The Georgia Bulldogs are 7.5-point favorites over the Florida Gators

ATHENS - Dean Legge’s guide for betters heading into this weekend’s game with the Gators. 

On Sunday No. 7 Georgia opened as an 7.5-point favorite over the Gators. The 7.5-point line means the Bulldogs have about a 73.0% chance to win the game.

Twice this season the Gators have been underdogs (+7 at State; +1 vs. LSU). They won both of those games outright. Florida has covered the line in all of its contests except the upset loss to Kentucky.

Since 1994, the Gators are an average 7.64-point favorite to beat the Bulldogs. But those numbers are skewed by the Gators being overwhelming favorites before the turn of the century. Leaving those games out the Gator advantage in point spread drops to only 3.5. 

The two teams have split their last eight games - both teams have been favored four times each this decade. Two upsets - in 2012 and 2014 - stick out during that time. No. 12 Georgia (+6_ beat No. 2 Florida 17-9 in 2012 while unranked Florida (+10) beat No. 9 Georgia 38-20 in 2014. 

The favorite has won this contest 17 times in the previous 25 games. 

This is the 38th time UGA has played in a matchup of top ten teams. The Dawgs are 21-16 in those games. Florida is 3-2 against the Dawgs in top ten match ups between the two. 

Georgia continues to be highly ranked. Under Kirby Smart, after the win over Vanderbilt, ranked UGA teams are 17-0 against unranked teams - winning by an average score of 39-14. In five of those 17 contests the opposing team scored ten points or fewer. In nine of those games the Bulldogs scored 41 points or more. 

With the loss to No. 13 LSU, Georgia is now 27-51-4 against ranked teams on the road. Kirby Smart is 2-3 against ranked teams on the road and 7-6 overall against ranked teams. 

THE NATIONAL LANDSCAPE

Alabama will still have to get through a night game in Tiger Stadium, Auburn and the SEC Championship. The Tide have been so dominant that it is hard to picture them being left out of the playoff without losing twice. 

Clemson throttled NC State - clearing the path to playing no ranked foes the rest of the way. Beating ACC Coastal team in six weeks is the only thing in the Tigers’ way. Needless to say, Clemson schedule is about as soft as it gets. 

LSU slopped past Mississippi State to set up a winner-take-all game for the SEC West in two weeks with the Tide. Notre Dame was off, but much like Clemson there isn’t much in their way to prevent a playoff appearance.

Florida, Georgia and Texas were off this week. Oklahoma kept its dreams alive after running past TCU. Kentucky, yes Kentucky, is still alive at 6-1. The SEC East might be the best division in college football. 

The Big 12 is a mess. The Pac 12 is in worse shape. But the Big Ten really stubbed its toe over the weekend as Ohio State’s embarrassing loss to Purdue makes you question a lot about the Buckeyes, Urban Meyer and when, if ever, it is OK to criticize the Buckeyes head coach (particularly if you work for ESPN).

That loss was not OK. It shouldn’t be something that is recovered from. If Ohio State, with a 29-point loss to a team that lost to Eastern Michigan, gets into the playoff with a Big Ten title the entire system is broken. 

This should be about putting the best four teams into the CFP, and, frankly, I’m not sure how we are supposed to determine that with the schedule and paths some of these teams take. Would Ohio State survive the SEC? Would Clemson? I doubt Notre Dame would. Just look at the narrow wins for the Tigers over Texas A&M and Notre Dame over Vanderbilt. Ohio State just lost by 29… to Purdue… again, they lost by 29 points - that’s four touchdowns. 

Being a good/great team not playing in the SEC has become the biggest advantage in college football these days. 

TELL ME ABOUT THEM DAWGS

Georgia moved up to No. 7 in this week’s AP poll. All time Georgia is 30-6-1 as the No. 7 team in the country. 

Meanwhile, in every game the Bulldogs have won, Georgia has done so by double digits. It is 4-1 in SEC play with the game with the Gators serving as the second in a three-game stretch against ranked foes.

WITH A SHIVER IN MY BONES JUST THINKING ABOUT THE WEATHER

The Googles tells us that that in the hour of kickoff this Saturday in Jacksonville we should expect it to by cloudy with dropping temperature. There is a 13% chance of rain for the game. Kickoff should check in around 70 degrees. The close of the game should be about 65 degrees. Wind for the game is set to be around 11 mph. 

It is expected to rain on both Thursday and Friday in Jacksonville.