ATHENS - If we believe what we read these days, Georgia will cake walk to Atlanta because the SEC East is so bad… comparatively speaking.
One reason why is that Georgia is viewed very favorably nationally as well. Only Clemson’s relatively weak path through the ACC (13/2 odds to win the national title) and powerful Alabama (9/4) are considered bigger favorites to win it all this season than the Dawgs.
This collective thinking seems to be as a result of a combination of the Dawgs’ perceived power (7/1 to win it all), and the perceived weakness of the SEC East (next highest chance to win it all are the Gators at 50/1).
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Is the SEC East as weak as we have been lead to believe? Is Georgia as powerful as we have been lead to believe? What if neither is quite true, and the division is tougher, and the Dawgs are weaker? Georgia would still be considered the favorite to win the division, but by how much?
Last season South Carolina (20/1 odds to win the SEC) lost four games - their annual loss to Kentucky along with double-digit losses to CFP participants Clemson and Georgia and a seven-point decision to the Aggies. The narrative with the Cocks is that Carolina is progressing, and that the win over Michigan to close the season is proof of that.
That narrative isn’t without merit. That Georgia has to travel to Columbia in late summer provides the clearest boulder in the path for UGA in the SEC. But Can Carolina survive an SEC schedule that includes the usual suspects as well as Texas A&M (16/1 odds to win the SEC; 66/1 to win the national title) and Ole Miss (50/1 odds to win the SEC) from the West? History has told us no as Carolina has only won the division once, and that was with a three-loss season in 2010.
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The Gators (14/1 odds to win the SEC), after melting down for the second time in five seasons, made a coaching change to Dan Mullen. The former Mississippi State coach has proven his abilities over time in Starkville. But the Gators have issues at many spots - namely quarterback.
The schedule is daunting for the Gators, too. Five legit games in a row from September 8 - October 6 will prove if this program is ready for prime time. It is hard to see a path for the Gators to win the SEC East, but could they resurface as a legit contender for the future? Could they take a swipe at Georgia in Jacksonville?
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Time will tell if Jeremy Pruitt has the ability to win an SEC title at Tennessee (50/1 odds to win the SEC). This season the Vols have the fortune of playing the Gators, UGA, Auburn and Alabama in a five-week period. Tennessee, put simply, isn’t good enough to survive that run… not many people are. The Vols might not be favored to win any of those games. But can they take down Auburn, UGA or Alabama along the way somehow? The Tide (3/2 odds to win the SEC) has to visit Neyland… the Gators do as well, but Tennessee toppling Florida at home doesn’t seem like too much to ask.
Then there’s Missouri, who will host a tricky away game for the Dawgs that no one seems to be considering right now. Missouri (20/1 odds to win the SEC) plays at Alabama and hosts the Hogs (50/1 odds to win the SEC), but if they can beat Georgia on September 22, they would be able to lose to the Tide and still get to Atlanta. Missouri is going to have to figure how how to defend better, and quick. Eight times in 2017 the Tigers allowed 30 points or more. They were undefeated when holding teams under 30.
Conventional thinking is that way for a reason. It is hard to see how Georgia loses the SEC East this year. It seems like South Carolina and Missouri have the best shot of stopping the Dawgs, but a win over Georgia alone won’t get anyone to Atlanta. Oddsmakers say the Gators have the best shot to get to Atlanta outside of the Dawgs.
Nonetheless, the winner of the SEC East is going to have to survive Georgia and the rest of the schedule, too. And there is nothing easy about that.
