What Are Bettors Doing Heading into Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs?
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ATHENS - Georgia Bulldogs and coach Kirby Smart are getting ready to take on Sonny Dykes and the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Game in Los Angeles. And according Caesars Sports, the Dawgs are still a heavy, heavy favorite.
When lookahead lines were posted for every potential championship matchup on Dec. 5, Georgia was listed as 17.5-point chalk over TCU. After TCU and Georgia prevailed in their semifinal matchups, there was a shift for the opener. After opening at -13 and briefly reaching -13.5, Georgia (-450 on the moneyline) is now as 12.5-point favorite over TCU (+350 ML).
“There were 14s and 14.5s out there elsewhere,” said Joey Feazel, lead college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “I opened this at 13, and the market moved toward us and now a little past us with it at 12.5. Right now, it’s been all TCU money. I do think the Georgia-TCU handle will surpass both semifinals, and that’s with the Georgia-Ohio State handle blowing every other college football game this season out of the water. But would this game surpass the handle of an Ohio State-Michigan or Georgia-Michigan? I don’t think so.”
TCU has racked up 75.1% of the tickets and 91.2% of the handle among all spread bets, as well as 91.9% of the tickets and 96.0% of the handle for all moneyline wagers as of now. That includes the seven largest spread or moneyline wagers all being on the Horned Frogs. Two of them came from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, $1 million on TCU +13 (-110) and $500,000 on TCU ML +400 for a total potential win of $2,909,090.91.
Even if you remove Mattress Mack’s wagers, TCU is still bringing in almost three times as much money to cover the spread as Georgia and over seven times more money than Georgia for moneyline wagers. Other notable bets include an Arizona bettor placing $110,000 on TCU +13.5 (-110) and a Nevada bettor staking $80,000 on TCU ML +380.
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“It’s 13 points in a championship game, so I can see why TCU is getting this action,” Feazel said. “But I think the talent difference is huge. Sonny Dykes also had a whole month to prepare for Michigan, now he only has eight days to prepare for Georgia. We saw a rare sighting of Georgia’s defense getting shown up, so this could be some recency bias. It can be tough to lay it with a big favorite like Georgia when they looked vulnerable in their previous game.”
Meanwhile, the total for this showdown opened at 63. After first being bet down to 62, it has since come up slightly to 62.5. Despite 82.1% of the tickets coming in on the over, the over only has a slight edge in handle at 52.5%.
“There were some differences with some of the other opening totals elsewhere—one opened 64.5 and another opened 59.5,” Feazel said. “We’re now at 62.5, and I think that’s the right number there. We’re going to need the under in the end, even though I see sharp action continuing to come in on the under. I think the total could drift up because the public just saw two shootouts in the semifinals, so we’ll see over money for sure.”
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