Dawg Post's Weekend Picks for UGA Football and the Rest of College Football Are In
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ATHENS - Kirby Smart and No. 1 UGA football are headed to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. Here is what will happen this weekend for the Dawgs and all over college football... according to the Dawg Post crew.
No. 20 Arizona (+7.5) at No. 14 Kansas State | FOX |8:00 PM | Friday
Matt’s Pick: Boy this Arizona team has disappointed. Kansas State beat a good Tulane team on the road last week and came from behind to do it. Their best football is way ahead of them and I’ll take them at home. The half a point scares me, but let’s have some fun with it. Big home night win for Kansas State. KSU (-7.5).
Ryan’s Pick: This is a ranked Big 12 matchup by the way. I like watching Arizona because I like watching the wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. He may be the first receiver taken in the upcoming NFL draft. The QB-WR duo for Arizona has been hyped up as possibly the best one in the country, but as good as they are, that alone can’t just win you games. I am not sure if Arizona is a ranked team from what I have watched in the first couple of weeks.
K-State was losing to Tulane for a long time last week, before it secured the win. I am taking the home WIldcats for mostly that reason. The other reason is that I watched Arizona struggle with New Mexico’s QB and Kyler Murray variant Devon Dampier. K-State quarterback Avery Johnson Friday night games are weird. Pick the home Wildcats. I have K-State (-7.5).
Dean’s Pick: I love that we are getting this sort of a matchup on Friday night. The better the games are that everyone can watch all at once the better. This one is on "big" FOX (as we learned to call it back in the day) on a Friday night. Just as an aside - this is a good strategy for FOX. They won't be able to compete with ABC's Saturday night at all the entire year.
So zig when they zag - and put pretty good games on Friday night. Folks will watch - even if this is sort of an accidental placement.
Now, look I expected a little more from Kansas State than we got last week. I think the same could be said for Arizona these last two weeks. New Mexico scored 39 on the Wildcats in week one... that's a lot. KSU survived the Big Easy (visit The Boot!) last weekend.
The Wildcats are getting a little more than a touchdown. I will take that. Give me Arizona (+7.5).
No. 4 Alabama (-15) at Wisconsin | FOX |12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: Wisconsin’s running the air raid now? Not sure I like that with Alabama coming to town. The Tide keep it simple and run the football with success on the road. Couple of big plays in the passing game. This game will be close for at least one half, but Alabama rolls convincingly in the second half. Alabama (-15).
Ryan’s Pick: The final score of the Bama-USF game last week is not indicative of how much of a struggle fest it was. It was a red flag for Alabama. It was a bigger red flag when the Tide struggled with USF last season. I think Alabama (-15) is fine and will cover on Saturday. The B1G is gonna lose another one to the SEC.
Dean’s Pick: Look. Wisconsin isn't good. It's that simple. South Florida isn't at Alabama's level, and neither are the Badgers. I'm going to take Alabama (-15) to cover this line on the road. We visited Milwaukee this summer, and it was really neat. People were very nice. We ate at the Milwaukee Public Market. It was pretty swell.
I was a little taken aback when I saw a seafood joint when we went in there... I'm not trying to eat seafood not near a sea. I'm not trying to eat a lot of seafood to start with, but you get my point. Now, the rest of the food was legit. For me, Chicago has better food than Milwaukee, but Milwaukee was hanging in there pretty well. Fun town. Postscript - If Bama struggles like they did against USF... I mean. 👀
No. 16 LSU (-7) at South Carolina | ABC |12:00 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is a fun one. I think this game will be close, but I think the Tigers have too much talent on offense. They’ll get their points, and I think they can make just enough stops defensively to win by a touchdown. I’ll be laughing all day long if Brian KElly and the Tigers lose this one. I don’t think they will, and I think a late touchdown gives them the cover. LSU (-7).
Ryan’s Pick: I don’t like this. I don’t like this. There are some teams that have made it near impossible to know who they are through two weeks of football. South Carolina is one of those teams. Struggle to beat Old Dominion then turn around and crush Kentucky? Huh?
