Final Feelings: Are the Georgia Bulldogs Going to Win, and Cover This Massive Line?
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs are eager to fight the Auburn Tigers Between the Hedges in the 127th edition of the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry.
Matt’s Final Feelings: It’s Finally Feelings y’all, and the Auburn Tigers are coming to town.
Remember when this used to be a close rivalry? Back and forth every other year? Cold November games with divisions on the line? Those days are long gone. The Bulldogs have taken control of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
When it’s Auburn week, it’s hard not to think back to some of those classic games. 2002 was unforgettable. Easily one of the biggest wins over Auburn in program history. Sanford Stadium was rocking during the 2003 win. Ruining Auburn’s season in 2006 was fun to watch. Of course the “blackout” game in 2007 was memorable. The wins go on and on.
After an unimpressive victory last weekend against Missouri, I expect Georgia to come out strong and bring their “A” game against the Tigers. Georgia’s deeper, more talented and they’ve got the better coaching staff. Auburn hasn’t won in Athens since 2005, and it won’t Saturday.
Robby Ashford is going to have his hands full on Saturday. He’s a talented kid who can make some plays outside of the pocket, but he’s going to make mistakes and turn the ball over against Georgia. They’ve got some talented defenders as well, but they just aren’t consistent enough right now to play with a team like Georgia. Auburn folded against LSU and gave the game away in the 4th quarter. There’s no way the Tigers come into sanford Stadium and play clean football for four quarters.
Give me a 31-14 Georgia victory on Saturday.
On the recruiting trail, there will be plenty of 5-stars in Athens for the big game. A few official visitors, other 2023 targets, and plenty of talent in the 2024 and 2025 classes will be in town. There are lots of targets visiting Alabama this weekend as well, but the targets in Tuscaloosa this weekend will likely head to Athens for the Tennessee game next month. Just know this is a BIG recruiting weekend for Kirby Smart and the staff.
The Braves are once again NL East Champions. 5th year in a row. This was as sweet as it gets. This was arguably the best Mets team in the last 30 years, and they STILL couldn’t get past the Braves. It doesn’t get much better than that. The World Series runs through Cumberland, and I think the Braves have a real shot at going back to back. I’m all in.
Got back into watching Curb Your Enthusiasm again. That’s my background TV show during the day. My guy Larry Davis has to be one of the funniest guys on the planet.
Now onto the rest of the college games…
I think the Vols head to Baton Rouge and cover. They’ve got a nice little team this year, and I’m still not bought into LSU. I’m expecting a close game but I think Tennessee covers the -3 on the road.
Mississippi State is playing really well, but 9.5-point favorites? Even at home, that’s a lot of points against Arkansas. I still think the Razorbacks are a decent team with plenty of talent. I think the Hogs give the Bulldogs a tough gave and cover the +9.5.
I like the Bruins to cover the +3.5 against Utah. Always liked UCLA growing up. Maybe it was the colors. Maybe it was the great-looking cheerleaders. They’re 5-0, and I’m happy to finally jump on the Bruin bandwagon.
Kentucky (-6) looks like an easy bet. Maybe too easy. I mean, they have the great Will Levis at quarterback, right? Some think he’s a better NFL prospect than CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. If he can’t lead the Cats to a 7-point win over South Carolina, I don’t want to hear another word about the guy. Kentucky has some real problems if they can’t cover the -6.
Maybe I’m crazy, but give me the Aggies +24 in Tuscaloosa. That’s a lot of points. Also, if they lose by more than 24 then they’ve got BIG problems. They’re supposed to be competing with Alabama at this point. I can’t see them winning the game, but if they get blown out for a second week in a row, Jimbo might be in real trouble.
There you go. Dawgs don’t cover but win comfortably, and the Atlanta Braves are going to win the World Series. It’s going to be another awesome October.
The Georgia Bulldogs WIN the 2021 NATIONAL TITLE!
Check out DAWGSTRUCTION NOW!
Ryan’s Final Feelings: Well, last week was not expected. My score prediction was way off. I think I had Georgia winning 51-10 or something like that. Whatever. I think it is safe to say that almost everyone was way off.
