Georgia Bulldogs Listed as 8.5-point favorite over LSU

October 7, 2018
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ATHENS - Dean Legge’s guide for betters heading into this weekend’s game with Vanderbilt.

 

On Sunday No. 2 Georgia opened as an 8.5-point favorite at LSU. The 8.5-point line means the Bulldogs have about a 75% chance to win the game. Some in the gaming world indicated that the game could have opened as low as UGA -6.5, but UGA was heavily bet on. The increase moved Georgia from about a 2/3rds chance to win the game to a 3/4ths chance to win - which is relatively significant

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Twice this season the Tigers have been underdogs (+3 vs. Miami; +10 at Auburn). They won both of those games. Since the start of the 2016 season, LSU has only been an underdog six times in 31 games (19% of games). The Tigers are 3-3 straight up in those contests. LSU hasn’t be

 

This series is one of the tightest lines the Bulldogs have played in the last 20 years. The average line for this game since 1998 is LSU -1.6. However, in seven of the ten games have been slotted with the favorite team being listed as a 3.5-point favorite or fewer. Only once in the last 20 years has either team been favored by double digits (2011 LSU, -12). UGA has never been favored by double digits in the history of the series.

 

The over in the series has really performed. The over is 7-2 in this game since 1998. Meanwhile, UGA is 7-5 vs. LSU straight up since 1990.

 

Georgia continues to be highly ranked. Under Kirby Smart, after the win over Vanderbilt ranked UGA teams are 17-0 against unranked teams - winning by an average score of 39-14. In five of those 17 contests the opposing team scored ten points or fewer. In nine of those games the Bulldogs scored 41 points or more.

 

With the win over No. 24 South Carolina, Georgia is now 27-50-4 against ranked teams on the road. Kirby Smart is 2-2 against ranked teams on the road and 7-5 overall against ranked teams.

 

THE NATIONAL LANDSCAPE

 

Notre Dame is surging - at least ESPN is going nuts for the Irish. That’s what’s going on. The Irish don’t have much in their way in the next six games because of how bad the ACC has become and how poorly USC has played this fall so far. The Irish only have to handle Pitt, Navy, Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse and USC left to play.

 

This is the same Notre Dame program that had to defeat Vanderbilt on the final play of the game.

 

Meanwhile Alabama continues to churn, but allowed 31 points to Arkansas in the process. Ohio State goofed around with Indiana for sometime before recording a 49-26 win. Clemson played its best game of the season at Wake Forest.

 

Notre Dame and Clemson may not play a ranked foe in their combined 12 games. Meanwhile, Ohio State only has Michigan remaining. So there is a clear path for those three teams. We can’t say the same about both Alabama and UGA. They both still have to deal with ranked Florida, LSU (2), Auburn (2), Mississippi State and Kentucky.

 

The national media might be turning on Clemson favor of the Irish. But we’ve still got a ways to go. The Tigers really did turn it on Saturday. It might have been Wake Forrest, but the more and bigger the wins the better. Clemson, frankly, needs Miami to win as much as possible for the ACC title game to matter, which it has not since the Tigers have won it. Notre Dame really, really needs USC to get better and matter quick.

 

Meanwhile, the 12s - the Big and Pac - are in real trouble. The Big Ten could be in trouble if Ohio State is somehow sidetracked. The SEC seems on path to certainly get one program into the CFP… the question is if it will get two. Right now pundits are indicating that the conference will get two teams in.

 

Could UCF get into the playoff? It is hard to think they could get in without a total disaster sticking the SEC the way the 12s have been hit with inconsistent play from top teams.

 

TELL ME ABOUT THEM DAWGS

 

Georgia maintained its No. 2 ranking in this week’s AP Poll. The Dawgs are ranked No. 2 in this week’s AP Poll. No. 3 Ohio State trails UGA by six points this week - meaning about four voters moved the Buckeyes in front of the Dawgs based on what happened this weekend.

 

All time Georgia is 11–2 as the No. 2 team in the country.

 

Meanwhile, Georgia has won each game it has played by double digits. It is 4-0 in SEC play with the meat of the schedule upcoming. According to the AP, The SEC has a season-high eight teams in the latest Associated Press college football poll. Winning in this league really matters.

 

WITH A SHIVER IN MY BONES JUST THINKING ABOUT THE WEATHER

 

The Googles tells us that that in the hour of kickoff this Saturday in Baton Rouge we should expect it to by sunny. There is a 1% chance of rain for the game. Kickoff should check in around 77 degrees. The close of the game should be about 73 degrees. Wind for the game is set to be nominal.

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