OT: Market 2021

3,798 Views | 21 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by PaulWesterdawg
ahurst344
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Anyone have any thoughts on the market for 2021? Ideally not from a political perspective....

The CPA in me makes me look back more than forward....

Any help/insight is appreciated!
Trackdawg073
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Depends on how fast vaccines get into arms.
PaulWesterdawg
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Independent of politics...

Around $4 trillion was spent prior to mid-October on bailouts related to Covid. Another $1b+ since then. That's above our normal deficit spending.

Someone has to pay for that. It won't all be billionaires.

If either of the 2 senate races go Republican, then Biden will probably keep the tax hikes at the $400k+ income level as promised. And he probably won't go after long term capital gains hikes. That's my opinion b/c the politics are so bad.

So...the first answer is...independent of politics...higher taxes are coming.

Separately, despite the hype from Fox News and others, Democrat Presidents have outperformed Republican Presidents on average since 1988 in regards to the growth of the Dow Jones stock index during their presidency. Trump had a good run overall, but 12 years of Bushes really drags down the averages.

So despite the hype, having a Dem in the white house doesn't mean death to your 401k. Regardless of Hannity and others b.s. on the topic.

Long term over Biden's presidency, I think the market will be fine. But as a country, we have to decide if transferring so much economic power to Amazon, Google and Facebook is a good thing. Or should 2 or 3 of those entities be broken up. Because the broader market isn't really up right now....a few tech giants are just running away and driving up the indexes.

Also, Vaccine distribution and adoption needs to accelerate so that the travel industry can get back on track. The pace of rollout especially in the South (that's a distribution issue so far and not demand) is a joke.
HunkerDownDawgs
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Energy stocks/ETF's were pounded by Covid as oil prices plummeted and airlines weren't consuming fuel. They dropped to about a third of their five year average and have an opportunity to increase by ~50% over the next 12 months. You said to not make this political, but the Biden administration and the Green New Deal will make things difficult for the large fossil fuel/oil companies, but I still like the play because I am more of a contrarian investor and like to take advantage of market overreactions to short-term issues. I am not a financial advisor though, so proceed with caution.
cantonk9
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5,4,3,2,1....

Locked
PaulWesterdawg
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As for big oil.....the Tech Oligarchs are an interesting bunch. The reason they want gas at $5 / gallon or more is so you will want to telecommute. They want you to consume more bandwidth, collaboration software, communication tools, etc.

With the pandemic, they didn't have to push for legislation which would drive up the price of gas. The pandemic took care of that for them. As people return to the office in 9-18 months, their attention will return to fossil fuels.

If you want a great read sometime...research how Tech Oligarchs are loved and hated by both parties.
Bulldawg1
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"....have to decide if transferring so much economic power to Amazon, Google and Facebook is a good thing."

this is concerning - not just their power, but what they will do with it? Will they cross personal privacy lines, affect free speech, use politicians to pass laws that make them more money, etc? Do everything they can to make people more and more dependent them? Squash the little guys and the mom and pops? Eliminate competition? Who holds them accountable, in other words? Us the people, with our spending choices?
jt10mc
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PaulWesterdawg said:


If either of the 2 senate races go Republican, then Biden will probably keep the tax hikes at the $400k+ income level as promised. And he probably won't go after long term capital gains hikes. That's my opinion b/c the politics are so bad.

Totally Agree.

So...the first answer is...independent of politics...higher taxes are coming.

Yep...

Trump had a good run overall, but 12 years of Bushes really drags down the averages.

This is spades...they WEREN'T good for the economy.

Long term over Biden's presidency, I think the market will be fine.

Hope you are right.


But as a country, we have to decide if transferring so much economic power to Amazon, Google and Facebook is a good thing. Or should 2 or 3 of those entities be broken up. Because the broader market isn't really up right now....a few tech giants are just running away and driving up the indexes.

This is very bad...this reminds me of the old Ma' Bell monopoly...but he do you get people off the crack rock?

I do know this. In the business I am in...it is typically agnostic to politics and who is in office.

Since by in large I am a Federal Contractor ( I do do commercial work), bigger government=more Federal Contract opportunities.

That said I am driven to build a business that is agnostic to politics. I am heavy into Cyber security and Cyber in general. I am also investing my profit into certain markets that will help grow my business...markets that are agnostic to politics. Its not easy and I usually find myself working 7 days a week. Not all day but lets put it this way. I went to the WLCOCP and the dirty looks given to me by my wife as I would talk shop between plays and at the half...

I am optimistic but I always am. You can't be a business owner and not be.
RaleighDawg
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Doesn't really matter. If you have money that won't be needed for 10 years or more, always put it in the market and make sure it is as widely diversified as possible. And just keep doing it as often as possible. You don't care if it is going up or down, just keep doing it regularly. anything needed from 3-10 years you may want to get some pro help and if less than that, find a safe good online bank account to hold in.

