Dawg Post's Weekend Picks for UGA Football and the Rest of College Football Are In
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 1 UGA football hosts the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday for a national game on ESPN. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
According to FanDuel, the Bulldogs still have outstanding +200 odds to win the national championship for the third consecutive season.
Texas (-6.5) vs Oklahoma | ABC |12 PM
Matt’s Pick: I’m rocking with Texas. I think this will be a great game, but I see the ‘Horns pulling away at the end. They’re winning big games and they’re crushing teams like Baylor and Kansas, something the old Texas teams just couldn’t do. They have an excellent quarterback and legit NFL talent all over the field. Biggest Texas/Oklahoma game in years, and I’ll take Texas to cover the (-6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I mulled over this one a little bit, and I am riding with the Sooners (+6.5). I think that Oklahoma pulls out a win as well. I have gone on record calling a lot of teams overrated or frauds this year. I think Texas might be in that category. I am pretty sure Florida State and Ohio State are.
Dillon Gabriel is balling out. Texas has not faced a quarterback in the same world as him. Oklahoma will win this game if it turns into a shootout. I am not convinced that Texas can score with them. Quinn Ewers is really talented, and he drops some dimes. He also misfires a little more than you’d like. Texas might be missing a couple of key guys as well. It would be very Texas of them to lose this game after beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and climbing to No. 3 in the country.
Dean’s Pick:
I love this game. It is one of the great games of our sport. The Red River Rivalry is pure Americana. It is over the top, but what about Texas isn't? Texas has not been as steady as Oklahoma this season, but they've shown more in a few results than OU has at the start of the season. This is a game the Horns should win. It feels like we will see this game one more time in the Big 12 Championship Game, but let's just see what happens with both of these teams over the next few weeks. The Big 12 season is just now underway, and four teams are undefeated - although no one has played more than twice.
It can't be shocking that newcomers UCF, Houston and Cincinnati have yet to win a Big 12 game. It can't be shocking that UT and OU are at the top of the table having seemingly gotten their collective acts together (we will see if that continues).
This will be an SEC game a year from now, and I will be circus to see if ABC will leave the game at Noon as has so long been the case for this rivalry... that doesn't have to continue. And there have been a few times in the past that the game hasn't kicked 11 AM local.
I have Texas (-6.5) in this one. I'm not sure I am super confident, but it seems Texas has the big men and skill guys to not just win, but cover.
LSU (-6.5) at Missouri | ESPN |12 PM
Matt’s Pick: This one’s tricky. LSU can flat out score, but they can’t stop anyone. They have two losses, their season is over, and now they’re running into an undefeated Missouri team playing great football. On the road. At noon. I can see LSU coming out flat. Missouri can play, and they can absolutely win this game at home. I’ll take Missouri (+6.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Missouri is playing well right now and LSU is not. Man, LSU just is not who we thought it was. We know that even the best teams can go on the road to Missouri and struggle. I will take Mizzou (+6.5) at home with the points.
Dean’s Pick: Missouri is undefeated; playing at home; and is a touchdown dog to at LSU team that has already given up 30 points or more three times in five games. Missouri, which is 5-0, if we are honest, has not been great this season. But they have won. A four-point win over Middle Tennessee State, miracle FG win from St. Louis over Kansas State and one-score win over Memphis didn't inspire me. But Missouri is undefeated, and that speaks for itself. LSU should watch out. This is a critical game from Brian Kelly. I will take the Bayou Bengals (-6.5) in this early start.
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Alabama (-2.5) at Texas A&M | CBS |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Aggies keep it close, but I think Alabama will do just enough to win by a field goal or more. This Alabama tam is playing with a chip on their shoulder, and their defense is good enough to hold off the Aggies for a win. If Alabama can get the run game going and take care of the football, I think they should come out with a tight win. Alabama (-2.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Alabama is going to get a little better and a little better. They are not a top powerhouse, nor do I think the Tide is a true contender. Texas A&M looks a little better with Max Johnson, and the Aggies definitely look better this year than last year’s disaster.
It is tough to win on the road in the SEC. That is starting to be more commonly said, but it is so very true. I like Alabama better than Texas A&M, and this spread is low enough for me to feel confident about the Crimson Tide (-2.5) covering.
Dean’s Pick: Yeah, this is a low line. I think Alabama is getting it together, but this game will prove that out. Road favorite? Nick Saban and the Tide are 7-3 straight up as road favorites over their last ten games, and one of those three losses was Bama's last visit to A&M. Man, the numbers tell you to take the Aggies and the near field goal in points. I am tempted, but I am going to give Bama one more chance to get it right in my eyes. This game may well be for the West, and I am going to take Bama (-2.5) to win and cover.
Notre Dame (-7) at Louisville | ABC |7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Notre Dame is just too talented. I think they’ll go on the road and cover. They did the same last week against a solid Duke team, and I think they’ll get it done this week due to to their defense. Irish (-7).