LSU is not as good as I thought it would be, but I still like the Tigahs (-7) here.
Dean’s Pick: Lordy, we've got ESPN's Gameday coming to Columbia. This is amazing. This has to be the worst early-season matchup in terms of the way these two teams have played this season. LSU and USC have combine to play pretty bad in three of four games.
And yet, here we are - checking our tetanus vaccine status, driving down Shop Road... attempting to avoid the barbed wire headed to Billy B. LSU fans know a thing or three about getting grimy, but at least they have cook.
Then again, LSU fans might feel quite comfortable driving on those roads in South Carolina. It is one of the few states in the country that has roads nearly as bad as Louisiana - nearly... Louisiana is "really" bad.
Rant: South Carolina food... its adequate at best. Let's be honest. Congealed Salad. Mustard-based BBQ. Shrimp and Grits - has to be done right. We can't half ass Shrimp and grits, and usually that's the case. Frogmore Stew (horrible). Boiled Peanuts? I mean, they aren't for me. I am a roasted peanuts guy.
Now, She-Crab Soup? Yes. Pimento Cheese - good in moderation. Perlou? Yes, but again, it needs to be made the right way.
Then we've got Hoppin' John. 100% No. What's Hoppin' John?
"Aield peas, or black-eyed peas, are mixed with onion, bacon and rice."
Just pass me the rice and the bacon. Keep the rest.
Now, LSU needs this one. Sugar Shane and the Cocks are playing with house money (for now). Brian Kelly most assuredly is not playing with house money. LSU needs a win here, but I simply do not trust them. LSU's players are way, way better than South Carolina's. LSU should win this game by 14 or so.
They won't. Give me them Cocks (+7) at home. Hear the Rooster crow.
No. 24 Boston College (+16) at No. 6 Missouri | SECN |12:45 PM
Matt’s Pick: Notmuch of a passing game for Boston College. The Tigers have had two tune-up games to start the season. They’ll be ready for a challenge. Boston College might be able to match them in the trenches to an extent, but too much talent for Missouri, Then win this one and get a 4th quarter cover. Missouri (-16).
Ryan’s Pick: Boston College is a fun team to watch. They really put it on FSU. BC also has another one of the Kyler Murray variants. His name is Thomas Castellanos and he is from Waycross, GA. He is fun to watch, and I am sorry Thomas, but I think Missouri is gonna be too much for you.
Missouri lost its key pieces on defense from a year ago and it looks like it hasn’t skipped a beat- it looks like it could be better actually. I think we will learn more about Missouri this week, as BC is the best team it will have played so far. I like Missouri (-16). This won’t necessarily be an easy cover, but the Tigers get it done.
Dean’s Pick: This elevated quickly. I'm sure no one expected this game - dispatched not just to Middle Earth, but also to the SEC Network early slot - to be one of the few ranked matchups this week. Missouri is noticeably better than Boston College. The Tigers haven't allowed a score this season. Folks needs to pat attention to Mizzou this season. I've got Missouri (-16) covering in this one - even with that tricky BC quarterback.
No. 9 Oregon (-14) at Oregon State | FOX |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: Lot of points here. Oregon State’s not a bad team and Oregon hasn’t been the team we thought they were so far. Big rivalry game and the biggest of the season for Oregon State. The Beavers keep this one close. Oregon State (+14).
Ryan’s Pick: I am going to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt. The first-two weeks have not been pretty. Maybe the Ducks are just not a contender. Regardless, I have dumbly chosen Oregon (-14) to cover.
Dean’s Pick: Oregon has looked really bad this season so far. Oregon State has been pretty unimpressive themselves. That said, this game is an early game - a rivalry game that the Pac 12's demise didn't end. The Ducks are fortunate to be 2-0. That's a big line - someone knows something I don't (what else is new?) give me the Ducks (-14).
Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida | ABC |3:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: This is an interesting one. The Aggies don’t have a quarterback who scares anyone, but the Gators have issues there as well. I think the Aggies will play enough stingy defense on the road to take this one in the 4th. Close game, but the Aggies cover and win by a touchdown. Texas A&M (-3.5).
Ryan’s Pick: I like this even less than the LSU-South Carolina pick. I am going with Florida (+3.5). I am taking the home team with the points. I read that Florida is thinking about doing the whole two quarterback thing. Do not play both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway. Don’t do it. The two quarterback thing DOES NOT WORK.
The home team with the points is my main reason here, but the Aggies burned me in week one. My lock of the week was for a cover over ND AT HOME. Riley Leonard did not throw a TD in that game and the Irish still won. Ridiculous.
Dean’s Pick: We've arrived. Texas A&M is literally do or die for Billy Napier. He won't survive the season if the Gators start 1-2. I doubt he will get to Jacksonville for that colonoscopy if he can't get a win in Gainesville on Saturday. And this is a winnable game for the Gators, who will play both quarterbacks this week.
A&M has a shot to get some momentum if they can get to the Swamp and grab a win. I don't have a great feel for this game. Part of me thinks that Florida gussies up and gets an upset win at home. But the last time they were about a FG underdog at home they lost by 24.
I will probably regret this, but give me the Gators (+3.5) and the points.
No. 5 Ole Miss (-23) at Wake Forest | The CW |6:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: The Ole Miss trains keeps rolling. They look for real, for now. They’ll add on and do what they can to rub it in late. This is a team that might need style points in these type of games down the road. Big win for the Rebels. Ole Miss (-23).
Ryan’s Pick: I want to watch Ole Miss play somebody that is good. It does not even have to be a contender, but somebody good. Ole Miss (-23) keeps it rolling.
Dean’s Pick: Ole Miss isn't getting stopped by a Wake Forest team that just gave up 30 to Virginia. The Rebels (-23) cover, as they get ready to conclude their junior varsity schedule next week.
No. 1 Georgia (-24) at Kentucky | ABC |7:30 PM
Matt’s Pick: I don’t see Kentucky doing much offensively. They don’t have the offensive line to keep this one close for a while. Great defense and a strong running game leads Georgia to victory. I can see a 34-6 type of game. Give me Georgia (-24).
Ryan’s Pick: I am such an idiot. I picked that freaking -53.5 last week. The Dawgs could have easily done it too. That is why it is frustrating. Kirby choosing when and when not he wants to smash a team into the ground. Georgia has not typically blown Kentucky out under Smart. All of the sigs point towards Georgia getting in there, trying to win in a quarter or two and then just chewing the clock, especially if it rains, which it might.
I am picking Georgia (-24). I don’t love it, but if South Carolina covers that against Kentucky in Lexington, it would be alarming if Georgia can’t.
Dean’s Pick: Pretty big line here. This is the 17th time Georgia has been at least a 24-point favorite against an SEC foe in Kirby's time at Georgia. Georgia is undefeated in those games | 7-8 ATS. So this is a tough one to take a hard look at.
One could think: UGA is just so much better than Kentucky - they are going to run all over them.
Or: Kentucky won't play "that" bad two weeks in a two.
My suspicion is that UK isn't going to get it together against this Georgia defense. The over/under on this game - sitting at 45.5 - seems to indicate that this game should be something like 34-11. I'm not sure UK scores double digits.
Georgia's defense has faced 21 drives. Five times UGA's opposition has gotten across the 50-yard line. Two of those drives came on the final drive of both games. That means UGA has permitted the opposition on its side of the field three times in 16 drives - or 19% of the time. Those three drives resulted in three total points.
Georgia's defense is going to be too much for this Kentucky offense that sputtered big time last week. I've got Georgia comfortable in this one. UGA (-24) covers the line.
Season ATS
Matt 10-10
Ryan 8-12 *** (Ryan picked “Wildcats (+1.5)” last week in the Washington State-Texas Tech | We gave him a win, but it is questionable) **
Dean 10-10