As far as predicting the market for the year, no one knows and don't trust anyone who says otherwise.

At least that is my simple discussion board answer...
PaulWesterdawg
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Watch the Social Dilemma on NetFlix. Independent of their size, the Artificial Intelligence powering our addictions to social media are stunning. With Facebook, Twitter, etc what's for sale is not "you". It's "the imperceptible shifts in your opinions over time."

That said...

Breaking up Amazon has to do with their destructive capabilities (intended or not) regarding global commerce. AWS is ultra high margin business which can subsidize the rock bottom prices in their retail business. And I'm being grossly, grossly simplistic in my language.

Downside of breaking them up....Alibaba can do the same thing. And not on US soil.
Bulldawg1
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yes, good documentary - I'm halfway through it.

yes, good point on Alibaba - and that is also scary. They guy who started that, started with very little - and now he is one of the richest people in the world - Jack Ma

yes on Amazon -
ahurst344
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Good stuff everyone. thank you!
LowIq
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i have no clue what the near future holds but sold every bit of my stock recently to make sure my capital gains would fall under 2020.

i have been in the market for 45 years.....stayed calm through all the ups and downs......this bunch about to go in is the first one that ever scared me......didnt like several of them but wasnt to concerned about the long term economy.......

really hope im wrong.
DawgInTexas
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Bitcoin
1949dawg
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Jack Ma hasn't been seen in 2 months after criticizing China...
HunkerDownDawgs
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HunkerDownDawgs said:

Energy stocks/ETF's were pounded by Covid as oil prices plummeted and airlines weren't consuming fuel. They dropped to about a third of their five year average and have an opportunity to increase by ~50% over the next 12 months. You said to not make this political, but the Biden administration and the Green New Deal will make things difficult for the large fossil fuel/oil companies, but I still like the play because I am more of a contrarian investor and like to take advantage of market overreactions to short-term issues. I am not a financial advisor though, so proceed with caution.
Energy Sector SPDR (Ticker: XLE) up 4.5% today, so good timing for my post ... of course it could be down tomorrow and a data point doesn't make a trend!
Gasdawg
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You want a horror stock story? I lose sleep over this...

Bought $1000 Netflix at $25 in early 2000s. Sold most few years later to get in on an ophthalmologist friend of mine's company. Long story short, missed out on 1800% increase and several splits in NFLX.
HunkerDownDawgs
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Yes, but think of what a great friend you have and all the free eye care you have probably gotten!
Gasdawg
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I'd trade his sorry ass for that stock back in a heartbeat.
ssidedawg
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Enron and Lehman Brothers. They can only go up.
ssidedawg
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PaulWesterdawg said:

Independent of politics...

Around $4 trillion was spent prior to mid-October on bailouts related to Covid. Another $1b+ since then. That's above our normal deficit spending.

Someone has to pay for that. It won't all be billionaires.

If either of the 2 senate races go Republican, then Biden will probably keep the tax hikes at the $400k+ income level as promised. And he probably won't go after long term capital gains hikes. That's my opinion b/c the politics are so bad.

So...the first answer is...independent of politics...higher taxes are coming.

Separately, despite the hype from Fox News and others, Democrat Presidents have outperformed Republican Presidents on average since 1988 in regards to the growth of the Dow Jones stock index during their presidency. Trump had a good run overall, but 12 years of Bushes really drags down the averages.

So despite the hype, having a Dem in the white house doesn't mean death to your 401k. Regardless of Hannity and others b.s. on the topic.

Long term over Biden's presidency, I think the market will be fine. But as a country, we have to decide if transferring so much economic power to Amazon, Google and Facebook is a good thing. Or should 2 or 3 of those entities be broken up. Because the broader market isn't really up right now....a few tech giants are just running away and driving up the indexes.

Also, Vaccine distribution and adoption needs to accelerate so that the travel industry can get back on track. The pace of rollout especially in the South (that's a distribution issue so far and not demand) is a joke.


This

What's worrisome is the interest rates at 0. At some point they have to go up. When they do....

We are living in a juiced economy. Could continue for a while but who knows. I think a stable and moderate POTUS like Biden will be a positive.
Gasdawg
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Sears, circuit city, and Quiznos. Gonna check on that as I haven't looked at my portfolio in a while. Making that down payment on a Bahamas condo soon for retirement.
PaulWesterdawg
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I moved a lot of assets to cash from mutual funds and stocks in the Fall expecting post-election riots. Basically expecting wide spread versions of what happened in DC last night.

Also expecting rising covid counts.

If we can make it through the next 3 weeks without:
- Protests no more violent than what we saw last night
- without any more derailing of vaccination rollout
- Iranians crashing a plane into capital (as threatened last night)

Then I probably made a mistake.

I think the long term capital gains tax threats are a gun on the table to get other things. Hopefully, I'm not wrong.
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