Me and Dean’s trip to Missouri was unforgettable in a bad way. I am glad to be back in the great State of Georgia. I firmly believe the Peach State is Top 10. Missouri doesn’t sniff it. No hate, just truth.
I had fun on gameday, but our trip was a disaster. No sleep. No hotel room. There was a detour to a Jefferson City motel against our will. That has to be where I caught a cold. The rental car place could not have been more difficult to deal with, and the guy in front of us made it take forever. Bro, why does your rental car have to be white? If you are flying into St. Louis, why do you need to go to Chicago AND Memphis?
Onto Auburn.
This is not last week. The game will be in Sanford Stadium, and Athens looks like it will be crowded, so I am excited about that. Auburn is just not good. They aren’t as deep as Georgia; they don’t have the coaching staff Georgia has; and their stars are not as good as Georgia’s stars. The Dawgs should win big. They should’ve won big against Missouri.
One more thing about last week’s game real quick: When the lights were bright, and they needed to gut out a comeback win, the Georgia Bulldogs executed. I think that was really important to learn about the team. Before that game, we didn’t know what they were made of. Now, there were a lot of issues in that game that we discussed in Riding Home, but I think the fourth quarter was a giant positive.
Georgia is not as good as last year, and that does not mean they will not win the national championship again. They have a real shot to go back-to-back, and they are capable, but they might have to gut out a few more games than they did in 2021.
I don’t think they will have to gut one out against Auburn. Robby Ashford has never started a game on the road before. Welcome to the SEC, Mr. Ashford. I don’t think you’re going to have a lot of fun on Saturday. He is definitely talented, and he tossed it around against LSU. However, I have had a lot of baseball friends tell me he should be playing baseball. I wouldn’t know, but I think that is interesting.
Tank Bigsby and Jaquez Hunter are one of the best running back duos in the country, but they are not enough to beat the Dawgs.
I like Georgia 38-6, so yes, I think they cover the 30.5 points. A solid win and a fun weekend is what I am predicting. Todd Monken needs to scheme Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington more. I don’t think any defense has the capability of stopping them both.
Around the country, I am just going to pick some quick winners:
Tennessee over LSU
TCU over Kansas (Kansas’ run ends here)
Alabama over Texas A&M easily
UCLA upsets Utah at home
Kansas State over Iowa State
Ohio State big over Michigan State
I don’t have much else to say today. The Falcons might be kinda good, but it’s false hope. The Braves are really good. I'm amazing at fantasy football. That is all. I hope to see you guys at Paloma Park for our live show from 4 -7 on Friday.
The Georgia Bulldogs WIN the 2021 NATIONAL TITLE!
Check out DAWGSTRUCTION NOW!
Dean’s Final Feelings: To say it has been a tough season for Auburn is putting it nicely. Two of the Tigers’ three wins, over San Jose State and Missouri, were nail biters. The loss to Penn State was a 41-12 embarrassment we’ve come to expect from someone like Oklahoma. Auburn has played four games in a row at home.
Last weekend’s collapse against LSU featured poor defense by both teams with players running wide open in busted coverages. LSU scored its first touchdown when BJ Ojulari stripped Auburn QB Robby Ashford, which led to the score.
Auburn had gotten up 17-0 on poor play from LSU’s secondary. It wouldn’t not score again.
Ashford had the most productive night of his young career - going 19 of 38 for 337 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He’s quite quick, and he can make you pay with his legs. In the three games he’s played a far amount, Penn State, Missouri and LSU, Ashford has accounted for 37 runs for 94 yards. But all that running has also resulted in eight sacks.
Ashford has run nearly as often (37) in the last three games as Tank Bigsby (40). If that is on purpose or by happenstance isn’t obvious.
This season Ashford has a 54% completion rate, which is far too low in this league. Ashford can certainly throw on the run, so that’s something to watch.
