (+5) at Notre Dame | Peacock |3:30 PM

Matt’s Pick: The Irish are playing a little better. Louisville had a really tough running the ball against Georgia Tech. I think Notre Dame steps up and gets a big win at home. They’re not “for real” with a win, but this is a big step in the right direction. Notre Dame by a touchdown. Irish (-5).

Ryan’s Pick: I’m sticking with my preseason guns here. I don’t think Notre Dame is a playoff team. Give me Louisville (+5). The Irish have done nothing to change my mind.

Dean’s Pick: If you loved the Olympics here's the good news - that Peacock subscription you probably still have is the only way you are watching this game. Thanks Snoop Dogg. Side note - how is Snoop Dogg on NBC, and Puff Daddy in prison? I think a lot of folks would have bet the other way circa 1998. 

Nonetheless, the best game in the country, non-UGA-Bama category, is only on a streaming service... This is actually a big game. Louisville had all it could handle a week ago against Tech. The Irish were as pedestrian as usual in a 28-3 win over Miami of Ohio. 

Give me Louisville (+5) and the five points. I'm not in love with Notre Dame. If they want any hope of getting into the playoff this is a must-win game. 

Oklahoma (-2.5) at Auburn | ABC |3:40 PM

Matt’s Pick: What an ugly game. Two atrocious offenses. Two pretty good defenses. The first team to 10 points wins? I’ll take the Sooners on the road. Auburn’s a train wreck. Classic Auburn will probably come out and win this game. I’ll be the dummy, and stick with the Sooners on the road though. Oklahoma (-2.5).

Ryan’s Pick: What a disaster of a game. Oklahoma is in the middle of a quarterback change, and Auburn might just be an awful football team this year. I believe we are due for an unexpected Auburn home win with perhaps a chance of chaos. That’s my forecast for this game. Auburn (+2.5).

Dean’s Pick: Well, Auburn is a mess.

Five home games in a row, and the Tigers could not be in a worse mental state. This, very well, could get ugly - I mean old man crying ugly - very soon. 

Oklahoma has its own issues, but that's for another time. I will take the Sooners (-2.5), but I don't like it.

Illinois (+17.5) at Penn State | NBC |7:30 PM

Matt’s Pick: Oh is this that “white-out” game? The special one? No way Illinois could come in there and give them a fight, right? Give me a Lee Corso “Not so fast buddy!”. Illinois can play. They’ll be ready. They’ve got a strong defense, a reliable run game, and above-average quarterback play. They may lose, but they won’t get blown out. Illinois (+17.5).

Ryan’s Pick: I never really understood why these two always poke fun at the white out game. Most schools do stuff like this. However, I think Illinois is good enough to hang in there. I like the Illini (+17.5).

Dean’s Pick: I'm just going to tell you right now that Illinois can straight up beat Penn State. So give me the homecomers - Illinois (+17.5)

We Are? About to collapse. 

Oregon (-24.5) at UCLA | FOX |11:00 PM

Matt’s Pick: Too many points. Too many points. The Bruins hung around just enough against LSU on the road. They can man up and give Oregon a challenge, for at least one half. Bruins fight hard and keep this one halfway close. UCLA (+24.5).

Ryan’s Pick: I think Oregon will carry the momentum it built a couple of weeks ago by winning big over its in-state rival. I've got a feeling that the Ducks are not near as bad as they looked in the first couple of weeks. Screw it, I’m taking Oregon (-24.5) to cover a big line on the road.

Dean’s Pick: UCLA really hung in there against LSU a week ago. The Bruins face an even bigger challenge this week with the second Big Ten game of the year - this time against the Ducks. Oregon has not been what we thought they would be at the start of the season - tight wins over the Vandals and Broncos gave Oregon the Idaho state title, but a lower ranking, too. 

I'm tempted to just take Oregon (-24.5) and the massive points because I wonder if UCLA is already worn out because of travel (at LSU; at Hawaii) and the physicality of what they had to deal with last week. That this is an 8 PM local kick is fun for those of us on the east coast, but at some point UCLA is going to crash - maybe next week when they play a noon local game in Pennsylvania (9 AM LA time). 

We are asking a lot of UCLA right now. Matt has picked them two weeks in a row. You should never pick UCLA two weeks in a row unless we are talking coeds. 

Georgia (-1.5) at Alabama | ABC |7:30 PM

Matt’s Pick: Georgia can absolutely lose this game, but I’m expecting their best game of the season. They’ve got the tools and talent to win this game. They’ve got what they need. This is about drawing up a game plan and executing it. Winning the battle in the trenches. Making open-field tackles on defense and creating explosive plays on offense. This Georgia team can get it done. Give me Georgia (-1.5).

Ryan’s Pick: I have been leaning towards Alabama winning for most of the last couple of weeks. Some of that was a little bit of what I will think end up being an overreaction to the Kentucky game. Some of it is that a lot of the signs do point towards an Alabama W.

I think there is more on the line for Georgia. The rest of the way is easier for Alabama than it is for the Dawgs. Georgia could only afford to slip up one more time if it fell on Saturday. I am not very confident, but I think Georgia has the better team and the biggest different between these two teams retired in January. I’ll take Georgia (-1.5).

Dean’s Pick: I'm taking Georgia because I think they will win the game. It is that simple. When you have a line that's below three you are really trying to split the baby by picking one team to win and the other to cover, so give me Georgia (-1.5).

Again, a result either way would not be a surprise, but UGA under Kirby has been very good in these situations - including against Alabama in the 2022 CFP NCG. 

As Matt said, this is about execution, and I am betting that Georgia gets its act together and executes on offense like it did against Clemson and Tennessee Tech. And for all of the hand wringing about not scoring a TD in the first half against Clemson, Georgia was moving the ball plenty and was clearly the better team. That they exploded on them in the second half wasn't surprising at all. Georgia is outscoring teams 38-6 in the third quarter. That's lopsided. Bama is outscoring teams 28-14 in the third... so pay attention to that. 

Season ATS

Matt 18-18

Ryan 14-22

Dean 18-18

 
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