Ryan’s Pick: Both of these teams were in some crunch time drama and pulled out wins in the end last week. NC State shot itself in the foot and the Irish gutted it out in the end. Both teams survived. Notre Dame got it done last week at Duke- who is a pretty good team. Notre Dame’s (-7) playoff hopes stay alive, and I think it gets a more comfortable win this week at Louisville.
Dean’s Pick: Notre Dame is playing one of the toughest schedules in college football this year, and a quick road trip Louisville at night is going to be a challenge. Those Louisville fans are a cross between South Carolina's obnoxiousness and the physical danger of LSU fans. So the Irish had better be ready to party Saturday night, or they could lose. The Cards have already won three tight games away from home against Tech, Indiana and NC State. So I expect them to be ready. I will Louisville (+7) and the home points; Notre Dame wins the game.
Arkansas (+11) at Ole Miss | SECN |7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Have to take the Rebels at home. They can score, and I think the defense holds Arkansas just enough. High scoring game, but for some reason, I’m taking the Rebels (-11) at home.
Ryan’s Pick: I went with Ole Miss over LSU last week and the Rebels came through for me. I will take Ole Miss (-11) at home at night for the second week in-a-row. How funny would it be if Arkansas just went in there and blew them out? It’s going to be hard for the Razorbacks to stop Ole Miss from putting up points. Rebels cover.
Dean’s Pick: I trust neither of these teams. Arkansas can't seem to get it right this season. Maybe this is what the Hogs are. Adding Texas and OU to the league is not going to help them much. Then there's Ole Miss, and the Rebels have been all over the map this year. I will take Ole Miss (-11) to cover, but I'm not thrilled about it.
Fresno (-5.5) at Wyoming | FOX |8:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: I know it’s on the road, but I like Fresno State to bounce back and over. They have good QB play and Wyoming isn’t great against the pass. Tricky line here, but I’m still rocking with Fresno. Bulldogs (-5.5).
Ryan’s Pick: Fresno State disappointed us last week. I like this point spread a lot better than last week. I’ve got the Bulldogs (-5.5). This could get wacky.
Dean’s Pick: I don't like it when we all three pick the same result in a game, but Fresno is a solid team that belongs in the Top 25. They know how to win, and they'll have to lean on that knowledge this week. The Cowboys have only lost once this week, and the elevation could be something to get used to this week for Fresno. Give me the Bulldogs (-5.5) as they continue towards at New Year's Six Bowl.
Arizona (+17) at USC | ESPN |10:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Arizona played well aginst Washington, but I don’t see this one being very close. Arizona is giving up 250 yards in the air. Caleb Williams will sling it all over the place. IF the Trojan’s defense can improve even a litte, I think they’ll cover. Give me (USC -17).
Ryan’s Pick: USC is going to put up at least 50. The Trojan defense is a liability, especially when taking them to cover, but I will go with USC (-17) and feel pretty confident about it. I trust in Caleb Williams. He is on another level.
Dean’s Pick: The Trojans have a great offense. The defense? Still working. That said, we only have a few rules around here, and even getting 17 points, we never trust a school from Arizona. USC (-17) covers that big line at home.
Kentucky (+14.5) at Georgia | ESPN |7:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Lot of points here. IF Georgia covers, this will be the best they’ve played all season. I think they’ll win the game and play very well, but I’m taking the Cats (+14.5). If they can run it effecively, this game could fly by, and could end up being a th quarter game. Georgia wins but Kentucky covers.
Ryan’s Pick: The Dawgs are killing my record here.I keep taking Georgia to cover the spread because I think they are that many points better than these teams, and that is a pretty arbitrary way of looking at it. Like I’ve stressed, I don’t let the betting odds and spreads affect my feelings about a team’s performance. While there are negatives, I have a lot of positive takeaways from last week.
This Georgia team has had to win a couple of SEC games in the second half now. I think Kentucky has a hard time replicating what they did last week, but does a good enough job for Georgia to not pull away too far. I’ll go with Kentucky (+14.5) just barely. Georgia wins by about two touchdowns.
Dean’s Pick:
I've got the Dawgs here. I think they are the better team. I think what we saw with Kentucky last week isn't indicative of who they have been this season, and it sure looks to me like Georgia is playing better on offense than they did at the start of the year.
Now, there are some things to smooth out. You are only getting around ten drives a game (for instance, Georgia had three legit drives in the first half against South Carolin), so there is a little urgency that bleeds into the stadium that might not be quite right. That said, Georgia's defense can force a three-and-out each time they get onto the field, so there's that, too.
I have the Dawgs decisively in this one. Give me Georgia (-14.5) to cover this line.
Season ATS
Matt 19-22-2
Ryan 22-19-2
Dean 19-22-2
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