What to Make of UGA's Place in the National Landscape of College Football
ATHENS - Looking at the national landscape it sure seems that a narrative has developed that Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and the Dawgs are the teams everyone expects to compete for the national title this winter.
But, perhaps with the exception of Clemson, there are conference roadblocks for all involved - particularly Alabama and Georgia. Auburn, LSU and the rest of the SEC have proved that they have the ability to touch up whoever the SEC champ each season. A one-loss SEC king is common now.
All four national favorites have proven that they can recover from losing during the season. That loss can come in any form - on the final game of the regular season by double digits; a blowout loss on the road; or Clemson’s annual turd laying in league play.
What Alabama proved last season that no one proved before, is that if you build up enough of a resume not only do you not have to win your conference, but you don't even have to bother winning your division, in order to get into the four-team playoff. Twice in seven seasons Alabama has won the national title without winning the SEC.
No other school has done that in recent memory.
One would think that Clemson would have the best chance to pull that feat off soon. But that would involve the Tigers losing in its division (probably to Florida State or Louisville) and not earning the right to play for the ACC title, but winning every other game. The Tigers tend to play well in big games, but slop around and lose when they shouldn't. Losing the division to the likes of Pitt or Syracuse is pretty unlikley.
That could happen with UGA as well, but South Carolina or Florida maintaining only one loss in league play in 2018 seems as far fetched as FSU, Pitt or NC State doing it. Even if the ACC is dramatically less competitive than the SEC the cream rises to the top.
Ohio State has the most turbulent path to the playoff of any of the playoff contenders the media and Vegas favor. Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State are all in their division, and all of them seem to posses the capability of beating the Buckeyes. And even after the Fortnite-like struggle to get out of the Big Ten East, Ohio State would have to topple Wisconsin, North Dakota State or whoever else is in the Big Ten West these days.
Not an easy path at all.
When we moved to a playoff a few years ago, the narrative constructed was that conference championships would matter, and that you needed to win them to get in. It turns out this thing is just a big fashion show like before. If you are one of the best-looking four teams out there you are going to get in. Losing to Iowa by 31 and Oklahoma by 15 is worse than losing at Auburn by 12, or a strange three-point loss at 4-8 Syracuse.
The moral of the story, it seems, is multifold.
First, win as often as you can, and do it in convincing ways.
Second, if you are going to lose lose on the road - UGA, Alabama and Clemson all had a loss coming into the playoff, but all three were on the road. Oklahoma’s loss was at home to a mediocre team, but it was by a touchdown. Ohio State lost at home to Oklahoma, and lost by a lot - therefore seemingly lost the PR battle the second week of the season.
Finally, win the right games. This killed Mark Richt during his 15 years in Athens. Kirby Smart, however, seems to be winning the right games. Georgia and Auburn played twice. Both games turned into blowouts. Georgia won the right game. Oklahoma played 12 regular-season games. They won the right one when they beat Ohio State on the road. Clemson’s win over Auburn was critical to their hopes. A two-loss Clemson, even with an ACC title, might not be enough to hold off the Buckeyes.
It goes without saying that winning a conference title game is critically important, at least it has been if you are playing in it. The main question for those four national contenders (and everyone else) is if losing the SEC Championship Game really matters (again, if you are playing in it).
One of the biggest things that will be kicked around with two national powers in the same league but different divisions, is if the SEC should get two teams in no matter what. Is the SEC really that great that the loser of the game would get in as well?
That is difficult to see happening.
Then again, if the Pac 12 and Big 12 produce champions with multiple losses the SEC runner up will certainly have a shot. All of the conference title games will enter into the equation to if the SEC runner up will get in, but so will these games:
Auburn vs. Washington
Michigan at Notre Dame
Tennessee vs. West Virginia
UCLA at Oklahoma
Miami vs. LSU
Clemson at Texas A&M
Michigan State at Arizona State
Ohio State vs. TCU
USC at Texas
Clemson at A&M is a very, very important game nationally (Clemson should win it no problem). UCLA at Oklahoma is important as well. Needless to say, Ohio State is going to have to beat TCU or it might start getting the reputation that it can’t win big games out of the Big Ten.
Nonetheless, the Tigers, Tide, Dawgs and Buckeyes are the odd-on favorites to get to the playoff. But there are hurdles a long the way, and no one has to explain away any loses yet.
