I will go into depth the later schedule prediction talks but I am going to do a raw reaction right off the dome of how I think the schedule will play out. This is my first time seeing the whole schedule.


Non-Conference:

11/02 - (H) NC Central: W
11/09 - (H) FGCU: W
11/13 - @ UNC: L
11/20 - @ GT: W
TBA - (N) Cincinnati: L
TBA - (N) UCF: W
12/01 - (H) Boston College: W
12/08 - (N) Duke: L
12/13 - (H) Alabama A&M: W
12/16 - (H) West Georgia: W
12/20 - (H) Gardner-Webb: W
12/29 - (H) North Florida: W


Conference Play:

1/02 - @ Ole Miss: W
1/5 or 1/6 - (H) Texas: W
1/09 - @ Auburn: L
1/12 or 1/13 - (H) Oklahoma: W
1/16 - (H) Miss St: W
1/19 or 1/20 - @ Arkansas: L
1/23 - (H) Florida: L
1/30 - (H) LSU: W
2/2 or 2/3 - @ Tennessee: L
2/06 - @ USC: W
2/9 or 2/10 - (H) Vandy: L
2/13 - @ Texas A&M: W
2/16 or 2/17 - (H) Kentucky: W
2/20 - @ Florida: L
2/23 or 2/24 - @ Oklahoma: L
2/27 - (H) Missouri: L
3/2 or 3/3 - @ Alabama: L
3/6 - (H) South Carolina: W


Final Record: 18-12, (9-9)


Again, will dive in depth later, but not to toot my own horn but I believe the last two years I have been within 1-2 wins of getting the exact record right. Now that does not mean I predict each game right except 1-2 of them, that just means I have a good finger on the pulse of the ceiling and floor of this program.

With that being said a quick few things. I believe off the top of my head that this will be enough to get us into the tournament again. Especially if we pick up even just one win in the SECT. I think like we have seen throughout the last two years is that CMW is due for one cold stretch and one hot stretch. I think this year unlike last year we are due for a hot start to conference play with a rough ending potentially. As long as we do not get too down on ourselves when that rough patch comes, or too high on ourselves when the hot streak starts, we should be able to put together a good enough body of work to build a tournament resume.

Last few pieces to note. Expanded NCAA Tournament field, so now 76 teams, really does work in our favor. As much as I love the mid-majors this benefits programs like us. Middle of the pack P5 conferences who are always on the bubble. Then lastly, only 18 wins might seem low, but that is the reality with a tough non-conference schedule and the SEC being as good as ever lately. That will be reflected come selection sunday.

Thanks for your work on this! Yeah, the cold stretches in particular are baffling. And they seem to be worse every year as well. I wonder if players often start having more talks with their agents during those points in the seasons...

You know, it is hard to say for certain.

Here is what I can say though, the last two years we are 0-4 in post season tournaments. Lost to two inferior opponents in the SECT, OU and Ole Miss, then got beat by two better teams in tough matchups in the NCAA tournament. My analysis on that is often times you suffer a bad loss like that, take a huge break off until your next game, which is against an opponent that is a level above you, it is really easy to come out flat and slow, which we did vs Gonzaga and Saint Luis.


However on the flip side let's look at it this way.

In 2024-2025 (Gonzaga year)

De'Shayne Montgomery --> Dayton
RJ Godfrey --> Clemson

Both ended the season with limited roles, and I remember them feeling both checked out. Both hit the portal.


In 2025-2026 (Saint Luis)

Somto --> Miami
Jordan Ross --> Cal
Jake Wilkins --> Cal

All three ended the season on not so great notes, with if I remember correctly it felt like they really had checked out mentally. All three hit the portal.


Does that mean I think that every one of these players was already mentally checked out talking to agents? I don't know. Maybe. Maybe not. It maybe feels like that as a fan watching and seeing the circumstances that shortly followed those games, but I could use Wilkinson and Silas as arguments against that.

Both ended their UGA careers with good showings in the tournament, both seemed to play hard. I think they might have known they were on bigger and better programs where they would be paid more, but still left it all out there. So who knows, it is impossible to tell. However the issue remains where come end of season when payday is looming, it is hard to convince 18,19,20,21 year olds to block that outside noise out when tampering is so rampant.

good insights on schedule.

i am curious about your thoughts on personnel.

it seems we are solid at shooting guard and both forwards.

perhaps weak at pg and center?

Touched on this in an earlier post so will just copy and paste it here.

I was very fortunate to graduate this year and life has been busy so I have not been as plugged since the end of the year and with graduation I no longer have a direct connection to the program I once had. So this information might be incredibly wrong and I have not done much follow up. However I believe the rotation will be:

Smurf
Blue
Kanon
Stagg
Scott

With the bench unit going in this order:

Dillione
Dunlap
Osauyi
Williams Jr.
Kemo (smurf brother)


The front court depth is questionable. I think Scott will be better than he was at Ole Miss, and if he plays like his Louisville days that will be big. Osauyi is a good defender and shot blocker. Both leave things to be desired offensively.

Dillione should come off the bench as this bench will need all the scoring help it can get. Dunlap should be the first or second guy off as well due to his shooting. After that you are taking a lot of flyers on guys and the rotaiton could shape up in any ways.

I am unsold/unknown on Kemo and Williams Jr. but by the looks of it they should be the "best" of the rest. Maybe the kid from Africa plays some early, but he seems like a long term project. Lots of young talent with minutes they can compete for so should be interesting to see how non-con goes as it will be really important.

I think our strength comes defensively and I believe Mike White should lean on the first 8 guys hard early and let the back of the rotation work itself out.