The Georgia Bulldogs Against the Spread - The Vegas Spread
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ATHENS - Its always fun this time of year to predict the future. We should really call it “guessing”.
But predicting sounds much more adult. The truth is we don’t know what the future will hold, but the good news is that degenerate gamblers are there to help us along our way in their (and we all share this) season of boredom.
We have one such member, a self-described degenerate gambler (we probably have many of those - no judgments) who was nice enough to provide me with some predictive lines for the upcoming season for Georgia games. Many of his lines were close to what was released this past week by South Point, a book in Nevada which came out with a slew of games it calls “Games of the Year”
Below is a combination of South Point’s “official” lines, one you can bet this second, and the predictive model’s lines, which were provided by our favorite degenerate. In addition, the predictive model hit the UGA-South Carolina game right on the money (UGA -11), but was off a little on the rest. Again, the predictive lines are simply what the betting public “thinks” the lines will be when they come out in the future. In other words they are guideline - a guess - of what future lines will be. With that said, it looks like if you want to bet on the Dawgs to cover you had better be ready to worry about late-game scores.
That’s because only twice in the fall do the predictive computers and lines currently out think UGA will be anything other than a double-digit favorite. And the Dawgs are still favored in those two challenging contests as well (LSU and Auburn).
Predictive line: Austin Peay at Georgia (-40)
It will be the first contest of the season, and the Bulldogs are expected to be heavy, heavy favorites to lay the wood on the Governors. 40 is a big line. Georgia has only been favored by 40 or more a few times of late. They are 2-2 ATS since 2014 in those games. The highest the Bulldogs were favored by last year was 33. Perhaps the betting public is too high on the Dawgs. Perhaps Austin Peay won't score.
South Point: Georgia (-11) at South Carolina
The Bulldogs have won the previous three contests against the Chickens by double digits. But Georgia hasn’t been a double-digit favorite in Columbia since 2000 (UGA -10). This seems like an aggressive line considering the game is on the road, and South Carolina is considered to be the second-best team in the division. Maybe UGA is that much better than the division. We will find that out quick. We only have a few rules at Dawg Post, and one of them is always taking a home SEC team that is getting ten or more points.
Predictive line: Middle Tennessee at Georgia (-28)
A four-touchdown line at home is about in line to what we have seen Vegas do with a powerful Georgia program over a lower-level foe. Top-ten UGA has been at least a 33-point favorite over non-Power 5 schools at home in each game since 2009. That line might be a little low.
Predictive line: Georgia (-12) at Missouri
Georgia was listed as a 29-point favorite at home last year over the Tigers. Missouri narrowly covered that massive line. Being a double-digit favorite on the road is an odd thing in the SEC. Usually the home team should do fine against the spread in those scenarios. But Georgia seems to play well at Missouri. Only once, in 2016, have the Bulldogs not covered the line in Columbia by more than double digits.
Predictive line: Tennessee at Georgia (-18)
Out resident degenerate gambler has let us know that the system he usually actually has this at UGA -24. That’s far too much. Even UGA -18 is a massive number. The Dawgs haven’t been favored by more than 17 over the Vols (2014), and Georgia tried to save themselves late in that game, but lost. Vegas thinks the Vols will only win about five games this season - I’m guessing this isn’t one of them. Laying 18 feels like too much - be careful here.
Predictive line: Vanderbilt at Georgia (-23)
Vanderbilt won’t be able to stick with Georgia. The Dawgs giving up slightly more than three touchdowns feels about right. Take Georgia, which will likely play a little sloppy looking forward to LSU, who will stack points up in the 3rd to cover.
Predictive line: Georgia (-4) at LSU
These two rarely play, but when they do fireworks usually follow. This should be a CBS afternoon game, so the Dawgs will at least avoid playing at Tiger Stadium at night. The last time these two met in Baton Rouge the oddsmakers called this a toss up. LSU was favored by one in 2003 when the Tigers took a classic late. So that this line is more than a FG towards the Dawgs on the road shows that Georgia is very much considered the better team. The Bulldogs have not been favorites in Baton Rouge in the time I have records for (dating back to 1993). I think Georgia will win this game, but I would take LSU and the points.
South Point: Georgia (-15) vs. Florida
The predictive line had this game a little closer (UGA -11), so take that for what it is worth. Unlike last season, when the Gators had no interest in any way playing this game, the game should be more competitive heading into the second half. Florida was embarrassed last season. I expect them to fight this fall - and lose - but fight enough to stay within 15 points.
Predictive line: Georgia (-17) at Kentucky
So that’s a pretty big number to cover on the road. In fact, it might be too large for a sandwich game. Georgia will spend a lot of energy on the Gators, and will likely be looking forward to playing at home (for the first time in a month) against Auburn. If this game were to dip more to UGA -14 I would take the Dawgs. But at 17 I'm not so sure.
South Point: Auburn at Georgia (-3)
The predictive line said the Bulldogs would be a 2.5-point favorite at home in the fall, so it is pretty well right in line with what South Point thinks. And it thinks Georgia should win the game simply because it is the home team. These lines indicate that oddsmakers don’t think that Georgia is the “better” team, but that it will win. I’d lay the points. This number could grow depending on how both teams enter the game. The only two games South Point lists the Tigers and underdogs for are this one and the trip to Tuscaloosa. Take Georgia to cover.
Predictive line: UMass: UGA -31
The ultimate sandwich game. Its hard to imagine that Georgia will be good enough to roll through and cover all of these double-digit lines. UMass was bad last season - giving up a ton of points on the way to a 4-8 season. I just wonder if Georgia will score however many points needed to cover a 31-point line. They probably will, but the defense is going to have to be pretty well perfect. Take Georgia, and lay the points.
South Point: Georgia Tech: UGA -21
The predictive line said the Bulldogs would be only a slightly more than two-touchdown favorite over the Jackets in Athens. But South Point, perhaps a little too in love with the Dawgs, says that Georgia will pile drive Tech, and makes UGA a whopping 21-point favorite at home. UGA has been listed as a double-digit favorite over Tech five times in the last 20 years and have one 4-1 in those games (2014). But Georgia has never been favored by 20 over Tech, and has only won the game by more than 20 three times since 2002. Seems like a lot. Georgia wins decisively, but Tech covers a 21-point line.