All that said, Saturday is about Georgia. My suspicion is that folks are too on edge right now. Do you recall the Georgia-Florida game last year? The offense’s performance wasn’t dissimilar to the Missouri game we just saw. Proof:
Against the Gators a season ago the Dawgs’ offense started the game: Missed FG, punt, three and out, FG and interception.
Against Missouri last week the Dawgs started the game: three and out, fumble, three and out, punt and fumble.
Georgia’s offense, in both games, combined to score three total points those ten drives.
The difference a year ago was that Georiga was moving the ball slightly better against the Gators, and the defense wasn’t permitting any Florida points. Missouri was up 10-0 as Georgia struggled in Middle Earth.
In both cases it wasn’t enough - Georgia scored three touchdowns in a row against the Gators to close the game out before the half. Against Missouri, the Dawgs scored on six consecutive drives to crush midwestern souls.
How did Georiga play against the Gators? It was the worst offensive game of the season in league play. How did Georgia play offensively against Missouri? Pretty well in the second half, actually. 315 yards and 20 points on 47 plays - that’s a lot.
So which is it? Which Georgia team is it? There’s no such thing - that’s a question that prompts a false answer. People want black-or-white answers. They want to feel comfortable "knowing" that something was really good or really bad. But the truth is Georgia is all of the things you have seen in the five games you've seen. This is the same bunch that beat the breaks off South Carolina and the Ducks.
If there is a particular problem right now it is the turnovers. And Georgia’s defense, which is ranked No. 11 overall in total defense, and No. 4 in scoring defense, is really good.
Now, it isn’t so good that it can play defense while the offense is on the field. Only Illinois has permitted fewer touchdowns (3) this season than the Dawgs (4). That Georgia has allowed the third-most (9) field goals in the nation this season is something else to consider. That’s the proof that - even though this team isn’t as good as a year ago - it is still very, very good.
The fact of the matter is, Georgia pretty well cashed in against South Carolina and Oregon at will. The seven touchdowns in a row against the Ducks? SEVEN? Yikes. That was followed up two weeks later against South Carolina by scoring on 8 of the 9 first drives of the game.
That’s beyond efficient. What’s somewhat happening here is that Georgia’s offense is coming back to the mean. Playing on the road at night in league play has a way of doing that. Amazingly, Kirby’s Dawgs have only played six night games in league play (2016 Missouri, 2016 Kentucky, 2019 Vanderbilt, 2019 Tennessee, 2020 Alabama, 2020 South Carolina)
Lest we forget the win at Notre Dame at night in 2017, which was a one-point victory for Georgia. And the 10-7 over the Taters at night in Charlotte, which wasn’t an away game.
So six night away games, and the Notre Dame game. Seven games - half of those games were decided on the final play of the game. One of them was a loss. The other three were blowout wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee in 2019 and over the Cocks in 2020.
The point? Playing on the road at night - that can be a real challenge about half the time… at least under Kirby.
So now here comes Auburn trying to pull what would be the largest upset in a series that dates back to before the invention of the automobile in America. The biggest upset the Tigers have ever pulled came in 2001 when the No. 1 Gators (-26.5) came to town. Auburn used a 13-point fourth quarter to rally to the win. Damon Duval kicked a 44-yard FG to win it. It was an amazing win.
A season ago Auburn somehow took at four-overtime loss to Alabama (-20.5) at home after outplaying the Tide all game long.
Beyond those two games, Auburn has had a hard time as a major underdog. In 2020, the Tigers (+24.5) were smashed by Alabama 42-13. In 2018, the Tide (-26) destroyed the Tigers. Auburn (+20.5) played solidly, but lost by 18 at Alabama. In 2012, a very poor Auburn (+34) team was destroyed at Alabama 49-0. Auburn’s 45-10 loss at LSU (-21) in 2011 was the first of three games where the Tigers were blown out on CBS that season.
Here’s what I think happens - my suspicion is that Georgia will get off to a fast start and take something like a 24-3 or so lead into the half. From there UGA will cover the massive line - giving fans less opportunity for hand-wringing.
In other games I like:
Missouri +10.5 at the Gators
State -7.5 over Arkansas
Utah -3.5 at UCLA