Betters Flocking to Take Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs (-28) over Missouri Tigers
The most lopsided spread action is on a short road favorite. Liberty sits at -3.5 at Old Dominion, crossing that key number of 3 after Liberty opened at -2.5. The Flames have collected a whopping 87.7% of the tickets and 96.1% of the handle, leading the entire slate in each. Two top-25 teams are second in each category, with No. 1 Georgia (-28 at Missouri) capturing 87.3% of the tickets, and No. 11 Penn State (-25.5 vs. Northwestern) bringing in 92.8% of the handle.
There is a lot of betting intrigue surrounding this Week 5 college football slate at Caesars Sportsbook. There’s a top-10 team as a touchdown underdog. There are two battles between top-25 squads where one side is getting at least 60.0% of the tickets and the other is receiving at least 60.0% of the handle. There’s also a clash between top-10 ACC foes, with bettors siding with the underdog in that one.
No. 5 Clemson escaped with a double-overtime victory over Wake Forest last weekend. It doesn’t get any easier this Saturday, though, as the Tigers host No. 10 and fellow 4-0 contender NC State. Clemson was first listed as an 8-point favorite here but that is down to Clemson -7 and even reached as low as -6.5 previously. Yet, the majority of Caesars Sportsbook bettors are rolling with the Wolfpack to cover the number, as they’ve generated 59.2% of the tickets and 64.3% of the handle.
“Many bettors don’t really trust DJ [Uiagalelei], that’s what this comes down to,” said Joey Feazel, lead college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “He didn’t play terribly last week, but people thought Wake Forest should have won that game. In the beginning of the year, NC State was one of those teams that people were really on top of. They had that big scare Week 1 against East Carolina and not many impressive wins after that, so this will be an interesting matchup for them. But it’s in the hands of DJ and how that offense performs against the NC State defense.”
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NC State is far from the only underdog going up against a top-25 opponent that is receiving the majority of the spread action this week. A pair of unranked Pac-12 teams fit that bill, with Oregon State (+10) notching 57.5% of the tickets and 73.3% of the handle at No. 12 Utah and Arizona State (+25) securing 54.4% of the tickets and 53.8% of the handle at No. 6 USC. Ditto for Texas Tech (+8) at No. 25 Kansas State, with the Red Raiders winding up with 68.9% of the tickets and 83.9% of the handle.
The underdog in a top-25 game that has been the most popular spread bet by tickets, though, is No. 7 Kentucky. That’s right, No. 7 Kentucky is a 7-point road underdog to No. 14 Ole Miss. That line has even jumped up from its opener, as the Rebels have swung from -4 to -7. Bettors are more than happy to take the points here, as 76.3% of the tickets and 64.2% of the handle have come in on the Wildcats.
“I think the big key that may be attracting some Kentucky action is that [running back] Chris Rodriguez is back this week,” Feazel said. “Will Levis has been getting draft hype, but if we talk about their explosiveness last year, it really came down to Rodriguez. Kentucky’s also done it before as an underdog this season, they came in and beat Florida in The Swamp after Utah couldn’t do it. There was so much hype around Florida after the Utah win, and Kentucky going in and winning handedly was impressive.”
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Then there are the two top-25 affairs where the majority of the tickets and money are actually on opposite sides of the spread. No. 22 Wake Forest has reeled in 67.0% of the tickets, but No. 23 Florida State possesses the advantage with 62.2% of the handle as this line has grown from Florida State -3.5 to -7. No. 20 Arkansas is a 17-point home underdog to No. 2 Alabama after originally being positioned at +14.5. While the Razorbacks have attracted 64.1% of the tickets, it's the Crimson Tide that have seized 66.6% of the handle.
“I think what the public is seeing with Arkansas is that they do have an explosive offense,” Feazel said. “They think that Arkansas can hang in that 14-to-17 point range with Alabama because they can keep up with their scoring. But there’s big questions about that Arkansas defense, and now they have to go up against Bryce Young. This has definitely been a public vs. sharps game, but we’ll see how Arkansas shows up after that disappointing loss to Texas A&M last week.”
The biggest discrepancy between tickets and handle on any particular Week 5 spread comes in Navy at Air Force. Navy has swung from +16 to +14 thanks to corralling 72.1% of the handle despite Air Force landing 74.8% of the tickets. That is the only Week 5 spread where one side has gotten at least 70.0% of the tickets and the other has at least 70.0% of the handle.
Interestingly, the spread that has received the most action for Week 5 as of now is a Friday night Pac-12 showdown. No. 15 Washington squares off against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, and the Huskies are currently serving as 3-point road favorites. This spread not only is the most popular bet by both tickets and handle on the Week 5 slate, but it has gotten over twice as much spread money as any other Week 5 game (Iowa State at Kansas, which is currently Iowa State -3, has the second-most). Washington has drawn 83.8% of the tickets and 76.0% of the handle among all spread bets in this one.
“Bettors like this Washington team, they like the new coach [Kalen DeBoer] and the way [quarterback Michael] Penix [Jr.] is playing,” Feazel said. “This UCLA team may not be as good as their 4-0 record suggestions given how they’ve played against lesser competition. If you look at the preseason odds to win the Pac-12, UCLA was in that fourth spot behind Oregon and Washington was somewhere in the 15/1 range. Now it’s Week 5 and Washington is laying 3 on the road, and bettors can’t get enough of it. I can see this moving to 3.5, even though it seems a lot for Washington being on the road and on paper these teams are closer together.”
In terms of notable wagers, a whole lot of money came in USC moneyline earlier today. A Nevada bettor placed $575,000 on USC ML -4500 against Arizona State at Caesars Palace for a potential win of $12,777.80.